Tag Archive: newsletter

Pandemic, Economic Shutdowns, Debt Crisis and Gold At $5,000/oz

2020-05-31

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2020-05-31

Gold bull and bear markets, 1971-2020
◆ GoldCore are delighted to publish the 14th edition of the annual “In Gold We Trust” report, “The Dawning of a Golden Decade” by by our friends Ronald-Peter Stoeferle & Mark J. Valek of Incrementum AG.Gold prices should rise to over $5,000/oz and may rise as high as $9,000/oz in the coming decade and by 2030, according to the respected report.

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Dollar Firm as US-China Tensions Continue to Rise

2020-05-31

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2020-05-31

Chinese Fix Yuan, 2019-2020
Tensions between the US and China continue to rise; the dollar is finding some traction. Fed Beige Book contained no surprises; NY Fed President Williams said the Fed is “thinking very hard” about targeting yields; weekly jobless claims are expected at 2.1 mln vs. 2.438 mln last week .

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Swiss Covid-19 contact tracing app ready for privacy testing

2020-05-30

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2020-05-30

Authorities have released the source code of the SwissCovid app to the public to allow experts and hackers to detect any risks to privacy before the official launch.

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Coronavirus: Switzerland plans to lift all restrictions on Schengen movement

2020-05-30

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2020-05-30

Switzerland’s Federal Council plans to lift all travel restrictions and re-establish free movement of persons across the Schengen area no later than 6 July 2020 and possibly as early as mid June, it announced today. If the epidemiological evolution allows, restrictions on entering, working and living in Switzerland will be lifted for all Schengen states from mid-June and no later than 6 July, said the government.

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Asia Lockdowns vs. Re-Openings

2020-05-30

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2020-05-30

We apply the five-factor model used to analyse lockdowns and openings in developed markets and in Latin America to Asian Markets. It evaluates the restrictions imposed by different countries in the region, how they compare in terms of severity of lockdown, and where they are heading in the spectrum of reopening. The scale we use measures grade restrictions from 1 (open) to 4 (closed) across the following five factors: (a) schools/universities, (b)...

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Is Your Pension ‘Good as Gold’?

2020-05-30

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2020-05-30

With the current level of uncertainty in world markets we have received numerous requests for information on how self directed pension schemes (pre and post retirement) can hold gold and silver.It is accepted that if gold bullion is held via a gold certificates ( Perth Mint Certificates with GoldCore) or in Secure Storage in a variety of local or international locations with GoldCore, then it is not considered a ‘pride in possession’ article or...

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FX Daily, May 29: Month-End Profit-Taking Weighs on Equities as the Euro Pops Above $1.11

2020-05-29

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2020-05-29

Overview:  The announcement that President Trump will hold a press conference on China later today rattled investors yesterday after they had earlier shrugged off the escalation of tension between the US and China to take the S&P 500 up to its highest level in nearly three months.  The S&P 500 reversed and settled on its lows, and this carried over into today's activity, which also may be reflecting month-end adjustments.

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2021 Geneva Motor Show ‘very uncertain’ as organisers reject loan

2020-05-29

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2020-05-29

The 2021 edition of the Geneva International Motor Show remains touch and go after the organisers rejected the terms surrounding a state rescue loan. This year’s car show was cancelled four days prior to its opening due to the coronavirus outbreak, costing an estimated loss of CHF11 million ($11.3 million) for the organisers of Switzerland’s largest public event.

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Swiss have mixed feelings about working from home, according to survey

2020-05-29

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2020-05-29

Working from home is a mixed bag of pros and cons for most Swiss who were surveyed by gfs.bern in March and April 2020. But it worked for most. In 2019, before the outbreak of the corona pandemic, around 1.1 million employees in Switzerland occasionally worked from home.

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Getting A Sense of the Economy’s Current Hole and How the Government’s Measures To Fill It (Don’t) Add Up

2020-05-29

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2020-05-29

GDP Pro Forma, 2010-2020
The numbers just don’t add up. Even if you treat this stuff on the most charitable of terms, dollar for dollar, way too much of the hole almost certainly remains unfilled. That’s the thing about “stimulus” talk; for one thing, people seem to be viewing it as some kind of addition without thinking it all the way through first.You have to begin by sizing up the gross economic deficit it is being haphazardly poured into – with an additional emphasis...

