Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, December 1: No Follow-Through After Month-End Adjustments

2020-12-01

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2020-12-01

The near-record rallies seen in the major equity markets in November may have contributed to the month-end drama yesterday. There has been no follow-through activity. Stocks bounced back, and the US dollar is heavy, with few exceptions.

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Switzerland GDP Q3 2020: 7.2 percent QoQ, -1.6 percent YoY

2020-12-01

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2020-12-01

Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ, Q3 2020
Switzerland’s GDP grew by 7.2 % in the 3rd quarter of 2020,  after decreasing by a total of 8.6 % in the first half of the year. Domestic demand and parts of the service sector recovered significantly, while international developments had an adverse impact on exports. Download press release Gross domestic product in the 3rd quarter of 2012 - Still 2 % below pre-crisis level(PDF, 4 pages, 319 kB)...

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That Precious Metals Rumor Mill, 30 November

2020-12-01

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2020-12-01

Gold Basis and Co-basis and the Dollar Price
We are hearing rumors this week of a shortage of the big silver bars, the thousand-ouncers. No, we don’t refer to bullion banks saying this. Nor big dealers, who are happy to sell us as many of these as we can buy. Nor our peeps in high places (we don’t claim to have any such peeps).

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Five lessons from the Swiss ‘responsible business’ vote

2020-12-01

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2020-12-01

The battle over the responsible business initiative is now over. The way the campaign was managed and how the issue was eventually decided says a lot about Switzerland.

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Switzerland and the pandemic: does the economy matter more?

2020-12-01

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2020-12-01

For a nation that prides itself on being on the global forefront of new technologies and science, particularly health care, Switzerland has an astoundingly poor record for dealing with Covid-19. The Lake Geneva region, which borders locked-down France, ranks as one of the worst coronavirus hotspots in Europe.

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2021 is Already Optimized for Failure

2020-12-01

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2020-12-01

One sure way to identify a system "optimized for failure" is if all the insiders are absolutely confident the system is "optimized for my success". I often discuss optimization here because it offers an insightful window into how systems become fragile and break down.

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FX Daily, November 30: Equities are Heavy and the Dollar Softer to Start New Week

2020-11-30

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2020-11-30

Overview: Month-end profit-taking saw Asia Pacific shares tumble earlier today.  Most markets are off 1-2.5% today after the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 2.25% last week.  European shares are mixed, but little changed.  US shares are also trading lower. 

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Swiss Retail Sales, October 2020: 2.6 percent Nominal and 3.1 percent Real

2020-11-30

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2020-11-30

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, October 2020
30.11.2020 - Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 2.6% in nominal terms in October 2020 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 3.3% compared with the previous month.

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Covid Is Just the Latest Excuse for Canada’s Politicians to Violate the Constitution

2020-11-30

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2020-11-30

In terms of their widespread application and rapid implementation, covid-19 policies have been the most egregious violations of Canada’s constitution, ever. But my opinion doesn’t matter, because judges are the only people allowed to interpret the constitution—a convenient arrangement for the government.

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

2020-11-30

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2020-11-30

Dollar weakness has resumed. This will be a very important data week for the US and the highlight will be November jobs data Friday; we will also get some important manufacturing readings for November; the Fed releases its Beige Book report for the December FOMC meeting Wednesday; Canada also has a busy week.

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Swiss home prices rose over the third quarter of 2020

2020-11-30

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2020-11-30

Over the third quarter of 2020, home prices in Switzerland rose by an average of 0.2%. However, the prices of some homes rose while others fell.

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Bill Browder threatens legal action over Swiss bank accounts linked to Magnitsky scandal

2020-11-29

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2020-11-29

High-profile Kremlin critic and investor Bill Browder has threatened Credit Suisse and UBS with legal action for breaching US sanctions if they unfreeze accounts belonging to three Russian clients accused of a huge tax fraud against his investment company.

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Just Who Is, And Who Is Not, Selling T-Bills

2020-11-29

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2020-11-29

Are foreigners selling Treasury bills? If they are, this would seem to merit consideration for the reflation argument. After all, the paramount monetary deficiency exposed by March’s GFC2 (and the Fed’s blatant role in making it worse) was the dangerous degree of shortage over the best collateral.

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Ramon Ray’s Entrepreneurial Communities

2020-11-29

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2020-11-29

“Small business” is just a government classification. Entrepreneurial businesses serving well-defined communities via creative specialization exhibit enormous economic productivity, energy and dynamism. Such businesses can not be defined quantitatively as small, medium or large. They’re defined by their qualitative impact on their customers’ lives. 

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French blockchain firms offer tracing for Swiss watches

2020-11-29

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2020-11-29

The market for second-hand luxury watches is booming. But for the average consumer, it is not easy to tell a fake from the genuine article and determine the real value of a particular timepiece. Certificates based on blockchain technology could provide more transparency.

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Life as an expat in Swiss cities: the good news and the less good news

2020-11-28

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2020-11-28

From tip-top transport in Basel to housing headaches in Geneva, foreign residents share what they love and loathe about the four Swiss cities featured in the Expat City Ranking 2020. This content was published on November 26, 2020 - 09:00 November 26, 2020 - 09:00 Thomas Stephens Born in London, Thomas was a journalist at The Independent before moving to Bern in 2005. He speaks all three official Swiss languages and enjoys...

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Treasury Auctions Are Anything But Sorry Because They’ve Never Been Sorry About Solly

2020-11-28

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2020-11-28

US TIC, 2010-2020
Twenty years ago, in November 2000, the Treasury Department changed one aspect of the way the government would sell its own debt. Auctions of these and other kinds of securities had been ongoing for decades, back to the twenties, and they had been transformed many times along the way. In the middle of the 1970’s Great Inflation, for example, Treasury gradually phased out all other means for issuing securities, by 1977 relying exclusively on...

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Dollar Consolidates Ahead of Thanksgiving Holiday

2020-11-28

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2020-11-28

Yield Curves Spreads, 2020
The divergence in developed markets yield curves continues; the dollar is consolidating ahead of the US holiday. FOMC minutes will be released; weekly jobless claims data will be released a day early; October personal income and spending will be reported; Banco de Mexico releases its quarterly inflation report.

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2021 Would Be a Great Time to Audit the Fed

2020-11-28

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2020-11-28

Gone are the days of the Federal Reserve hiding in the shadows. Now it’s a woke central bank fighting for climate and racial justice. Progressives must not fall for this but instead team up with the populist right to audit the Fed and demand transparency.

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FX Daily, November 27: Dollar Offered Ahead of the Weekend

2020-11-27

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2020-11-27

Equities are finishing the week on a firm tone, while the US dollar remains heavy.   In the Asia Pacific, only Australia and India did not end the week on a firm note.  The MSCI Asia Pacific completed its fourth consecutive weekly gain, for around a 13% gain. 

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