Tag Archive: newsletter

The Doomsday Scenario for the Stock and Housing Bubbles

2019-03-01

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2019-03-01

SPX, weekly 1994 - 2019
It was always folly to believe that inflating asset bubbles could solve the structural problems of a post-industrial economy. The Doomsday Scenario for the stock and housing bubbles is simple: the Fed's magic fails. When dropping interest rates to zero and flooding the financial sector with loose money fail to ignite the economy and reflate the deflating bubbles, punters will realize the Fed's magic only worked the first three times: three bubbles...

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The Gold Debate – Where Do Things Stand in the Gold Market?

2019-03-01

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2019-03-01

A Recurring Pattern. When the gold price recently spiked up to approach the resistance area even Aunt Hilda, Freddy the town drunk, and his blind dog know about by now, a recurring pattern played out. The move toward resistance fanned excitement among gold bugs (which was conspicuously lacking previously).

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FX Daily, February 28: Trump Walks Away from North Korea. Should Beijing Worry?

2019-02-28

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2019-02-28

Overview:  News that the US-North Korean summit ended abruptly without an agreement spurred losses in equities and gains in the Swiss franc and Japanese yen. US President Trump willingness to walk away from the talks is important in and of itself, but it also sends a warning not to go all in on a US-China trade agreement that could also sour at the last minute.

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Good Year for Swiss Economy in 2018

2019-02-28

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2019-02-28

After some years of steady but low growth, the Swiss economy expanded by 2.5% in 2018 on the back of a positive global situation. The figures, released on Thursday by the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), showed growth last year that was a hair below expected (+2.6%) but which still marked a jump from 2017 figures (+1.6%).

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The Swiss hotel sector saw a new record number of overnight stays in 2018

2019-02-28

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2019-02-28

Overnight stays 2018
The hotel sector in Switzerland registered 38.8 million overnight stays in 2018, i.e. the best result to date. This represented a growth of 3.8% (+1.4 million) compared with 2017. Foreign demand totalled 21.4 million units, an increase of 4.5% (+921 000) and its best performance in 10 years. Swiss overnight stays increased by 2.9% (+493 000), thus reaching the record value of 17.4 million overnight stays.

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No Surprise, Hysteria Wasn’t a Sound Basis For Interpretation

2019-02-28

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2019-02-28

Labor Utilization Total Hours Worked 2008-2018
What gets them into trouble is how they just can’t help themselves. Go back one year, to early 2018. Last February it was all-but-assured (in mainstream coverage) that the US economy was going to take off. The bond market, meaning UST’s, was about to be massacred because the overheating boom would force a double shot down its throat.

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U.S. Mint Suspends Silver Bullion Coin Sales After Sales Double In February

2019-02-28

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2019-02-28

US Mint Silver Eagle Sales, Feb 2018 - Feb 2019
U.S. Mint suspends silver bullion coin sales after sales double in February. Silver investment demand for American Eagles (one ounce) silver bullion coins depletes West Point Mint inventories. U.S. Mint suspended sales of American Eagle (1 oz) coins on Feb. 21 because it had no coins left to sell.

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CNBC Clip: February 24 Brexit

2019-02-27

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2019-02-27

We tried a CNBC hook-up in Asia via Skype on February 25.  I did not think there would be a clip, but I stumbled on it looking for something else.  Click here for the roughly 2.5-minute interview done from my apartment in NYC.  The discussion is on Brexit and sterling. 

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FX Daily, February 27: Dollar Trades Heavily, While Prospects of a Softer and Later Brexit Send Sterling Higher

2019-02-27

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2019-02-27

Overview: As the North American session is about to begin, the markets await developments in the UK House of Commons where a vote is expected today on Prime Minister May's proposal to hold votes on around March 12 on the Withdrawal Bill and no deal. However, perceptions of a reduced likelihood of a no-deal exit continued to fuel sterling gains.

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Swiss weapons exports increase 14 percent

2019-02-27

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2019-02-27

Swiss companies last year exported government-approved war materiel to 64 countries with a total value of CHF510 million ($510 million), 14% more than the previous year. Germany was the largest customer, taking deliveries worth CHF118 million, followed by Denmark, the US, Romania and Italy, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) said on Tuesday.

