Tag Archive: newsletter

EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-09-09

by

2019-09-09

Despite some positive developments last week, we think the three key issues for risk assets have not been resolved yet.  Hong Kong protests continue, while reports suggest the US and China remain far apart.  Even Brexit has likely been given only a three month reprieve.  We remain negative on EM until these key issues have been ultimately resolved.

Read More »

SNB Jordan: Cannot say how long negative interest rates will last

2019-09-08

by

2019-09-08

SNBs Jordan on the wiresThe Swiss national banks Jordan is on the wires saying:He cannot say how long negative interest rates will lastNegative rates are necessary for nowInterest rate spreads like important role for exchange ratesThe USDCHF is trading higher today. It currently trades at 0.9861.

Read More »

These Are Not Signs of a Healthy Market

2019-09-08

by

2019-09-08

SPX Large Cap, April - August 2019
The implicit narrative of the latest rally in stocks is that this is just another normal rally in the ongoing 10-year long Bull market. Nice, but do these three charts look "normal" to you? Let's take a quick glance at a daily chart of the S&P 500 (SPX), a weekly chart of TLT, the exchange-traded fund of the US Treasury 20-year bond, and silver.

Read More »

New 100 Swiss Franc Note Coming Soon

2019-09-07

by

2019-09-07

The note’s design is inspired by Switzerland’s tradition of humanitarianism, represented on the note by water. The note remains blue but is much smaller than the existing one, making it easier to fit into wallets.

Read More »

Just Who Was The Intended Audience For The Rate Cut?

2019-09-07

by

2019-09-07

Federal Reserve Beige Book, December 2010 - September 2019
Federal Reserve policymakers appear to have grown more confident in their more optimistic assessment of the domestic situation. Since cutting the benchmark federal funds range by 25 bps on July 31, in speeches and in other ways Chairman Jay Powell and his group have taken on a more “hawkish” tilt. This isn’t all the way back to last year’s rate hikes, still a pronounced difference from a few months ago.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 06: Focus Shifts to North American Jobs Before Turning Back to Europe next Week

2019-09-06

by

2019-09-06

Investors hope that the world took a step away from the abyss in recent days. Developments in Hong Kong, US-China talking, a political and economic crisis in Italy appears to have been averted, and a risk of a no-deal Brexit has lessened. Asia Pacific equities closed the week on a firm note and extended the rally the third week.

Read More »

Nationalbank – SNB-Präsident Jordan: Libra könnte Geldpolitik gefährden

2019-09-06

by

2019-09-06

Die Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) misst Kryptowährungen wie Bitcoin wenig Potenzial zu. Die Chancen darauf, als Zahlungsmittel akzeptiert zu werden, sind aus Sicht der Zentralbank gering. Kryptowährungen hätten "eher den Charakter von spekulativen Anlageinstrumenten als von 'gutem' Geld", sagte der SNB-Präsident in einer Rede an der Universität Basel.

Read More »

USD/CHF bounces from trend-line support on trade news

2019-09-06

by

2019-09-06

USD/CHF levels
US/Sino trade teams will consult in mid-September with a view for a meeting in Washington in early October. USD/CHF is currently trading 0.26% higher and bouning of trend-line support.

Read More »

Will Everything Change in 2020-2025 or Will Nothing Change?

2019-09-06

by

2019-09-06

Rising Wedge Model of Breakdown
Any domino-like expanding crisis will unfold in a status quo lacking any coherent response. Longtime readers know I've often referenced The Fourth Turning, the book that makes the case for an 80-year cycle of existential crisis in U.S. history.

Read More »

Switzerland GDP Q2 2019: +0.3 percent QoQ, -0.2 percent YoY

2019-09-05

by

2019-09-05

Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ, Q2 2019
Switzerland’s GDP rose by 0.3% in the 2nd quarter of 2019, after increasing by 0.4% (revised) in the previous quarter.1 The development of domestic and foreign demand was weak, as in other European countries, which had a particularly negative impact on the service sectors.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 05: Brexit becomes a Dog’s Breakfast as Dollar’s Correction Continues

2019-09-05

by

2019-09-05

The Dollar Index fell the most in three months yesterday and is experiencing mild follow-through selling today. With hopes that Hong Kong has turned a corner, news that in-person US-China talks will resume next month, and a no-deal Brexit is well on the way to being averted, investor risk appetites are robust today.

