Tag Archive: newsletter

Does the Free Market Corrupt People?

2020-06-22

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2020-06-22

The political theorist Michael J. Sandel is a popular teacher at Harvard, and his lectures circulate widely on YouTube and elsewhere. He attracted attention as a serious political theorist with his critical work on John Rawls, Liberalism and the Limits of Justice (1982). As most readers will know, I’m no fan of Rawls, and it’s easy to find poor arguments in his A Theory of Justice. But Sandel totally misunderstands him, and his attack on Rawls...

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Coronavirus: cheap drug substantially cuts severe case death risk, according to large UK trial

2020-06-21

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2020-06-21

A trial at Oxford University suggests an existing low cost drug can cut the risk of death from Covid-19 substantially. Tests involving 6,000 hospitalised Covid-19 patients suggest the drug can cut the risk of death for those on ventilators from 40% to 28%. For patients needing oxygen the risk of death could be cut from 25% to 20%.

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Our Wile E. Coyote Economy: Nothing But Financial Engineering

2020-06-21

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2020-06-21

Ours is a Wile E. Coyote economy, and now we're hanging in mid-air, realizing there is nothing solid beneath our feet. The story we're told about how our "capitalist" economy works is outdated. The story goes like this: companies produce goods and services for a competitive marketplace and earn a profit from this production. These profits are income streams for investors, who buy companies' stocks based on these profits. As profits rise, so do...

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The War On Cash – COVID Edition Part II

2020-06-21

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2020-06-21

The digital “toll” It doesn’t require too dark an imagination to realize the gravity of the concerns over the digital yuan. China is a true pioneer when it comes surveillance, censorship and political oppression and the digital age has given an incredibly efficient and effective arsenal to the state. Adding money to that toolkit was a move that was planned for many years and it is abundantly clear how useful a tool it can be for any totalitarian...

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Coronavirus: the rising number of mild cases with symptoms lasting months

2020-06-20

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2020-06-20

Those with mild Covid-19 symptoms are supposed to recover after two weeks. However, a rising number of relatively young people with mild cases report symptoms months later. Johns Hopkins Medicine says that those with mild cases of COVID-19 appear to recover within one to two weeks. For severe cases, recovery may take six weeks or more.

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The Smallness of the Most Gigantic

2020-06-20

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2020-06-20

US Retail Sales, Stagnation 1992-2020
These numbers do seem epic, don’t they? It’s hard to ignore when you have the greatest percentage increase in the history of a major economic account. Just writing that sentence it’s difficult to deny the power of those words. Which is precisely the point: we already know ahead of time how the biggest economic holes in history are going to produce the biggest positives coming out of them.

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Why the European Recovery Plan Will Likely Fail

2020-06-20

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2020-06-20

The €750 billion stimulus plan announced by the European Commission has been greeted by many macroeconomic analysts and investment banks with euphoria. However, we must be cautious. Why? Many would argue that a swift and decisive response to the crisis with an injection of liquidity that avoids a financial collapse and a strong fiscal impulse that cements the recovery are overwhelmingly positive measures.

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SNB Monetary Policy Assessment June 2020 and Videos

2020-06-19

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2020-06-19

SNB Switzerland Conditional Inflation Forecast, June 2020
The coronavirus pandemic and the measures implemented to contain it have led to a severe downturn in economic activity and a decline in inflation both in Switzerland and abroad. The SNB’s expansionary monetary policy remains necessary to ensure appropriate monetary conditions in Switzerland.

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Weekly View – Reality check

2020-06-19

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2020-06-19

The short-term pull-back in stock prices last week on the back of persistent virus concerns in the US and elsewhere shows the market remains jittery despite the massive run-up in prices since late March. May data from China showed a relatively fast rebound on the supply side of the economy, but a much slower take-off in consumption, suggesting a ‘reverse square root’ kind of recovery for economies rather than the ‘v’-shaped one markets have been...

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Coronavirus: national lockdown not part of Switzerland’s second wave response plan

2020-06-19

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2020-06-19

Switzerland’s federal government is against imposing nationwide restrictions to slow the spread of a second wave on infections, according to the NZZ am Sonntag newspaper. The federal government plan, which is under development, is more regional than the response to the first wave of infections and focuses decision making power at the cantonal level, reported the newspaper.

