Tag Archive: newsletter

Asia Lockdowns vs. Re-Openings

2020-05-30

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2020-05-30

We apply the five-factor model used to analyse lockdowns and openings in developed markets and in Latin America to Asian Markets. It evaluates the restrictions imposed by different countries in the region, how they compare in terms of severity of lockdown, and where they are heading in the spectrum of reopening. The scale we use measures grade restrictions from 1 (open) to 4 (closed) across the following five factors: (a) schools/universities, (b)...

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Is Your Pension ‘Good as Gold’?

2020-05-30

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2020-05-30

With the current level of uncertainty in world markets we have received numerous requests for information on how self directed pension schemes (pre and post retirement) can hold gold and silver.It is accepted that if gold bullion is held via a gold certificates ( Perth Mint Certificates with GoldCore) or in Secure Storage in a variety of local or international locations with GoldCore, then it is not considered a ‘pride in possession’ article or...

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FX Daily, May 29: Month-End Profit-Taking Weighs on Equities as the Euro Pops Above $1.11

2020-05-29

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2020-05-29

Overview:  The announcement that President Trump will hold a press conference on China later today rattled investors yesterday after they had earlier shrugged off the escalation of tension between the US and China to take the S&P 500 up to its highest level in nearly three months.  The S&P 500 reversed and settled on its lows, and this carried over into today's activity, which also may be reflecting month-end adjustments.

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2021 Geneva Motor Show ‘very uncertain’ as organisers reject loan

2020-05-29

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2020-05-29

The 2021 edition of the Geneva International Motor Show remains touch and go after the organisers rejected the terms surrounding a state rescue loan. This year’s car show was cancelled four days prior to its opening due to the coronavirus outbreak, costing an estimated loss of CHF11 million ($11.3 million) for the organisers of Switzerland’s largest public event.

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Swiss have mixed feelings about working from home, according to survey

2020-05-29

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2020-05-29

Working from home is a mixed bag of pros and cons for most Swiss who were surveyed by gfs.bern in March and April 2020. But it worked for most. In 2019, before the outbreak of the corona pandemic, around 1.1 million employees in Switzerland occasionally worked from home.

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Getting A Sense of the Economy’s Current Hole and How the Government’s Measures To Fill It (Don’t) Add Up

2020-05-29

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2020-05-29

GDP Pro Forma, 2010-2020
The numbers just don’t add up. Even if you treat this stuff on the most charitable of terms, dollar for dollar, way too much of the hole almost certainly remains unfilled. That’s the thing about “stimulus” talk; for one thing, people seem to be viewing it as some kind of addition without thinking it all the way through first.You have to begin by sizing up the gross economic deficit it is being haphazardly poured into – with an additional emphasis...

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Why Congressional “Oversight” of the Bureaucracy Is No Such Thing

2020-05-29

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2020-05-29

I have long been fascinated by both public policy and the interesting crooks, crannies, and oddities found in the English language. Recently, I came across one such tidbit which connected both of those interests. Hugh Rawson, in "Janus Words—Two-faced English" on the Cambridge Dictionary blog, was discussing a number of English words that are sometimes called Janus words, after the Roman god depicted with two faces pointing in opposite directions,...

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FX Daily, May 28: Escalating Tensions, Calm Markets

2020-05-28

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2020-05-28

Overview: The US Secretary of State's announcement that the autonomy of Hong Kong could no longer be affirmed did not derail the rally in US equities. However, the threat of an executive order against social media companies may be discouraging follow-through buying, leaving US equities little changed ahead of the open. In contrast, Asia Pacific and European equities are mostly higher.

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Weekly View – One country, two systems at risk

2020-05-28

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2020-05-28

Last week, German chancellor Merkel delivered a surprise about-face when she and French president Macron announced a proposal for a EUR 500bn recovery fund in the wake of the coronavirus crisis. The unprecedented plan involves the distribution of grants, rather than loans, to member states in economic need.

