Tag Archive: newsletter

More Synchronized, More Downturn, Still Global

2019-11-03

by

2019-11-03

China GDP, 2007-2019
China was the world economy’s best hope in 2017. Like it was the only realistic chance to push out of the post-2008 doldrums, a malaise that has grown increasingly spasmatic and dangerous the longer it goes on. Communist authorities, some of them, anyway, reacted to Euro$ #3’s fallout early on in 2016 by dusting off their Keynes. A stimulus panic that turned out to be more panic than stimulus.

Read More »

Traden mit den Insidern – Wie Sie COT Daten profitabel nutzen Teil1

2019-11-02

by

Die COT Daten (Commitments of Traders) zeigen uns jede Woche, wie die großen Marktteilnehmer positioniert sind, wo mit steigenden und wo mit fallenden Preisen gerechnet wird. Profitrader und Asset Manager Martin Goersch nutzt seine Interpretationen dieser Zahlen seit mehr als zehn Jahren als Grundlage seiner Swingtrading-Strategien in Währungen und Rohstoffen. In diesem Webinar wird er Ihnen zeigen, wie auch Sie die tatsächlichen Positionierungen...

Read More »

Switzerland calls time on phone booths

2019-11-02

by

2019-11-02

The last telephone box in French-speaking Switzerland, on the shores of Lake Geneva, was dismantled on Thursday. Swisscom will remove the one in the country – in Baden, northern Switzerland – on November 28. An era in the history of Swiss telecommunications is thus coming to an end, an era that witnessed millions of declarations of love, tears and banal conversations in the little cabins that once stood on almost every street corner.

Read More »

The Inventory Context For Rate Cuts and Their Real Nature/Purpose

2019-11-02

by

2019-11-02

Case Study In Inventory, 2006-2019
What typically distinguishes recessions from downturns is the inventory cycle. Even in 2008, that was the basis for the Great “Recession.” It was distinguished most prominently by the financial conditions and global-reaching panic, true, but the effects of the monetary crash registered heaviest in the various parts of that inventory process. An economy for whatever reasons slows down.

Read More »

Mexico vs. Brazil Near-Term Outlook

2019-11-02

by

2019-11-02

Interest Rates Favor Peso vs Real
Both Brazil and Mexico are in a good position to benefit from the current improvement in market sentiment. However, when comparing the factors driving the currencies of both countries, we think there are relatively more near-term positives for the Mexican peso than for the Brazilian real.

Read More »

Time To Replace Bonds With Gold

2019-11-02

by

2019-11-02

◆ “It may be time to replace bonds with gold”according to the just released excellent new Investment Update by the World Gold Council.◆ Central banks have shifted to a new regime of easy monetary policy, thus reducing expected bond returns.

Read More »

Swiss commission supports new laws to protect whistleblowers

2019-11-01

by

2019-11-01

A commission of the Council of States, Switzerland’s upper house, is in favour of new rules to protect whistleblowers. The proposed rules, which would help to protect those who expose secretive information or activity that is deemed illegal or unethical, were supported by 6 commission votes to 2 with 4 abstentions.

Read More »

FX Daily, November 1: Dollar Remains on the Defensive Ahead of Jobs Report

2019-11-01

by

2019-11-01

Overview: An unexpected increase in China's Caixin manufacturing PMI helped lift Asia Pacific equities after the S&P 500 stumbled yesterday amid concerns that there will not be a phase 2 in US-China trade negotiations. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 4.3% in October, and with the help of gains in China, Hong Kong, Korea, and Taiwan began November with a gain.

Read More »

Swiss Retail Sales, September 2019: +0.6 percent Nominal and +0.9 percent Real

2019-11-01

by

2019-11-01

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, September 2019
Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.6% in nominal terms in September 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.5% compared with the previous month. Real turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.9% in September 2019 compared with the previous year.

Read More »

Swiss Consumer Price Index in October 2019: -0.3 percent YoY, -0.2 percent MoM

2019-11-01

by

2019-11-01

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, October 2019
The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.2% in October 2019 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.8 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was –0.3% compared with the same month of the previous year.