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Why Congressional “Oversight” of the Bureaucracy Is No Such Thing

2020-05-29

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2020-05-29

I have long been fascinated by both public policy and the interesting crooks, crannies, and oddities found in the English language. Recently, I came across one such tidbit which connected both of those interests. Hugh Rawson, in "Janus Words—Two-faced English" on the Cambridge Dictionary blog, was discussing a number of English words that are sometimes called Janus words, after the Roman god depicted with two faces pointing in opposite directions,...

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FX Daily, May 28: Escalating Tensions, Calm Markets

2020-05-28

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2020-05-28

Overview: The US Secretary of State's announcement that the autonomy of Hong Kong could no longer be affirmed did not derail the rally in US equities. However, the threat of an executive order against social media companies may be discouraging follow-through buying, leaving US equities little changed ahead of the open. In contrast, Asia Pacific and European equities are mostly higher.

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Weekly View – One country, two systems at risk

2020-05-28

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2020-05-28

Last week, German chancellor Merkel delivered a surprise about-face when she and French president Macron announced a proposal for a EUR 500bn recovery fund in the wake of the coronavirus crisis. The unprecedented plan involves the distribution of grants, rather than loans, to member states in economic need.

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Swiss industry endured horror April during pandemic peak

2020-05-28

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2020-05-28

Swiss watch exports slumped by over 80% last month, recording sales of just CHF329 million ($339 million) – compared with CHF1.76 billion in April 2019. Both exports and imports in all industries endured a predictably dire performance as Covid-19 resulted in national lockdowns.

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Coronavirus fuels Swiss bicycling surge

2020-05-28

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2020-05-28

While demand for public transport collapsed during Switzerland's partial lockdown, bicycle usage soared across the country. But greater acceptance of cycling nationwide will depend on further political decisions and transport planning.

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Hong Kong Turbulence Likely to Rise as US-China Relations Worsen

2020-05-28

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2020-05-28

Recent moves by China call into direct question the “one country, two systems” approach.  Hong Kong assets have held up surprisingly well but we see turbulence ahead as US-China relations are set to deteriorate further.

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An Economy That Cannot Allow Stocks to Decline Is Too Fragile To Survive

2020-05-28

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2020-05-28

Nasdaq 100 Index, 2020
The fragile ice shelf of speculative bets and debt clinging to the mountainside is making strange creaking sounds-- will you listen or will you ignore it because 'the Fed has our back'? Feast your eyes on the chart below of the Nasdaq 100 stock market Index, which is dominated by the six FAAMNG (rhymes with "famine") stocks: Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Netflix and Google which now account for over 20% of the entire U.S. stock market's...

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Restricted Market Trading Comments

2020-05-28

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2020-05-28

By Dara O’Sullivan, Derrick Leonard, and Ilan Solot, Covid-19 related measures for restricted markets remain largely unchanged this week. Philippines, Bangladesh and Kuwait have extended their lockdown periods, while Kenya and Nigeria continue to face limited liquidity.

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How We Might Respond to a Panedemic Were Society Not So Dominated by the State

2020-05-28

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2020-05-28

“There are no libertarians in an epidemic” crowed Atlantic reporter Peter Nicholas back on March 10, as he listed the numerous economic interventions the Trump administration was undertaking in the wake of the mounting COVID-19 crisis. This intervention, Nicholas declared, just goes to show you that whatever antigovernment talk one might talk, government intervention in the economy is “nothing new and, as may well prove the case this time around,...

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FX Daily, May 27: China and Hong Kong Pressures are Having Limited Knock-on Effects

2020-05-27

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2020-05-27

Overview: The S&P 500 gapped higher yesterday, above the recent ceiling and above the 200-day moving average for the first time since early March. The momentum faltered, and it finished below the opening level and near session lows. The spill-over into today's activity has been minor. The heightened tensions weighed on China and Hong Kong markets, but Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Indian equity markets rose.

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