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Swiss industry endured horror April during pandemic peak

2020-05-28

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2020-05-28

Swiss watch exports slumped by over 80% last month, recording sales of just CHF329 million ($339 million) – compared with CHF1.76 billion in April 2019. Both exports and imports in all industries endured a predictably dire performance as Covid-19 resulted in national lockdowns.

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Coronavirus fuels Swiss bicycling surge

2020-05-28

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2020-05-28

While demand for public transport collapsed during Switzerland's partial lockdown, bicycle usage soared across the country. But greater acceptance of cycling nationwide will depend on further political decisions and transport planning.

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Hong Kong Turbulence Likely to Rise as US-China Relations Worsen

2020-05-28

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2020-05-28

Recent moves by China call into direct question the “one country, two systems” approach.  Hong Kong assets have held up surprisingly well but we see turbulence ahead as US-China relations are set to deteriorate further.

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An Economy That Cannot Allow Stocks to Decline Is Too Fragile To Survive

2020-05-28

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2020-05-28

Nasdaq 100 Index, 2020
The fragile ice shelf of speculative bets and debt clinging to the mountainside is making strange creaking sounds-- will you listen or will you ignore it because 'the Fed has our back'? Feast your eyes on the chart below of the Nasdaq 100 stock market Index, which is dominated by the six FAAMNG (rhymes with "famine") stocks: Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Netflix and Google which now account for over 20% of the entire U.S. stock market's...

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Restricted Market Trading Comments

2020-05-28

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2020-05-28

By Dara O’Sullivan, Derrick Leonard, and Ilan Solot, Covid-19 related measures for restricted markets remain largely unchanged this week. Philippines, Bangladesh and Kuwait have extended their lockdown periods, while Kenya and Nigeria continue to face limited liquidity.

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How We Might Respond to a Panedemic Were Society Not So Dominated by the State

2020-05-28

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2020-05-28

“There are no libertarians in an epidemic” crowed Atlantic reporter Peter Nicholas back on March 10, as he listed the numerous economic interventions the Trump administration was undertaking in the wake of the mounting COVID-19 crisis. This intervention, Nicholas declared, just goes to show you that whatever antigovernment talk one might talk, government intervention in the economy is “nothing new and, as may well prove the case this time around,...

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FX Daily, May 27: China and Hong Kong Pressures are Having Limited Knock-on Effects

2020-05-27

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2020-05-27

Overview: The S&P 500 gapped higher yesterday, above the recent ceiling and above the 200-day moving average for the first time since early March. The momentum faltered, and it finished below the opening level and near session lows. The spill-over into today's activity has been minor. The heightened tensions weighed on China and Hong Kong markets, but Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Indian equity markets rose.

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Re-Opening the Economy Won’t Fix What’s Broken

2020-05-27

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2020-05-27

Student Loans Owned and Securitized, 2008-2020
Re-opening a fragile, brittle, bankrupt, hopelessly perverse and corrupt "normal" won't fix what's broken. The stock market is in a frenzy of euphoria at the re-opening of the economy. Too bad the re-opening won't fix what's broken. As I've been noting recently, the real problem is the systemic fragility of the U.S. economy, which has lurched from one new extreme to the next to maintain a thin, brittle veneer of normalcy.

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Swisscom network experiencing problems

2020-05-27

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2020-05-27

Since 11:50 am on 26 May 2020, Swisscom’s mobile and landline networks have been experiencing problems. Landline and mobile network calls are currently impaired for business and private customers, according to Swisscom.

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Tourism industry told to adapt to new travel habits

2020-05-27

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2020-05-27

Going on holiday in one’s own country and in the countryside, in smaller groups and sometimes with restrictions – this is the new reality to which the tourism industry must adapt, according to a study by the University of St Gallen.

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So Much Dollar Bull

2020-05-27

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2020-05-27

TIC - US Banking Data, 2006-2020
According to the Federal Reserve’s calculations, the US dollar in Q1 pulled off its best quarter in more than twenty years – though it really didn’t need the full quarter to do it. The last time the Fed’s trade-weighed dollar index managed to appreciate farther than the 7.1% it had in the first three months of 2020, the year was 1997 during its final quarter when almost the whole of Asia was just about to get clobbered.In second place (now third)...

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