Tag Archive: newsletter

The Bear Market Hook

2019-01-03

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2019-01-03

S&P 500 Large Cap Index
Has a Bear Market in Stocks Begun? The stock market correction into late December was of approximately the same size as the mid 2015/early 2016 twin downturns, so this is not an idle question. Moreover, many bears seem quite confident lately from an anecdotal perspective, which may invite a continuation of the recent upward correction.

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Change is in the Air – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

2019-01-02

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2019-01-02

Gold and Silver Price
Last week, the price of gold rose $25, and that of silver $0.60. Is it our turn? Is now when gold begins to go up? To outperform stocks? Something has changed in the supply and demand picture. Let’s look at that picture. But, first, here is the chart of the prices of gold and silver.

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European Perch Crowned Fish of the Year

2019-01-02

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2019-01-02

The European perch, or Perca fluviatilis, has been named the Fish of the Year for 2019. The Swiss Fishing Association said on Wednesday external linkthat it had chosen the perch to remind the public of its popularity, particularly as a culinary delicacy in Switzerland.

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A Word on Q3 COFER-It Might not be What You Think

2019-01-02

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2019-01-02

Foreign Exchange Reserves by Currency, Q1 2016 - Q3 2018
The IMF offers the most authoritative report on central bank reserves on a quarterly basis with a quarter lag.  The report, the Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), covering Q318 has been released.  It may be have been overlooked during the holidays, but if and when the pundits see it, the leading takeaway is that the dollar's share of global reserves fell below 62% for the first time five years.

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A Couple of Thoughts on 2019

2019-01-02

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2019-01-02

Americans paychecks are bigger than 40 Years ago, but their purchasing power has hardly budget 1964-2018
The story of the 21st century is debt is soaring while earned income is stagnating for the bottom 95%. Best wishes to all my readers and correspondents for a safe, healthy and productive 2019. Thank you, longstanding supporters, for renewing your financial support at the new year without any pathetic begging on my part. (The pathetic begging will commence shortly.)

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Nestlé beats Royal Dutch Shell to become top in Europe

2019-01-01

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2019-01-01

The Swiss-based food and drink multinational Nestlé is the most valuable European company, according to a new international survey. Nestlé edges out Royal Dutch Shell to move into 15th position worldwide – up three places with a stock market value of $252 billion (CHF250 billion), the annual report by the services company Ernst&Young found.

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Chart of the Week: The Dreaded Full Frown

2019-01-01

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2019-01-01

Eurodollar Futures Curve 2019-2024
I’m going to break my personal convention and use the bulk of the colors in the eurodollar futures spectrum, not just the single EDM’s (June) contained within each. The current front month is January 2019, and its quoted price as I write this is 97.2475. The EDH (March) 2019 contract trades at 97.29 currently and it will drop off the board on March 18.

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Police Warn of fake Swiss Franc Notes

2018-12-31

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2018-12-31

Swiss Francs
Since the beginning of December 2018 more and more counterfeit 100 Swiss franc notes have been appearing in the Swiss canton of Valais in and around Sion and Conthey. The fake notes, which the local Police say can be spotted if compared to real ones, have been making their way into circulation via shopping centres, kiosks and service stations in the Sion and Conthey region.

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Poll finds majority for greenhouse tax on plane tickets

2018-12-31

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2018-12-31

An overwhelming majority of people in Switzerland appear to be in favour of introducing a tax on plane tickets to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions. An online poll, published by the SonntagsZeitung newspaper, showed that 70% of respondents said they were prepared to pay between CHF12 to CHF50 ($12.2-$50.8) towards a CO2 tax depending on the duration of a flight.

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The Crisis of Capital

2018-12-31

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2018-12-31

US Average Hourly Wages, Seasonally Adjusted, 1964 - 2018
The undeniable reality of the 21st century economy is that capital has gained while labor has stagnated. While various critics quibbled about his methodology, Thomas Piketty's core finding--that capital expanded faster than GDP and wages/salaries (i.e. earned income from labor)--is visible in these charts.

