Tag Archive: Switzerland

Rumors about tax on Swiss deposits for foreigners and further SNB measures: SNB begging for pips

2012-05-24

Exactly when the US had a relatively good Markit Flash PMI, rumors are sent out that deposits in CHF for foreigners should be taxed. To send out this rumor together with good US data seems to be intentional. According to Banque CIC the SNB has declined to comment. We remember the last SNB meeting when similar rumors circulated.

Read More »

Former SNB chief economist: Capital controls are just empty words

2012-05-20

by George Dorgan

2012-05-20

A former SNB chief economist says that capital controls are impossible, just empty words. In case of a Euro break-up the Swissie must rise together with USD, GBP and JPY An article, surprisingly from the usually left-wing Tagesanzeiger, more or less closely translated with some additional remarks.

Read More »

Italy: About the Hypocrisy of Politicians and the Blindness of the English-Speaking Financial Papers

2012-05-19

by George Dorgan

2012-05-19

Debt Servicing Costs Italy vs. GDP change

Just a little wrap-up of two tweets read in 5 minutes, to which I finally added a bit more out of my recent Tweets. One Tweet: The British finance minister Osborne has emphasized that the euro zone needs to protect its peripheral economies. “The whole of Europe needs to become more competitive and productive. That …

Read More »

EUR/CHF, A History, The Game Changes: April 2012

2012-04-30

by George Dorgan

2012-04-30

EUR/GBP: If You Want To Know Why Its Falling, Have A Look At The SNB Thanks Goose for the reminder that the SNB released figures on its FX reserves holdings and these showed a marked increase in GBP holdings. This has been a constant theme over the last few weeks/months, the SNB buys EUR/CHF in the marketplace … Continue reading »

Read More »

Why is the Swiss safe-haven so completely different from the Yen ?

2012-04-27

by George Dorgan

2012-04-27

4 future scenarios for the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen For many people it is astonishing that the Swiss franc continuously rises against the euro, especially when markets are up. Is the CHF no safe-haven any more ? This year the Japanese yen has strongly fallen against the major currencies. Together with the upturn …

Read More »

EUR/CHF, A History, Market Betting on Floor: March 2012

2012-03-31

by George Dorgan

2012-03-31

Nomura Touts EUR/CHF Longs Strategists there advise going long around the current levels, they say the floor will not break. They target 1.24. I have to agree. To me, it’s a question of buying low or buying a bit lower. By Adam Button || March 30, 2012 at 14:50 GMT EUR/CHF Touches One-Month Low Bounced off … Continue reading »

Read More »

SNB Statistical Publications

Why the Euro Crisis may last another 15 years

2012-03-25

by George Dorgan

2012-03-25

home prices ireland, spain, uk, france, usa, germany, switzerland 1990-2008

Abstract In the following article we will explain which types of crisis occur in the euro area and will argue that this crisis will last at least another fifteen years. (1) Competitiveness crisis: Before the euro introduction peripheral countries regularly saw their currency depreciate against the German Mark and helped them to increase their competitiveness. …

Read More »

SNB meeting on March 15th, 2012: Pure Speculation that SNB raises floor, How to Trade it ?

2012-03-14

by George Dorgan

2012-03-14

Between November 2011 and January 2012 mostly left-wing politicians and trade unions wanted the EUR/CHF floor to be risen to 1.30 or 1.40 and uttered their wishes regularly in the Swiss newspapers, triggering many FX traders to speculate on this hike. Recently these demands have become more silent even if some UBS analysts still see the floor to …

Read More »

Written in February 2012: Will the EUR/CHF never rise over 1.22 or 1.23 again?

Our analysis from February 2012 shows astonishing accurateness: It predicted that the euro would not rise against CHF and that the commodity currencies were overvalued and subject to correction. Basic foreign exchange theory, the SNB price stability mandate and strong fundamentals for Switzerland and bad ones for the peripheral countries of the euro zone speak for the thesis that the EUR/CHF exchange rate might never go over the level of around...