Read More »

SNB’s Jordan: Without negative rates, CHF would be more attractive and rise in value

2019-11-01

by

2019-11-01

In his prepared remarks delivered to pension managers on Thursday, Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas Jordan said negative interest rates and readiness to intervene in the forex market was still essential to ease the pressure on the Swiss Franc.

Read More »

USD/CHF technical analysis: Greenback nearing the October lows, consolidating near 0.9870 level

2019-11-01

by

2019-11-01

USD/CHF daily chart
USD/CHF is consolidating its losses this Thursday. The level to beat for bears is the 0.9855 support. On the daily chart, USD/CHF is trading in a range below its main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs). The market is approaching the October low, currently at the 0.9837 price level.

Read More »

Three (Rate Cuts) And GDP, Where (How) Does It End?

2019-11-01

by

2019-11-01

The Real GDP Problem,1988-2018
The Federal Reserve has indicated that it will now pause – for a second time, supposedly. Remember the first: after raising its benchmark rates apparatus in December while still talking about an inflationary growth acceleration requiring even more hikes throughout 2019, in a matter of weeks that was transformed into a temporary suspension of them.

Read More »

The Inventory Context For Rate Cuts And Their Real Nature/Purpose

2019-11-01

by

2019-11-01

Case Study in Inventory, 2006-2019
What typically distinguishes recessions from downturns is the inventory cycle. Even in 2008, that was the basis for the Great “Recession.” It was distinguished most prominently by the financial conditions and global-reaching panic, true, but the effects of the monetary crash registered heaviest in the various parts of that inventory process.

Read More »

Global Economy Faces ‘Scary Situation’ – Billionaire Investment Manager Dalio Warns

2019-11-01

by

2019-11-01

Likely to have a downturn while “there is not effective monetary policy and that is a ‘scary situation’ – Billionaire Investment Manager Ray Dalio

Read More »

FX Daily, October 31: No Good Deed Goes Unpunished

2019-10-31

by

2019-10-31

Overview: The equity and bond rally in North America yesterday carried over into today's session. With some notable exceptions, like China, Taiwan, Australia, and Indonesia, most bourses in Asia Pacific and Europe traded higher. US shares are little changed in early Europe after the S&P 500 rose to new record highs.

Read More »

The Swiss National Bank reports a profit of CHF 51.5 billion for the first three quarters of 2019

2019-10-31

by

2019-10-31

Income statement, 1 January–30 September 2019
The Swiss National Bank reports a profit of CHF 51.5 billion for the first three quarters of 2019. The profit on foreign currency positions amounted to CHF 42.7 billion. A valuation gain of CHF 7.3 billion was recorded on gold holdings. The profit on Swiss franc positions was CHF 1.7 billion.

Read More »

SNB erzielt in den ersten 9 Monaten 2019 Gewinn von über 50 Milliarden Franken

2019-10-31

by

2019-10-31

Insgesamt verdiente die Nationalbank in der Periode von Januar bis September 2019 51,5 Milliarden Franken, wie sie am Donnerstag mitteilte. Nach einem Plus von 38,5 Milliarden in der ersten Jahreshälfte kamen damit im dritten Jahresviertel nochmals 13,0 Milliarden dazu.

Read More »

Credit Suisse results impress despite damaging spy scandal

2019-10-31

by

2019-10-31

Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam has reiterated that he had nothing to do with the spying scandal that recently rocked the bank. Thiam insisted that the debacle has not damaged business as the bank presented better than expected third quarter results.

Read More »

The Political Parties and the Media Have Abandoned the Working “Middle Class”

2019-10-31

by

2019-10-31

Real Average Household Income, 1965-2015
Where is the line between "working class" and "middle class"? Maybe there isn't any. Defining the "middle class" has devolved to a pundit parlor game, so let's get real for a moment (if we dare): the "middle class" is no longer defined by the traditional metrics of income or job type (blue collar, white collar), but by an entirely different set of metrics:

Read More »