Tag Archive: newsletter

The Beginning of the End for Angela Merkel

2018-11-04

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2018-11-04

Germany Next General Elections, Sep 2017 - Nov 2018
As a consequence of the heavy drop of support in recent regional elections, Chancellor Merkel has declared she would not run again for leadership of the CDU at the 6-8 December party convention. Merkel also said she would retire from politics at the end of the current parliament in 2021. It is questionable whether she will get that far, and well before then, the transition to a new leader amid a loss of electoral support for the main centre-right...

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Geneva Aims for a New Company Tax Rate of 13.79 percent

2018-11-04

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2018-11-04

Geneva
According to bilan.ch, Geneva’s Council of State, or executive, has put forward a proposed corporate tax rate of 13.79% as part of its tax reform project, work triggered by international pressure on Switzerland and its cantons to remove preferential tax treatment for certain international companies.

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What’s Behind the Erosion of Civil Society?

2018-11-04

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2018-11-04

Smartphone Addiction Tightens Its Global Grip
Rebuilding social capital and social connectedness is not something that can be done by governments or corporations. As the mid-term elections are widely viewed as a referendum of sorts, let's set aside politics and ask, what's behind the erosion of our civil society? That civil society in the U.S. and elsewhere is fraying is self-evident.

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Crypto bond catapults Swiss franc onto blockchain

2018-11-03

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2018-11-03

A new bond has been launched in Switzerland to help investors and blockchain start-ups escape the volatility of cryptocurrencies. Issued by Swiss Crypto Tokens, the bond is a representation of the safe haven currency on the blockchain. The first 10 million units of the bond, each worth a franc and pegged to the Swiss currency, are sold out and will be issued on Thursday.

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Top Finance Ministry Official to Step Down

2018-11-03

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2018-11-03

Jorg Gasser
The State Secretary for International Finance, Jörg Gasser, is to step down in February after three years in office. It was Gasser’s decision to leave the post, according to a statement by the finance ministry on Wednesday.

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China Now Japan; China and Japan

2018-11-03

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2018-11-03

Japan Industrial Production, NSA 2000-2018
Trade war stuff didn’t really hit the tape until several months into 2018. There were some noises about it back in January, but there was also a prominent liquidation in global markets in the same month. If the world’s economy hit a wall in that particular month, which is the more likely candidate for blame? We see it register in so many places. Canada, Europe, Brazil, etc.

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Swiss Retail Sales, September 2018: -2.3 percent Nominal and -2.7 percent Real

2018-11-02

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2018-11-02

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, September 2018
Turnover in the retail sector fell by 2.3% in nominal terms in September 2018 compared with the previous year. This is the sharpest decline since December 2016. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 1.6% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Die SNB hat den Währungskrieg selbst angezettelt – und schon wieder eine Schlacht verloren

2018-11-02

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2018-11-02

SNB Trade War
Die SNB befürchtet einen Handelskrieg, der in einen Währungskrieg münden und schliesslich zu einer grossen Depression führen könnte. Wir alle wissen, dass nach der grossen Depression der Weltkrieg kam. Die Ökonomen und Zentralbanker sind also aufs äusserste gefordert. Eine exakte ökonomische Analyse hat höchste Priorität.

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Rebound in inflation data brings some relief to the ECB

2018-11-02

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2018-11-02

Euro Area HICP Inflation, 2011 - 2018
Euro area flash HICP rose from 2.1% year on year (y-o-y) in September to 2.2% in October, in line with expectations and the highest level since December 2012. Crucially, core inflation (HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rebounded from 0.9% to 1.1% in October.

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How to Run a Swiss Business – a Guide to 7 Essential Tasks

2018-11-02

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2018-11-02

Running-a-company-Switzerland
Businesses that employ people, including independents, must pay social insurance taxes. These are administered by compensation funds and rates vary slightly by fund and canton, but are around 15% of salaries. The rate for independents is lower.

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Bloomberg Interview with Jeffrey Snider

2018-11-02

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2018-11-02

Why Eurodollars Might Be Key to the Market Sell-Off (Podcast). There’s a huge market out there that doesn’t get much attention: Eurodollars. These have nothing to do with the euro-dollar exchange rate. Instead, eurodollars are U.S. dollar-denominated deposits at foreign banks and overseas branches of American banks.

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FX Daily, November 01: Dollar Slumps to Start New Month

2018-11-01

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2018-11-01

Overview: It appears that month-end considerations deterred the dollar selling that the technical indicators warned was coming and as the new month starts, the dollar is offered. It is weaker against all the major currencies and most of the emerging market currencies.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in October 2018: +1.1 percent YoY, +0.2 percent MoM

2018-11-01

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2018-11-01

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, October 2018
The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% in October 2018 compared with the previous month, reaching 102.1 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was 1.1% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Cheat Sheet

2018-11-01

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2018-11-01

Jobs data ahead of the weekend should recover after a storm depressed the September jobs growth. The base effect will allow earnings to show a strong year-over-year gain. The FOMC meets next week. A 25 bp rate hike in December remains the most likely scenario despite the heightened volatility in the stock market.

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More Swiss construction workers go on strike

2018-11-01

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2018-11-01

Following strikes in Ticino and Geneva earlier this month, 1,500 construction workers have continued the protest in French-speaking Switzerland. According to the labour unions, more than 1,500 workers from cantons Freiburg, Neuchâtel, Valais and Jura put their tools down on Tuesday.

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Another ‘Highest In Ten Years’

2018-11-01

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2018-11-01

ECI, Jan 2001 - Oct 2018
Upon the precipice of the Great “Recession”, US workers were cushioned to some extent by what economists call sticky wages. Before the Great Depression, as well as during it, companies would attempt to deal with looming economic contraction by cutting pay rates before workers.

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Gold Analysts At LBMA See 25percent Return To $1,532/oz In 12 months

2018-11-01

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2018-11-01

Gold in USD (10 Years)
The price of gold is expected to rise to $1,532 an ounce by October next year, delegates to the London Bullion Market Association’s (LBMA) annual gathering predicted on Tuesday. A poll of delegates at the LBMA conference in Boston also predicted higher prices in a year’s time for silver, platinum and palladium.

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FX Daily, October 31: No Fright on This Halloween

2018-10-31

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2018-10-31

After sliding hard this month, equities continue to stabilize into month-end. All of the equity markets in Asia-Pacific rallied with the help of a solid close in the US. European bourses are higher too as the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 tries to extend the recovery for a third consecutive session, led by energy, materials, and information technology.

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SNB reports a loss of CHF 7.8 billion for third quarter of 2018

2018-10-31

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2018-10-31

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reports a loss of CHF 7.8 billion for the first three quarters of 2018. A valuation loss of CHF 3.7 billion was recorded on gold holdings. The loss on foreign currency positions amounted to CHF 5.3 billion. The profit on Swiss franc positions was CHF 1.5 billion.

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Euro area’s initial growth figures for Q3 prove disappointing

2018-10-31

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2018-10-31

US Versus Euro Area Real GDP Growth 2005-2019
While growth in France rebounded, Italy stalled in Q3. Our full-year forecast for the euro area remains unchanged but is clearly at risk.According to initial estimates, growth in the euro area slowed in Q3 to 0.2% q-o-q (quarter on quarter) from 0.4% in Q2. These latest GDP results were below consensus expectations and our own forecast.

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