Tag Archive: U.S. Consumer Confidence

Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 2,300 consumers in the euro zone which asks respondents to evaluate future economic prospects. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism.

Latest Thoughts on the US Economic Outlook

2019-09-04

by

2019-09-04

US GDP, Q1 2012 - 2019
The US economy is starting to show cracks from the ongoing trade war. While we do not want to make too much from one data point, we acknowledge that headwinds are building whilst US recession risks are rising.

Read More »

Retail Sales Conundrum

2017-07-20

by

2017-07-20

U.S. Retail Sales All Weakness, Jun 2011 - 2017
Retail sales were thoroughly disappointing in June. Whereas other accounts such as imports or durable goods had at least delivered a split decision between adjusted and unadjusted versions, for retail sales both views of them were ugly. Seasonally-adjusted first, spending last month was down for the second straight time. Worse than that, estimated sales were just barely more than in January.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 27: Euro Surges on Draghi, While Yuan Rises on Suspected PBOC Action

2017-06-27

by

2017-06-27

ECB President Draghi told the audience at the annual ECB Forum transitory factors were holding back inflation. This was quickly understood to be bullish for the euro, and it rallied from near the session lows below $1.12 to around $1.1260, a nine-day high.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 30: Mixed Dollar as Market Awaits Preliminary EMU CPI and US Jobs

2017-05-30

by

2017-05-30

With the backdrop of US interest rates unable to get much traction, despite the strong probability of another Fed rate hike in a couple of weeks, the third since last November election, the US dollar mixed today. The chief story today, though, is not the greenback but the euro. The euro is trading heavily for the fourth session.

Read More »

FX Daily, April 25: Euro Consolidates Gains, Bond Market Sell-Off Continues

2017-04-25

by

2017-04-25

The US dollar is again at the fulcrum of the foreign exchange market. The dollar-bloc currencies are under pressure, along with the Japanese yen, while the European complex is posting modest gains. The euro is consolidating in the half cent below $1.09. Yesterday's marked up in early Asia saw the euro complete the 61.8% retracement of the losses since the US election, which was found near $1.0935

Read More »

FX Daily, November 29: Dollar Comes Back Mostly Firmer, but Focus is Elsewhere

2016-11-29

by

2016-11-29

FX Performance, November 29 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar correctly lowered yesterday, but most of the selling was over by the end of the Asian session, and the greenback steadied in Europe and North America. The dollar is firm against the euro and yen but within yesterday's broad trading ranges. The Australian and Canadian dollar's gains from yesterday are being pared.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 28: Dollar Sidelined, Krona Stabilizes, Rates Firm

2016-10-28

by

2016-10-28

FX Performance, October 28
The main development here in the last full week of October is the sharp rise in bond yields. US 10-year yields rose nine bp this week coming into today's session, which features the first look at Q3 GDP. The two-year yield is up four bp. European 10-year benchmark yields mostly rose 11-17 bp. UK Gilts were are the upper end of that range. Two-year yields are 3-5 bp higher.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 25: Germany IFO, Dollar Going Nowhere

2016-10-25

by

2016-10-25

FX Performance, October 25 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar has been confined to extremely narrow ranges against the euro, yen, and sterling. To the extent that there is much action in the foreign exchange market, it is with the dollar-bloc and emerging market currencies.The Canadian dollar was whipsawed by comments from the Bank of Canada.

Read More »

Shrewd Financial Analysis in the Year 2016

2016-09-04

by

2016-09-04

“Markets make opinions,” says the old Wall Street adage. Perhaps what this means is that when stocks are going up, many consider the economy to be going great. Conversely, when stocks tank it must be because the economic sky is falling.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 10: Yen and Swiss Franc maybe Drawing Support from Brexit Fears

2016-06-10

by

2016-06-10

20160610 Movers and Shakers FX Market
Once again, CHF was one of the strongest performers on the FX market. Next Monday we will report how much the Swiss National Bank had to intervene in our regular "Weekly SNB sight deposits" report. For the week, it is the dollar-bloc and franc that have maintained weekly gains. The US dollar weakened in the first half of the week as participants continued to react to the shockingly poor jobs report and shift in Fed...