Read More »

Gold To $3,000/oz By End Of 2020 As The Dollar Will Fall Sharply – Ron Paul

2019-09-05

by

2019-09-05

Silver Price, Three Days
Where Does Gold Go From Here? — Ron Paul’s “Cautious” Prediction. “Gold is an ‘insurance policy’ as the dollar will continue go down in value as it is printed” and it will end in a monetary “calamity”. “Gold is not money due to any man-made laws. Gold is money despite man-made laws, and is a product of the voluntary marketplace”.

Read More »

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: The ongoing corrective slide challenges 200-hour SMA support, around mid-0.9800s

2019-09-05

by

2019-09-05

USD/CHF 1-hourly chart
Extends overnight retracement slide from an ascending trend-channel resistance. A follow-through selling has the potential to drag the pair towards channel support. The USD/CHF pair remained under some selling pressure for the second consecutive session on Wednesday and retreated farther from over one-month tops set in the previous session.

Read More »

United States: The ISM Conundrum

2019-09-05

by

2019-09-05

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, Markit Manufacturing PMI and GDP, July 2012 - August 2019
Bond yields have tumbled this morning, bringing the 10-year US Treasury rate within sight of its record low level. The catalyst appears to have been the ISM’s Manufacturing PMI. Falling below 50, this widely followed economic indicator continues its rapid unwinding.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 04: HK Concession and Better EMU PMI Overshadows Self-Inflicted Trade and Brexit Woes

2019-09-04

by

2019-09-04

Risk appetites have been bolstered by three developments. The UK appears to have taken a tentative step away from leaving the EU without a deal. Hong Kong's Chief Executive Lam has agreed to formally withdraw the controversial extradition measure that had been suspended.

Read More »

Copper Confirmed

2019-09-04

by

2019-09-04

Copper NBS, August 2016 - 2019
Copper prices behave more deliberately than perhaps prices in other commodity markets. Like gold, it is still set by a mix of economic (meaning physical) and financial (meaning collateral and financing). Unlike gold, there doesn’t seem to be any rush to get to wherever the commodity market is going. Over the last several years, it has been more long periods of sideways.

Read More »

Latest Thoughts on the US Economic Outlook

2019-09-04

by

2019-09-04

US GDP, Q1 2012 - 2019
The US economy is starting to show cracks from the ongoing trade war. While we do not want to make too much from one data point, we acknowledge that headwinds are building whilst US recession risks are rising.

Read More »

Asset Inflation vs. Consumer Goods Inflation, Report 1 Sep

2019-09-03

by

2019-09-03

Gold and Silver Prices
A paradigm is a mental framework. It has a both a positive pressure and a negative filter. It structures one’s thoughts, orients them in a certain direction, and rules out certain ideas. Paradigms can be very useful, for example the scientific method directs one to begin with facts, explain them in a consistent way, and to ignore peyote dreams from the smoke lodge and claims of mental spoon-bending.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 03: Pound Punished in High Drama

2019-09-03

by

2019-09-03

A showdown between UK Prime Minister Johnson and Parliament over Brexit pushed sterling below $1.20. The euro is extended its losses after finishing last week below $1.10. Growth concerns are seeing equities retreat. Japanese and Chinese shares managed to eke out gains, but the Asia Pacific and European stocks have been sold.

Read More »

Swiss National Bank Presents New 100-Franc Note

2019-09-03

by

2019-09-03

100-Franc Note
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will begin releasing the new 100-franc note on 12 September 2019, bringing the issuance of the ninth banknote series to a close. The first denomination in the new series, the 50-franc note, entered circulation on 13 April 2016. This was followed by the 20, 10, 200 and 1000-franc notes, which were released at six or twelve-month intervals.

Read More »