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The Recline and Flail of Western Civilization and Other 2019 Predictions

2018-12-31

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2018-12-31

The Recline and Flail of Western Civilization and Other 2019 Predictions. “I think it’s a tremendous opportunity to buy.  Really a great opportunity to buy.” – President Donald Trump, Christmas Day 2018. Darts in a Blizzard. Today, as we prepare to close out the old, we offer a vast array of tidings.

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Swiss Lead Ranking of Globalised Countries

2018-12-30

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2018-12-30

Switzerland was the most globalised country in the world, according to a 2016 survey by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute. It moved up one place to the top compared with the previous year. The Netherlands, Belgium. Sweden and Britain followed in the next places. The United States are in 23rd place and the Comoros, Afghanistan and Guinea-Bissau are bottom of the 195-country rankingexternal link, which was published on Thursday.

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Agism most frequent form of discrimination in Switzerland, according to survey

2018-12-30

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2018-12-30

Elderly-man
Growing old is something that happens to nearly all of us. However, according to a recent study close to one in three people (28%) reported age-related discrimination in Switzerland in 2017. The rate of age discrimination (28%) is higher than sexism (22%) and racism (12%), according to Christian Maggiori, a professor focused on social work interviewed by the newspaper La Liberté.

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Technical Musings about the Euro and Dollar Anchored by Macro

2018-12-30

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2018-12-30

Tunafish
The $1.1475-$1.1550 is an important area for the euro.  Many bulls see a rounded bottom being carved and a break above it would be embraced as a confirmation. The lower-end corresponds to the 100-day moving average. Such a bottom pattern, if confirmed, would project toward $1.1800 the high in H2 18. On the downside, the low from H2 18 was near $1.1200.  This is just above a key (61.8%) retracement of the January 2017-February 2018 rally. 

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Swiss Export Industry backs EU Framework Deal

2018-12-29

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2018-12-29

Hans Hess
Switzerland’s largest industrial employer, the Association of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering Industries, has come out in favour of a controversial accord, covering relations with the European Union. Hans Hess, president of Swissmem, said the draft agreement was tailor-made for Switzerland.

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Week Winding Down on Firm Note, but Wild Ride may Not Be Over

2018-12-29

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2018-12-29

The biggest reversal in the S&P 500 since 2010, allowing it to string the biggest two-day rally in three years helped lift Asian and European shares today. All the Asia-Pacific equity markets advanced today but Japan, where the strength of the yen saw the Nikkei and Topix buck the move. European equities.

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Mixed Outlook for Swiss watchmakers

2018-12-28

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2018-12-28

Swiss Watch Industry
The Swiss watchmaking industry expects a continuing rise in exports next year but is concerned that the United States’ protectionist trade policy could have a negative impact on the sector. Jean-Daniel Pasche, president of the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, said the sector would record in 2018 the third consecutive year with growth, and the value of exports could exceed CHF21 billion ($21.2 billion).

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Some Thoughts on What is Happening

2018-12-28

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2018-12-28

Elephant
People do not just disagree on what should and will happen, but they disagree on what has happened. As William Faulkner instructed: "The past is not dead. Actually, it's not even past. This is clear in the narratives about the sharp drop in equity markets.

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Wasting the Middle: Obsessing Over Exits

2018-12-28

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2018-12-28

NYMEX WTI Futures 2016-2018
What was the difference between Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers? Well, for one thing Lehman’s failure wasn’t a singular event. In the heady days of September 2008, authorities working for any number of initialism agencies were busy trying to put out fires seemingly everywhere. Lehman had to compete with an AIG as well as a Wachovia, already preceded by a Fannie and a Freddie.

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Swiss Post handles record volume of Christmas parcels

2018-12-27

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2018-12-27

Swiss Post sorted and delivered a record 1.4 million parcels a day in the week before Christmas, which can be attributed to the continued growth of online shopping. This compares with last year’s record of 1.3 million set on December 19, Swiss Post said on Boxing Day.

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