Read More »

EUR/CHF, A History, Market Betting on Floor Hike: January 2012

2012-01-31

by George Dorgan

2012-01-31

1.2034 The EUR/CHF Low As Risk-Off Resumes 1.2025 barrier supposedly in play while the 1.2000 peg below will act as a magnet if broken. There is something about the forex mindset that prompts markets to reach out and touch things that are not meant to be touched. EUR/US fell to 1.3063, triggering a few … Continue reading »

Read More »

The new European Save-Havens: Trade SEK/CHF and NOK/CHF

2012-01-10

by George Dorgan

2012-01-10

After the announcement of the floor in the EUR/CHF pair, many predicted the Swedish and the Norwegian Krone to take the place of the Swiss Franc as European save-haven against the Euro turmoil (http://on.ft.com/pKSJ1V). Both countries possess a low level of debt, positive trade balance and very competitive economies.

Read More »

EUR/CHF, Market betting on Floor Hike, December 2011

2011-12-31

by George Dorgan

2011-12-31

Four Trades For 2012: #2 Sell The Swiss Franc I bought EUR/CHF shortly after the 1.20 peg was introduced and have held it ever since. My only regret has not been trading the range more aggressively. At this point everyone has an opinion of the SNB so I won’t try to convince the bears. Personally, … Continue reading »

Read More »

SNB: Lift EUR/CHF floor or not ?

2011-12-14

by George Dorgan

2011-12-14

Many participants in the FX markets seem to be sure that the SNB will lift the EUR/CHF flow to 1.25 Here the pros and the cons:

Read More »

EUR/CHF Markets Betting on Floor Hike: October 2011

2011-10-31

by George Dorgan

2011-10-31

October 2011 Looks Like Market Exercising The Free EUR Put The SNB Bought For It EUR/CHF has been under pressure for the the last two weeks despite Herculean efforts by the EU/IMF to bailout the euro zone. It looks as if the market is taking up the SNB on its offer the buy unlimited … Continue reading »

Read More »

EUR/CHF: A History of Interventions: September 2011: The Floor Introduction

2011-09-30

by George Dorgan

2011-09-30

SNB Spotted In The Cross Today… Traders say the SNB was seen on the bid in lumpy size on the quick slide toward 1.2120 shortly after the open of US equity cash markets at 13:30. We’ve quickly bounced to 1.2170. By Jamie Coleman || September 30, 2011 at 14:20 GMT Category: All, Americas, Mkt Talk, Regions || Tags: EUR/CHF || 0 comments || Add …

Read More »

EUR/CHF: A History of Interventions: August 2011: the Top

2011-08-31

by George Dorgan

2011-08-31

EUR/CHF Kicked Lower Again Hitting a new low this week of 1.1545 and is down over 300 pips on the day. The moved largely initiated by a major swiss name earlier apparently in conjunction with a hedge fund. Comments from the Swiss Econ Min over the last hour hardly helping matters, after the govt aid package … Continue reading »

Read More »

EUR/CHF: One Year of Free Market (07/2010-07/2011): July 2011

2011-07-31

by George Dorgan

2011-07-31

ForexLive Asian Market Open EUR/USD is trading around 1.4390 and USD/JPY is at 77.20 as the market awaits the latest developments out of Washington. Risk pairs like EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF are likely to be whippy this morning as the headlines hit the newswires. Good luck out there. By Sean Lee || July 31, 2011 at 20:49 … Continue reading »

Read More »

Swiss Franc at record highs (May 2011)

2011-05-27

by George Dorgan

2011-05-27

swiss franc versus cross currencies 2010-2011 chfusd chfjpy chfeur

May. 27th 2011 Extracts from the history of the Swiss franc (May 2011) This month, the Swiss Franc touched a record high against not one, but two currencies: the US dollar and the Euro. Having risen by more than 30% against the former and 20% against the latter, the franc might just be the world’s … Continue reading »

Read More »

EUR/CHF: One Year of Free Market (07/2010-07/2011): March 2011

2011-03-31

by George Dorgan

2011-03-31

March 2011 Swiss KOF Leading Growth Indicator 2.24 In March Up from revised 2.19 in February (initial 2.18.) Stronger than median forecast of 2.15. Bit of a surprise. EUR/CHF lower, presently at 1.2978. By Gerry Davies || March 30, 2011 at 09:39 GMT EUR/USD: Look To The Crosses For Guidance EUR/JPY has made a significant move … Continue reading...

Read More »