Tag Archive: newsletter

What Caused the Recession of 2019-2021?

2019-02-15

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2019-02-15

Federal Debt Total Public Debt, 1970 - 2018
As I discussed in We're Overdue for a Sell-Everything/No-Fed-Rescue Recession, recessions have a proximate cause and a structural cause. The proximate cause is often a spike in energy costs (1973, 1990) or a financial crisis triggered by excesses of speculation and debt (2000 and 2008) or inflation (1980).

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Gold Prices In Pounds and Euros Gain More as Economic Growth Falters in the UK and EU

2019-02-15

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2019-02-15

Gold in GBP, May 2010 - Feb 2019
Gold prices in pounds and euros as economic growth falters in UK and EU. Euro & pound gold tests multi year resistance; likely to surpass due to strong demand. Improved risk appetite sees stocks rise which may be hampering stronger gains for gold.

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Socialism, Keynesianism, and Fascism

2019-02-14

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2019-02-14

The American political discourse has changed since the 2018 midterm election. Enthusiasm and passion were to be found on the left-wing of the Democratic Party. A new sense of hope and mission replaced the defeatism and cynicism seen in 2016. Some identified with democratic socialism, but in the political rhetoric the broad brush of “socialism” has been used to paint the entire party

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Dr. Dr. Rainer Zitelmann im Interview zum Thema “Vorurteile über Reiche” auf Bayern 2, 13.2.2019

2019-02-14

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in January 2019: -0.5 percent YoY, -0.7 percent MoM

2019-02-14

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2019-02-14

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, January 2019
14.02.2019 - The Producer and Import Price Index fell in January 2019 by 0.7% compared with the previous month, reaching 101.7 points (December 2015 = 100). This decline is due in particular to lower prices for petroleum products. Compared with January 2018, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 0.5%.

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Switzerland’s federal surplus even larger than expected

2019-02-14

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2019-02-14

In October 2018, government number crunchers revised Switzerland’s federal forecast budget surplus up from CHF 0.3 billion to CHF 2.5 billion. Today, Bern announced that provisional calculations for 2018 now show a surplus of CHF 2.9 billion, CHF 0.4 billion more than last year’s revised figure. The increase was driven by strict spending discipline and higher than expected receipts, according to the press release.

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The Corporate Lemmings Who Rushed into Mobile/Social Media Ads Are Running off the Cliff

2019-02-14

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2019-02-14

Smartphone Addiction
Given that corporations are run by people, and people are social animals that run in herds, it shouldn't surprise us that corporations follow the herd, too. Take the herd move to forming conglomerates in the go-go late 1960s: corporations suddenly started buying companies in completely different sectors in businesses they knew nothing about, because the herd was forming conglomerates--not because it made any business sense but because it was the...

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U.S. Congressman Introduces Bill to Remove Income Taxation from Gold and Silver

2019-02-14

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2019-02-14

The battle to end taxation of constitutional money has reached the federal level as U.S. Representative Alex Mooney (R-WV) today re-introduced sound money legislation to remove all federal income taxation from gold and silver coins and bullion. The Monetary Metals Tax Neutrality Act (H.R. 1089) backed by the Sound Money Defense League and free-market activists – would clarify that the sale or exchange of precious metals bullion and coins are not to...

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FX Daily, February 13: QT is not the Opposite of QE

2019-02-13

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2019-02-13

silence
The Federal Reserve has long been clear on the sequence of events as it innovated the playbook during the Great Financial Crisis. There would be a considerable period between when the Fed would finish its credit easing operations that involved purchasing Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and its first-rate hike.

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Mark Carney Steadies GBP/CHF Rates on Global Viewpoint

2019-02-13

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2019-02-13

Swiss Franc Rates Coin Note
The pound to Swiss franc exchange rate has been steadied following comments from Mark Carney during a briefing on the global economy at the Barbican centre in London yesterday. I was fortunate to be in attendance and was struck by Carney’s confident manner, although he highlighted some major risks ahead which would be key for GBP/CHF rates.

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Scandals hurt Swiss Business Reputation in 2018

2019-02-13

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2019-02-13

Switzerland’s reputation as a place to do business took a serious hit last year following various scandals, from corporate bank fraud to illegal subsidies. The Swiss Economy Reputation Index 2018external link, published on Tuesday by Basel-based consultancy Commslab and the fög research institute at the University of Zurich, dropped for the fifth consecutive quarter, reaching its lowest level since July 2014.

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Quantum Metal Lease #1 (gold)

2019-02-13

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2019-02-13

Offers for Quantum Metal
Monetary Metals leased gold to Quantum Metal, to support the growth of its gold distribution business through retail bank branches. The metal is held in the form of retail Perth Mint bars.

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FX Daily, February 12: Dollar Buying Pressure Subsides

2019-02-12

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2019-02-12

The Dollar Index's eight-day advance is in jeopardy. Although the greenback recorded new highs against some major currencies, the momentum appears to be stalling. The news stream is constructive as a compromise seems to have been reached to avoid another US government shutdown, and there is some optimism that the US and China will strike a deal even if not by March 1.

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Switzerland investigating Venezuela-linked corruption

2019-02-12

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2019-02-12

Switzerland’s attorney general has opened an investigation into a corruption case involving Venezuela, according to a weekend report published by Schweiz am Wochenende. The Latin American nation is in the grips of a major political, economic and social crisis. According to the prosecutor's statement to the weekly, proceedings were initiated at the end of 2017 against unknown persons “in the context of the events in Venezuela”.

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We’re Overdue for a Sell-Everything/No-Fed-Rescue Recession

2019-02-12

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2019-02-12

Federal government 2005-2015
We're way overdue for a sell-everything recession, one that the Fed will only make worse by pursuing its usual policies of lowering interest rates and goosing easy money. As I noted last week, central banks, like generals, always fight the last war--until the war is lost. 

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Large Gold Bullion Shipment Moves From London to Dublin Gold Vaults As Brexit Concerns Deepen

2019-02-12

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2019-02-12

-Large Gold Bullion Shipment Moves From London to Dublin Gold Vaults As Brexit Concerns Deepen. – Growing demand from investors to relocate tangible assets out of the UK. – “Zurich continues to be the most sought-after location for storage, but Dublin has already surpassed Hong Kong and will likely usurp the second spot from London”.

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What They Don’t Want You to Know about Prices, Report 10 Feb

2019-02-11

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2019-02-11

Gold and Silver Price
Last week, in part I of this essay, we discussed why a central planner cannot know the right interest rate. Central planner’s macroeconomic aggregate measures like GDP are blind to the problem of capital consumption, including especially capital consumption caused by the central plan itself.

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FX Daily, February 11: Dollar Starts New Week on Firm Note

2019-02-11

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2019-02-11

Lifted by the re-opening of Chinese markets after the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, global equities are trading firmer. Outside of Japanese markets that were closed, the large markets in Asia--China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Hong Kong advanced.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in January 2019: +0.6 percent YoY, -0.3 percent MoM

2019-02-11

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2019-02-11

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, January 2018
The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.3% in January 2019 compared with the previous month, reach-ing 101.3 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was 0.6% compared with the same month of the pre-vious year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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FX Weekly Preview: Little Resolution in the Week Ahead

2019-02-11

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2019-02-11

According to legend, the person who unraveled the Gordian Knot would rule the world. No one succeeded until Alexandar the Great took his mighty sword and sliced the knot in half. A young boy saw him afterward, crying on the steps of the Temple of Apollo. "Why are you crying?" the boy asked, "you just conquered the world. "Yes'" Alexander wept, " now there is nothing else for me to do."

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