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Monthly Macro Monitor – June 2020

2020-06-19

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2020-06-19

TSA checkpoint travel numbers for 2020 and 2019
The stock market has recovered most of its losses from the March COVID-19 induced sell-off and the enthusiasm with which stocks are being bought – and sold but mostly bought – could lead one to believe that the crisis is over, that the economy has completely or nearly completely recovered. Unfortunately, other markets do not support that notion nor does the available economic data.

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The Fed’s Grand Bargain Has Finally Imploded

2020-06-19

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2020-06-19

The Fed has backed itself not into a corner but to the edge of a precipice. Though the Federal Reserve never stated its Grand Bargain explicitly, their actions have spoken louder than their predictably self-serving, obfuscatory public pronouncements. Here's the Grand Bargain they offered institutional investors and speculators alike.

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Why the New Economics Just Boils Down to Printing More Money

2020-06-19

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2020-06-19

The essential fallacy of John Maynard Keynes and his early disciples was to cultivate the monetary equivalent of alchemy. They believed that paper money was a suitable means to alleviate the fundamental economic problem of scarcity. The printing press was, at any rate, under certain plausible conditions of duress, a substitute for hard work, savings, and cutting prices (Hazlitt 1959, 1960).

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Swiss Trade Balance May 2020: signs of recovery in foreign trade

2020-06-18

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2020-06-18

Swiss exports and imports, seasonally adjusted (in bn CHF), May 2020
After its historic setback of the previous month, foreign trade recovered a few colors in May 2020. Imports posted a seasonally adjusted increase of 9.8% to 13.6 billion francs; however, they are still below their March 2020 level. Although exports fell again (-1.2%), they eased compared to April. The trade balance closed with a surplus of 2.8 billion francs.

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SNB Preview

2020-06-18

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2020-06-18

Swiss Foreign Reserves, 2010-2020
The Swiss National Bank meets Thursday. It is widely expected to maintain its current policy stances but is likely to push back against CHF strength. Here, we highlight here the potential choices that lie ahead for the SNB.

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Coronavirus: latest antibody study suggests 10.8 percent of Geneva infected in first wave

2020-06-18

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2020-06-18

A recently published update to the ongoing study in Geneva to assess the extent of SARS-CoV-2 infection suggests 10.8% of the population may have been infected in the first wave of infections. The study, which tests a sample of the population over time for IgG SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, started in early April 2020. The latest figures come from the fifth week of testing, which was concluded on 9 May 2020. 

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Dollar Suffers as Stimulus Efforts Boost Market Sentiment

2020-06-18

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2020-06-18

US HY and IG Bonds Returns, 2020
Market sentiment reverse sharply to the positive side due to several factors; as a result, the dollar has suffered. The Fed beefed up its support for the corporate bond market; all eyes are on Fed Chair Powell as he delivers his semi-annual report to the Senate today. The Trump administration is reportedly preparing a large infrastructure bill; May retail sales will be the data highlight.

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Fed Balance Sheet: Swap Me Update

2020-06-18

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2020-06-18

Fed Balance Sheet: Assets, 2019-2020
Just a quick update to add a little more data and color to my last Friday’s swap line criticism so hopefully you can better see how there is intentional activity behind them. Since a few people have asked, I’ll break them out with a little more detail. While the volume of swaps outstanding at the Fed has, in total, remained relatively constant (suspiciously, if you ask me), the underlying tenor of them has not.Meaning, there is purpose.

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Keynesians on the Cause of, and Cure for, Depressions

2020-06-18

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2020-06-18

[This article is part of the Understanding Money Mechanics series, by Robert P. Murphy. The series will be published as a book in late 2020.] In chapter 8 we presented Ludwig von Mises’s explanation of how bank credit expansion causes the boom-bust cycle, what is now known as Austrian business cycle theory. However, the reigning view today in both academia and the popular media is the Keynesian explanation, derived from John Maynard Keynes’s famous...

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FX Daily, June 17: Correction Phase does not Appear Over

2020-06-17

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2020-06-17

Overview:  Investors have not yet completely shaken off the angst that saw equities slide last week.  All equity markets in the Asia Pacific region, but Japan, edged higher today, including China, India, and South Korea, where political/military tensions are elevated.  Europe followed suit, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is firm near yesterday's highs. It has entered but not yet filled the gap created by the sharply lower opening on June 11.

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