Tag Archive: newsletter

The Fate of Real Estate

2019-02-27

by

2019-02-27

NAR Inventory of Homes For Sale, NSA 2014-2019
For years, realtors have been waiting for more housing inventory. It had become an article of faith, what was restraining a full-blown recovery was the lack of units available. The level of resales like construction was up, but still way, way less than it was now fourteen years past the prior peak despite sufficient population growth to have absorbed the previous bubble’s overbuilding.

Read More »

Swiss private banking giant dips toes into crypto scene

2019-02-26

by

2019-02-26

One of Switzerland’s largest banks, Julius Baer, has entered the cryptoassets world by announcing a partnership with budding crypto bank start-up SEBA. While other Swiss banks, such as Vontobel, Falcon and Swissquote, are already active in the space, Julius Baer’s entrance has attracted particular attention.

Read More »

FX Daily, February 26: Brexit Dilution Lifts Sterling, while Yesterday’s Equity Rally Fades, Powell Awaited

2019-02-26

by

2019-02-26

Overview:  The increased likelihood that Brexit is delayed and the possibility of a second referendum is helping lift sterling.  As has been the case for most of the time since the June 2016 referendum, the prospects of a softer and/or later Brexit is understood as sterling positive.  The other key focus is US-Chinese trade. 

Read More »

Tourists continue to flock to Switzerland

2019-02-26

by

2019-02-26

The number of overnight stays in Swiss hotels increased by 3.8% last year to 38.8 million. Domestic tourism also registered a rise with 17.7 million stays by Swiss guests – up 2.7% on the previous year – Switzerland Tourism said at its annual press conference on Tuesday. It also welcomed the 3.7% increase in European guests but added that in mountain regions this figure was still down 43% on 2008.

Read More »

GERMANY: ECONOMY & SOVEREIGN BOND

2019-02-26

by

2019-02-26

German Bund, 2016 - 2019
A host of factors weighed on German growth in H2 2018: a sharp slowdown in global demand on the external side and several transitory factors on the domestic side impacted industrial activity. At the same time, the 10-year German Bund yield has been trending downward. The steep fall in the oil price in late 2018, the economic slowdown and the Bund’s safe haven status are all factors behind the German bund’s yield fall.

Read More »

Now that Housing Bubble #2 Is Bursting…How Low Will It Go?

2019-02-26

by

2019-02-26

Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index, 1990 - 2019
There are two generalities that can be applied to all asset bubbles: 1. Bubbles inflate for longer and reach higher levels than most pre-bubble analysts expected. 2. All bubbles burst, despite mantra-like claims that "this time it's different".

Read More »

Is Lending the Root of All Evil? Report 24 Feb

2019-02-25

by

2019-02-25

Gold and Silver Price
Ayn Rand famously defended money. In Atlas Shrugged, Francisco D’Anconia says: “So you think that money is the root of all evil? . . . Have you ever asked what is the root of money? Money is a tool of exchange, which can’t exist unless there are goods produced and men able to produce them.

Read More »

FX Daily, February 25: Dollar Thumped on Confirmation of Tariff Delay while Stocks Advance

2019-02-25

by

2019-02-25

Overview: The extension of the US-China tariff freeze had been telegraphed, but the confirmation is the single biggest driver of the day. Equities, led by a 5%+ advance in China, have rallied in Asia and Europe. Benchmark 10-year bond yields are mostly 1-2 basis points higher.  Peripheral yields are lower.

Read More »

Switzerland Employment Barometer in the Q4 2018: Situation Sustained

2019-02-25

by

2019-02-25

Switzerland Employment Level, Q4 2018
In the 4th quarter 2018, total employment (number of jobs) rose by 1.3% in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier (+0.2% with previous quarter; seasonally adjusted figures). In full-time equivalents, employment in the same period rose by 1.6%.

