Tag Archive: U.K. Retail Sales

FX Daily, August 15: Animal Spirits Lick Wounds

Overview:  It took some time for investors to recognize that the scaling back of US tariff plans was not part of a de-escalation agreement. There was an explicit acknowledgment by US Commerce Secretary Ross that there was no quid pro quo. The US tariff split was more about the US than an overture to China. 

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FX Daily, June 20: Doves Rules the Roost Except in Oslo

Overview:  The prospect of "lower for longer" continues to fuel the bond and stock rally.  The initial US equity response to the Fed was positive but not strong and closed about 0.3% higher.  Asia Pacific equities followed suit with mostly modest gains, except for China and Hong Kong, where gains of more than 1% were recorded.

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FX Daily, April 18: EMU Disappointment Lifts the Dollar

Overview: A bout of profit-taking in equities began in the US yesterday and has carried through Asia and Europe today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the first time in five days, while the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is snapping a six-day advance.  The Nikkei gapped higher to start the week and a gap low tomorrow would undermine the technical outlook.

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FX Daily, July 19: Greenback Extends Gains

The US dollar is extending its recent gains against most of the world's currencies.   We continue to see the most compelling case for the macro driver being the diverging policy mixes.  There are also more immediate factors too.  The surprisingly poor UK retail sales report, for example, managed to do what the Brexit chaos and softer than expected CPI fail to do. 

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FX Daily, June 14: Dollar Punished Ahead of ECB

The US dollar is slumping against all the major currencies in the aftermath of the hawkish Federal Reserve. In fact, the inability of the greenback to hold on to the gains scored in the initial reaction to the Fed's hike, optimism on the economy, and the signal of hikes in September and December, foretold today's push lower.

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FX Daily, April 19: Markets Calm But Lack Immediate Focus

A light news stream and less trade rhetoric lend the equity markets a positive impulse amid a strong US earnings season while leaving the dollar narrowly mixed. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5% and is up 1% for the week with one session left. It would be the second consecutive weekly advance. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 has edged higher for a third consecutive session. It is up about 0.7% for the week, and if sustained, would extend the advance...

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FX Daily, February 16: Worst Week for the Dollar since 2015-2016, While Stocks Continue to Recover

Nearly all the major currencies have risen at least two percent against the US dollar this week. The Canadian dollar is an exception. It has risen one percent this week ahead of today's local session. Sterling is becoming another exception after disappointing retail sales. It is up just shy of two percent. The Dollar Index is off 2.3% on the week, which would be the biggest weekly loss since 2015.

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FX Daily, December 14: US Rates Bounce Back, but Dollar, Hardly

US interest rates have recovered the drop seen after the FOMC yesterday, but the dollar at best has been able to consolidate its losses and at worst, seen its losses extended. The Fed boosted its growth forecasts and lower unemployment forecasts. Yet its interest rate trajectory and inflation forecasts were largely unchanged. Yellen, as her recent predecessors have done, played down the implications of the flattening of the yield curve.

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FX Daily, November 16: Euro Extends Pullback

After rising to its best level since October 20, the euro reversed direction yesterday and has extended its pullback today. The unexpected tick up in US core CPI and better than expected retail sales may have helped spur the euro losses after three cent run-up over the past several sessions. There bearish candlestick (shooting star) leaves the late euro longs in weak hands.

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FX Daily, October 19: Kiwi Drop and Sterling Losses Punctuate Subdued FX Market

The 30th anniversary of the 1987 equity market crash the major US benchmarks at record highs. The drop in the market was at least partly a function of the lack of capacity, sufficient instruments, and regulatory regime. Each of these factors has been addressed to some extent. Circuit breakers have been introduced, and have evolved. The financial capacity has grown immensely.

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FX Daily, September 20: Shrinkage and Beyond

After much anticipation, the FOMC decision day is here. Much of the focus is on the likely decision that the Fed will allow its balance sheet to shrink gradually. No other country who employed quantitative easing has is in a position to begin unwinding the emergency expansion of its balance sheet. The Fed's experience in QE, communication, and now unwinding, will be part of the information set other central banks can draw upon.

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FX Daily, August 17: Euro Softens on Crosses, Treasuries Stabilize

The US dollar had steadied after softening in the North American afternoon yesterday when the dissolution of President Trump's business councils as a series of executives stepped down.  The FOMC minutes added more fuel to the move. 

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FX Daily, June 15: Dollar Trades Higher in Wake of the FOMC

The US dollar gains scored yesterday in response to what appeared to be a more hawkish FOMC than expected have been extended today. The euro and the Swiss franc have recorded new lows for the month.

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FX Daily, May 18: Some Respite from US Politics as Sterling Surges Through $1.30

Yesterday's dramatic response to the political maelstrom in Washington is over. The appointment of a special counsel to head up the FBI's investigation into Russia's attempt to influence the US election appears to have acted a circuit breaker of sorts. It is not sufficient to boost confidence that the Trump Administrations economic program is back the front burners, but it is sufficient to stem the time for the moment.

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FX Daily, March 23: Some Thoughts about the Recent Price Action

The gains the US dollar scored last month have been largely unwound against the major currencies. The dollar's losses against the yen are a bit greater, and it returned to levels not seen late last November. The down draft in the dollar appears part of a larger development in the capital markets that has also seen the US 10-year yield slide 25 bp in less than two weeks. The two-year yield is off 17 bp.

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