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The Fate of Real Estate

2019-02-27

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2019-02-27

NAR Inventory of Homes For Sale, NSA 2014-2019
For years, realtors have been waiting for more housing inventory. It had become an article of faith, what was restraining a full-blown recovery was the lack of units available. The level of resales like construction was up, but still way, way less than it was now fourteen years past the prior peak despite sufficient population growth to have absorbed the previous bubble’s overbuilding.

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Swiss private banking giant dips toes into crypto scene

2019-02-26

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2019-02-26

One of Switzerland’s largest banks, Julius Baer, has entered the cryptoassets world by announcing a partnership with budding crypto bank start-up SEBA. While other Swiss banks, such as Vontobel, Falcon and Swissquote, are already active in the space, Julius Baer’s entrance has attracted particular attention.

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FX Daily, February 26: Brexit Dilution Lifts Sterling, while Yesterday’s Equity Rally Fades, Powell Awaited

2019-02-26

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2019-02-26

Overview:  The increased likelihood that Brexit is delayed and the possibility of a second referendum is helping lift sterling.  As has been the case for most of the time since the June 2016 referendum, the prospects of a softer and/or later Brexit is understood as sterling positive.  The other key focus is US-Chinese trade. 

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Tourists continue to flock to Switzerland

2019-02-26

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2019-02-26

The number of overnight stays in Swiss hotels increased by 3.8% last year to 38.8 million. Domestic tourism also registered a rise with 17.7 million stays by Swiss guests – up 2.7% on the previous year – Switzerland Tourism said at its annual press conference on Tuesday. It also welcomed the 3.7% increase in European guests but added that in mountain regions this figure was still down 43% on 2008.

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GERMANY: ECONOMY & SOVEREIGN BOND

2019-02-26

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2019-02-26

German Bund, 2016 - 2019
A host of factors weighed on German growth in H2 2018: a sharp slowdown in global demand on the external side and several transitory factors on the domestic side impacted industrial activity. At the same time, the 10-year German Bund yield has been trending downward. The steep fall in the oil price in late 2018, the economic slowdown and the Bund’s safe haven status are all factors behind the German bund’s yield fall.

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Now that Housing Bubble #2 Is Bursting…How Low Will It Go?

2019-02-26

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2019-02-26

Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index, 1990 - 2019
There are two generalities that can be applied to all asset bubbles: 1. Bubbles inflate for longer and reach higher levels than most pre-bubble analysts expected. 2. All bubbles burst, despite mantra-like claims that "this time it's different".

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Is Lending the Root of All Evil? Report 24 Feb

2019-02-25

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2019-02-25

Gold and Silver Price
Ayn Rand famously defended money. In Atlas Shrugged, Francisco D’Anconia says: “So you think that money is the root of all evil? . . . Have you ever asked what is the root of money? Money is a tool of exchange, which can’t exist unless there are goods produced and men able to produce them.

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FX Daily, February 25: Dollar Thumped on Confirmation of Tariff Delay while Stocks Advance

2019-02-25

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2019-02-25

Overview: The extension of the US-China tariff freeze had been telegraphed, but the confirmation is the single biggest driver of the day. Equities, led by a 5%+ advance in China, have rallied in Asia and Europe. Benchmark 10-year bond yields are mostly 1-2 basis points higher.  Peripheral yields are lower.

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Switzerland Employment Barometer in the Q4 2018: Situation Sustained

2019-02-25

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2019-02-25

Switzerland Employment Level, Q4 2018
In the 4th quarter 2018, total employment (number of jobs) rose by 1.3% in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier (+0.2% with previous quarter; seasonally adjusted figures). In full-time equivalents, employment in the same period rose by 1.6%.

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More Job seekers abroad drain Swiss Unemployment Benefits

2019-02-25

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2019-02-25

The number of people drawing on Swiss unemployment benefits while searching for a job in the European Union has risen sharply in the last five years. Foreigners returning home make up the largest share, according to government data analysed by SonntagsBlick.

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