Tag Archive: newsletter

Money Supply Growth Climbs to 37-Month High

2020-03-18

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2020-03-18

M2 and TMS/Rothbard-solerno Measure, 1998-2019
The money supply growth rate rose again in February, climbing to a 37-month high. The last time the growth rate was higher was during February of 2017, when the growth rate was 7.9 percent. During February 2020, year-over-year (YOY) growth in the money supply was at 7.49 percent. That's up from January's rate of 6.32 percent, and up from February 2019's rate of 3.20 percent.

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Don’t Panic – Prepare

2020-03-18

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2020-03-18

◆ Markets have collapsed around the world as we predicted as the ‘Giant Ponzi Everything Bubble’ meets the massive pin that is the coronavirus’ impact on already vulnerable indebted economies. ◆ Stocks have crashed and bond markets and banks may be next … “bank holidays”, bail-ins and currency resets are likely

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FX Daily, March 17: Even Turn Around Tuesday is Flat

2020-03-17

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2020-03-17

Overview:  While the markets are not as disorderly as they have been, the tone is fragile, and the animal spirits have been crushed.  Australian stocks fell more than 10% last week and dropped another 9.7% yesterday before rebounding by almost 6% today to be one of the few Asia Pacific equity markets to rise.  The Nikkei eked out a small gain, but the broader Topix rose 2.6%.

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USD/CHF recovers but finds resistance at 0.9500

2020-03-17

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2020-03-17

USD/CHF technical outlook
Swiss franc losses strength versus USD, EUR despite risk aversion. USD/CHF modestly lower for the day after finding resistance at 0.9500. The USD/CHF was trading around 0.9470, modestly lower from the level it closed on Friday. The pair bottomed during the European session at 0.9390, following rate cuts from many central banks. It then rebounded as the DXY turned positive, trimming losses. 

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Coronavirus: Federal Council declares ‘extraordinary situation’ and introduces more stringent measures

2020-03-17

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2020-03-17

At an extraordinary meeting today, 16 March 2020, the Federal Council took the decision to introduce more stringent measures to protect the public. It has declared that an ‘extraordinary situation’ now exists in Switzerland in terms of the Epidemics Act. All shops, restaurants, bars and entertainment and leisure facilities will remain closed until 19 April.

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Swiss government announces further restrictions to slow spread of virus

2020-03-17

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2020-03-17

At a press conference at 5pm on 16 March 2020, members of the Federal Council presented a list of further restrictions designed to slow the spread of the Covid-19 virus, that will become active from midnight tonight. A video of the conference can be viewed below.

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Helikoptergeld – nutzlos gegen die Krise

2020-03-17

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2020-03-17

Vor 11 Jahren befand sich die Welt, nach dem Platzen der Immobilienblase und der Peilte zahlreicher Banken, in einer drastischen Wirtschaftskrise. Diese entstand aufgrund zu niedriger Zinsen und zu viel billigem Geld. Gelernt haben die Notenbanker aus dieser Krise offensichtlich äußerst wenig. Trotz einer zehnjährigen Boomphase, insbesondere in Deutschland, sind die Zinsen historisch niedrig und werden weiter gesenkt.

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Is Ibuprofen dangerous for those infected with the coronavirus?

2020-03-17

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2020-03-17

Ibuprofen belongs to a family of drugs known as non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. On 14 March 2020, Olivier Véran, France’s health minister Tweeted that taking anti-inflammatory medicine “could be an aggravating factor” for those infected with Covid-19, and recommended paracetamol for those with a fever.

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Covid-19 Helicopter Money: Go Big Now or Go Home

2020-03-17

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2020-03-17

This is why it's imperative to go big now, and make plans to sustain the most vulnerable households and small employers not for two weeks but for six months--or however long proves necessary. That governments around the world will be forced to distribute "helicopter money" to keep their people fed and housed and their economies from imploding is already a given. 

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The Fed’s Massive Injection of “Liquidity” Also Benefits Uncle Sam

2020-03-17

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2020-03-17

There’s a lot to be said regarding the Fed’s surprise announcements—including its Sunday surprise of $700 billion in renewed QE and the complete elimination of all reserve requirements for banks—but here let me just focus on one element: the tendency for Fed officials and all the pundits to treat injections of “liquidity” as if they don’t count as much when distorting the economy.