Read More »

Futures Ignore Apple Plunge; Oil Rises Above $45 As Yellen Looms

2016-04-27

by

2016-04-27

For those who thought that the world's biggest company losing over $40 billion in market cap in an instant on disappointing Apple earnings, would have been sufficient to put a dent in US equity futures, we have some disappointing news: with just over...

Read More »

Global Stocks Soar On Stimulus Hopes After Miserable Chinese, Japanese Data; Short Squeeze

2016-02-15

by

2016-02-15

Bad news is once again good news... for stocks that is.  After a month and a half of markets unable to decide if they should buy or sell on ugly data, over the weekend, People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan expressed faith in the economy, ...

Read More »

Global Risk Off: China Reenters Bear Market, Oil Tumbles Under $30; Global Stocks, US Futures Gutted

2016-01-15

by

2016-01-15

   "We're gonna need a bigger Bullard"     - overheard on a trading desk this morning. Yesterday, when looking at the market's "Bullard 2.0" moment, which was a carbon copy of the market's kneejerk surge higher response to Bullard's "QE4" comments fr...

Read More »

Fast CHF and Gold Price Movements

2013-11-01

by

2013-11-01

Our CHF and Gold News Bar on our home page explains daily CHF and gold price movements based on the most important fundamental indicators in a few sentences. Keep in mind that the only Swiss fundamental data that is able to move the CHF must come from the SNB and from Swiss inflation data – … Continue reading »

Read More »

Fundamentals, FX, Gold and CHF: Week October 21 to 25

2013-10-27

by

2013-10-27

House Prices against income China US Britain
Major Fundamental Events The week contained a lot of important fundamental events, in particular Non-Farm Payrolls and preliminary “flash” PMI readings.   Highest importance for FX rates Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs) weakened to 148K, private NFPs to 126K, both against 180K expected. Especially the private NFPs were disappointing. The decrease in the unemployment rate from 7.3% …

Read More »

Fundamentals, Gold and FX Movements, Week October 7 to Oct. 12

2013-10-13

by

2013-10-13

Our weekly summary of fundamental news on FX that aims to explains price movements, with particular emphasis on the possibly biggest mysteries: the gold price (GLD) and the Swiss franc (FXF) .   Weekly Overview Hopes on a compromise between Obama and republicans on the U.S. debt ceiling and high U.S. initial unemployment claims  sustained …

Read More »

Fundamentals and FX Movements, Week September 9 to Sept. 13

2013-09-15

by

2013-09-15

FX News 0909-1509 gold silver CHF
The weekly summary of global fundamental news with focus on CHF and gold price movements. Friday, September 13:The leading news came from U.S. retail sales and the Michigan consumer sentiment. Retail sales were up +0.2% instead of 0.5% expected, sales excluding autos and gas +0.1% (vs +0.3% exp.) The Michigan consumer sentiment disappointed at 76.8 …

Read More »

Mainstream Economics , The Medium Run

Blanchard Macroeconomics 6th edition


Read More »

Global PMIs Contracting More – Are Stocks Overvalued?

2012-08-07

by

2012-08-07

Global PMIs July 2012
updated August 05,2012 We publish a detailed analysis of global PMIs and compare them with the main risk indicators S&P500, Copper, Brent and AUD/USD some days after most PMIs came out. Abstract: Thanks to positive US consumer confidence, stock markets are highly valued, whereas the Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) for the manufacturing industry are contracting …

Read More »

The Chinese Government, a bubble creator or when finally does China consume ?

2012-05-12

by

2012-05-12

The years 2009 to 2011 have seen four institutions that created bubbles in commodity, stock and real estate markets. 2008 and 2009 saw the massive Keynesian interventions by the US state and the Chinese government. In 2009 the first Quantitative Easing measures enabled a first flood of hot money into Emerging Markets. Summer 2010 witnessed …

Read More »