Read More »

More Job seekers abroad drain Swiss Unemployment Benefits

2019-02-25

by

2019-02-25

The number of people drawing on Swiss unemployment benefits while searching for a job in the European Union has risen sharply in the last five years. Foreigners returning home make up the largest share, according to government data analysed by SonntagsBlick.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead

2019-02-25

by

2019-02-25

After a dismal end of 2018, investors are faring better through the first two- thirds of the Q1 19. Equity markets have recouped a good part of the late-2018 decline. Bond yields, however, have not returned to where they previously were. The tightening of financial conditions, which was both cause and effect of heightened anxiety among investors, and spooked some central bank have eased considerably.

Read More »

Decathlon to expand in Switzerland

2019-02-24

by

2019-02-24

The low-cost French sports goods chain has plans to expand in Switzerland. 14 new stores, employing between 500 and 600 staff, are planned for 2019, according to the newspaper 20 Minutes. Many of the new stores will be refurbished Athleticum stores. Décathlon teamed up with Athleticum in 2018.

Read More »

Drug makers paid Swiss doctors 12.5 million francs in 2017

2019-02-24

by

2019-02-24

Since 2016, drug makers have voluntarily published the amounts they pay to Swiss doctors, who prescribe drugs to patients. In 2017 the sum was CHF 12.5 million, according to the association Science Industries. In 2016, the same figure was CHF 14 million. While drug makers publish the amounts paid, the information published does not always reveal the names of doctors receiving the money.

Read More »

Sinking Shippers Signal Global Goods Troubles

2019-02-24

by

2019-02-24

US Treasury Yields 2007-2019
It infects every boardroom across the world. Big business requires decent forecasting, yet time and again it seems they are deprived of what they desperately need. Instead, even after this last decade, the world’s largest companies continue to be surprised by weakness that is far more prevalent than strength.

Read More »

Average Swiss rent barely rises over 7 years

2019-02-23

by

2019-02-23

Recently published data show that close to 60% of households in Switzerland rented their home at an average cost of CHF 1,329 per month in 2017. Average monthly rents ranged from CHF 752 for a studio up to CHF 2,323 for 6 rooms or more.

Read More »

Homeless Encampments and Luxury Apartments: Our Long Strange Boom

2019-02-23

by

2019-02-23

US Median Household Income
It's been a long, strange economic boom since the nadir of the Global Financial Meltdown in 2009. A 10-year long boom that saw the S&P 500 rise from 666 in early 2009 to 2,780 and GDP rise by 43% has been slightly more uneven for most participants.

Read More »

FX Daily, February 22: Markets Ending Week with A Whimper

2019-02-22

by

2019-02-22

Overview:  The global capital markets are winding down what appears to be an inconclusive week quietly and on a mixed note.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is poised to snap a four-day advance but held on to a nearly 2% gain for the week.  European bourses are mostly higher, and although the weekly advance of around 0.5% may not be that impressive, Dow Jones Stoxx 600 has only fallen in one of the first eight weeks of the year for a 9.5% year-to-date...

Read More »

What’s Up With Australia’s 80 Tonnes Of Gold At The Bank Of England?

2019-02-22

by

2019-02-22

Recently, news network RT.com asked for comments on the question of the 80 tonnes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) gold reserves and their supposed storage location at the Bank of England's gold vaults in London. Based on some of those comments I made, RT has now published an article in its English language news website at www.rt.com about this Australian gold that the RBA claims is held in London.

Read More »

Declining trend of cross-border workers continues

2019-02-22

by

2019-02-22

The number of cross-border workers in Switzerland – except those from France – has dropped for the second consecutive quarter. This marks the second year-on-year decline by quarter in 20 years. According to numbers released by the Federal Statistical Office on Thursday, the fourth quarter of 2018 saw 2,000 fewer people commuting to Switzerland to work compared to the same period the year before.

Read More »

FOMC Minutes: The New Narrative Takes Shape

2019-02-22

by

2019-02-22

Money Markets Equivalents 2009-2018
Nothing the Fed did today, or has done up to today, has changed the curves. Eurodollar futures and UST’s, they are both still inverted. The former sharply inverted. The only thing that has changed since early January is the narrative – and not in a charitable way. It is treated as a positive when it is a pretty visible signal about deteriorating circumstances.

Read More »