Tag Archive: Swiss National Bank

The win of the pro-bailout parties in the Greek elections was no win for the SNB

2012-06-25

The win for the pro-bailout parties in the Greek elections was no win for the Swiss National Bank (SNB), even if the fear of an immediate bank-run and extreme money flows into Switzerland are avoided. Also the fact that QE3 is not coming in the next weeks did not help the SNB.

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Eurobonds, fiscal union or banking union are all pure utopia

Eurobonds are light years away.Germany wants the following order: 1) Euro Plus Pact 2) Fiscal Compact 3) ESM 4) Political union 5) Fiscal union 6) Eurobonds

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The other risk for the SNB: Will German Bund yields double ?

2012-06-20

by George Dorgan

2012-06-20

In the latest post we started discussing the implications of a German euro exit for the Swiss National Bank, this time we will look on another risk: The rising German Bund yields.

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Is the SNB prepared for the black swan ?

2012-06-14

by George Dorgan

2012-06-14

Will the SNB printing policy lead to inflation and a housing bust when Germany leaves the Euro ? Recently the voices for a German euro exit have become louder and louder. The most recent voice comes from Biderman , the FT says that the rise of German Bunds holds the secret how the eurozone crisis will … Continue reading...

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Feedbacks

Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist Saxo Bank is buying in our arguments

2012-06-12

by George Dorgan

2012-06-12

Steen Jakobsen sees 25% percent chance that the floor breaks and if it does it breaks to parity. Last week Thomas Jordan removed any hopes on a hike of the EUR/CHF and invited smart money and hedge funds to a no-risk, high return game on the Swiss franc, which these gratefully accepted. After Morgan Stanley …

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Other blogs & info on SNB & CHF

Another week, another 14 bln. francs printed

2012-06-11

by George Dorgan

2012-06-11

According to the newest monetary data, in the week ending June 8th, the unsterialized money supply (as measured in sight deposits of domestic and foreign banks and deposits by the Swiss confederation) increased by 14 billion Swiss francs.

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The Swiss National Bank and the EUR/CHF floor have become a political football

2012-06-10

by George Dorgan

2012-06-10

How the SNB Chairman Jordan has invited hedge funds and smart investors to a risk-free, high-return guaranteed investment in Swiss francs A wrap-up of Swiss newspapers for non-German literates In parallel to the start of the UEFA Euro 2012, the Swiss National Bank and its policy towards the EUR/CHF exchange rate has become a political …

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The “Sell in May, come back in October” effect and its equivalent for the SNB

2012-06-09

by George Dorgan

2012-06-09

The "Sell in May, come back in October" effect It is the same seasonal anomaly nearly every year: The statistically flawed (see here and here) Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report delivers some good winter readings with 200K new jobs, this time additionally fuelled by a weather effect; biased data that let hard-core Keynesian policy makers doubt Okun's law. Consequently the stock markets rally …

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DRAFT: Swiss Economic Data (outdated)

References & Ping Backs

A central bank running suicide ? SNB prints at pace never seen since EUR/CHF parity in August 2011

2012-06-04

by George Dorgan

2012-06-04

The most recent money supply data from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has shown increases of huge amounts. As compared with its loss of 19 bln. francs in 2010 (3% percent of the Swiss GDP), the central bank printed tremendous 17.3 bln. in the week ending in June 1st and 13 bln. in the one …

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The German supply-side reforms or will German companies take over the PIIGS ?

2012-06-02

by George Dorgan

2012-06-02

Words heart on German street in 2010 during the first Greek bailouts were that Germany should obtain the Greek islands as collateral if Greece is not able to pay back the debt to Germany. But even today German n-tv is reporting about many Greek real estate brokers that are currently delling islands. If it is not that type … Continue...

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The latest bubble: Real estate in Russia

2012-06-01

by George Dorgan

2012-06-01

Still a draft, From Barnaul, Siberia, Russia Inna, 28, is a high-school teacher, she has one child. Her monthly salary is 8’500 Russian Rubel, about 257 USD. Similarly as many state employees her salary is very low. Recently the state doubled the salary of policemen and soldiers from 20’000 RUB to 40’000 RUB. A main …

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EUR/CHF, A History of Interventions: May 2012

2012-05-31

by George Dorgan

2012-05-31

FT A Wee Bit Late To The Party… Notices Europeans have been buying Swiss francs and dollars. Who knew? By Jamie Coleman || May 30, 2012 at 19:43 GMT AUD/USD, NZD/USD Dragged Higher As EUR Recovers As Gerry mentioned earlier, the talk of a rescue fund for EZ banks seems to have set off some short covering … Continue reading »

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CNBC rumors: Different peg methods for the SNB

2012-05-30

by George Dorgan

2012-05-30

There are currently rumors going on on CNBC that the SNB is planning something this night. As we explained here, the SNB had to strongly restart the printing press and printed tremendous 13 bln francs in one week. Moreover, they probably sold some of their in Q4 2011 and Q1 2012 acquired GBP, JYP and …

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SNB switched from selling euros to buying euros, might sell GBP

2012-05-30

by George Dorgan

2012-05-30

As explained in our previous post, at least till May 4th the Swiss National Bank could have been a net buyer of GBP, USD and JPY selling Euros off their balance sheet. In the week of May 11, QE3 talk came up together with a bad Phily Fed reading. From then the SNB had to acquire … Continue reading »

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Huge rise in Currency Reserves: The SNB has restarted the printing press

2012-05-29

by George Dorgan

2012-05-29

The game for the Swiss National Bank seems to have changed completely. Again the central bank had increase money supply, as measured by deposits at the SNB by local banks and other sight deposits, this time even by 13219 mil. francs (source). This money printing implies that the SNB had to buy in Euros in …

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