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Is Now a Good Time to Buy Gold? Market Report 16 March

2020-03-16

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2020-03-16

We got hate mail after publishing Silver Backwardation Returns. It seems that someone thought backwardation means silver is a backward idea, or a bad bet. “You are a *&%#! idiot,” cursed he. “Silver is the most underpriced asset on the planet,” he offered as his sole supporting evidence. He doesn’t know that backwardation means scarcity, not that a commodity’s price is too high.

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FX Daily, March 16: Monday Blues: Fed Moves Bigly and Stocks Slump

2020-03-16

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2020-03-16

Overview: The Federal Reserve and central banks in the Asia Pacific region acted forcefully, but were unable to ease the consternation of investors. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut key rates by 75 bp. The Bank of Japan appears to have doubled its ETF purchase target to JPY12 trillion, and the Reserve Bank of Australia is preparing for new measures that will be announced Thursday.

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Geldpolitik – Coronavirus-Krise: Zentralbanken starten Notaktion gegen Liquiditätsengpass

2020-03-16

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2020-03-16

Die EZB, die US-Notenbank, die kanadische Notenbank, die Bank von England, Japans Notenbank und die Schweizerische Nationalbank wollen dazu bestehende US-Dollar-Devisentauschabkommen nutzen, wie auch die SNB am späten Sonntagabend ankündigte.

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The Covid-19 Dominoes Fall: The World Is Insolvent

2020-03-16

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2020-03-16

All Sectors, Debt Securities and Loans, 1960-2020
Subtract their immense debts and they have negative net worth, and therefore the market value of their stock is zero. To understand why the financial dominoes toppled by the Covid-19 pandemic lead to global insolvency, let's start with a household example. The point of this exercise is to distinguish between the market value of assets and net worth, which is what's left after debts are subtracted from the market value of assets.

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Swiss industry fears consequences of US travel ban

2020-03-16

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2020-03-16

A United States ban on travellers from Europe has been condemned as “incomprehensible” by leading Swiss manufacturing association, Swissmem. The Swiss-American Chamber of Commerce has also weighed in, saying firms would seriously suffer if borders remain closed for longer than a month.

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Coronavirus: Swiss hospitals have around 750 breathing ventilators

2020-03-16

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2020-03-16

One of the biggest challenges during the coronavirus outbreak will be ensuring there are enough qualified staff and equipment to keep the worst affected patients alive. Thierry Fumeaux, head of the Swiss Society of Intensive Medicine, told RTS there are 82 intensive care units (ICU) across Switzerland. These have a combined 850 places, of which 750 are equipped with breathing equipment. It is not clear how many of these places are currently available.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2020-03-16

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2020-03-16

Market sentiment is likely to open this week on an upswing after the Fed’s emergency rate cut and expanded QE were announced Sunday afternoon local time.  Yet as we have seen time and again this past couple of weeks, added stimulus has had little lasting impact on markets as the virus numbers continue to worsen.  Europe is now reporting more daily cases than China did at its peak.  We remain negative on EM until the global growth outlook becomes...

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Coronavirus: an estimate of the real number of infections in Switzerland

2020-03-15

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2020-03-15

Today, according to the Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH), there were 815 confirmed cases in Switzerland. There are obvious challenges to this figure. Possibly the most important is the time lag between infection and a confirmed case.

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Swiss lawyers seek to keep special ‘advisor’ status in the shadow economy

2020-03-15

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2020-03-15

The Swiss government faces resistance to efforts to tighten anti-money laundering rules that close loopholes for lawyers who act as “advisors” in setting up offshore financial structures. Anti-corruption expert Mark Pieth writes how the lawyer lobby in Switzerland is trying to maintain their special status at the expense of Switzerland’s attempts to improve its reputation as a laundering haven.

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Goodbye to All That: The Demise of Globalization and Imperial Pretensions

2020-03-15

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2020-03-15

The decline phase of the S-Curve is just beginning. Globalization and Imperial Pretensions have been decaying for years; now the tide has turned definitively against them. The Covid-19 pandemic didn't cause the demise of globalization and Imperial Pretensions; it merely pushed the rickety structures over the edge.

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