Tag Archive: newsletter

So Much Bond Bull

2020-05-21

by

2020-05-21

Federal Reserve: H.10 Foreign Exchange Rates, 2017-2020
Count me among the bond vigilantes. On the issue of supply I yield (pun intended) to no one. The US government is the brokest entity humanity has ever conceived – and that was before March 2020. There will be a time, if nothing is done, where this will matter a great deal.That time isn’t today nor is it tomorrow or anytime soon because it’s the demand side which is so confusing and misdirected.

Read More »

Modern Monetary Theory makes inroads following coronavirus crisis

2020-05-20

by

2020-05-20

US policymakers’ bold actions in response to the coronavirus bear some traces of the free-wheeling deficits, repressed interest rates and central bank activism (money creation) that form the cornerstones of the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) playbook.

Read More »

Italy set to reopen borders with Switzerland from 3 June 2020

2020-05-20

by

2020-05-20

Italy is preparing to reopen its borders with the rest of Europe, according to the newspaper La Repubblica. A draft law on new rules was published on 15 May 2020 by the Italian Council of Ministers. It provides for the possibility of allowing entry to Italy from 3 June 2020 without requiring those arriving from certain countries to quarantine for 14 days. The countries include EU nations and Schengen members, including Switzerland and Monaco.

Read More »

How crypto mining tried, but failed, to gain a Swiss toehold

2020-05-20

by

2020-05-20

There was a time when any Tom, Dick or Harry could create (or “mine”) bitcoin with a modified PC. Now only warehouses packed full of specialised computing gear stand any real chance. The bones of defunct crypto mines litter the Swiss Alps.

Read More »

Consumer Spending Will Not Rebound–Here’s Why

2020-05-20

by

2020-05-20

Share of total US income, 1980-2015
Any economy that concentrates its wealth and income in the top tier is a fragile economy. There are two structural reasons why consumer spending will not rebound, no matter how open the economy may be. Virtually everyone who glances at headlines knows the global economy is lurching into either a deep recession or a full-blown depression, depending on the definitions one is using. Everyone also knows the stock market has roared back as if nothing...

Read More »

The ECB Has Been Hiding Risk. They Won’t Be Able to Do It Much Longer.

2020-05-20

by

2020-05-20

Italy 10-Year vs. German 10-Year / Spain 10-Year vs. German 10-Year / Portugal 10-Year vs. German 10-Year
Despite the unprecedented increase in the European Central Bank’s asset purchase program, the spread of southern European sovereign bonds versus German ones is rising.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 19: Optimism Burns Eternal

2020-05-19

by

2020-05-19

Overview: Hopes for a vaccine and a German-French proposal to break the logjam at the EU for a joint recovery effort helped propel equities higher yesterday. There was strong follow-through in the Asia Pacific region, where most markets advanced by more than 1% today. However,  the bloom came off the rose, so to speak, in Europe. After a higher opening, markets reversed lower, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off about 0.75% in late morning turnover.

Read More »

Why is the Pound to Euro Rate Falling? Will it Continue?

2020-05-19

by

2020-05-19

U.K jobless claims were released in early morning trading today, much like many economic data releases the figures were posted at an earlier than usual 07:00, we normally would see a release such as this out at 09:30. The figures, as expected were not particularly great reading for the U.K economy however there was a slight surprise in the fact that the official unemployment rate came in at 3.9% as opposed to the 4.3% which had been expected.

Read More »

House View, May 2020

2020-05-19

by

2020-05-19

With leading economies likely facing double-digit declines in GDP in Q1 and Q2, we expect Brent oil in the USD10–20 range in Q2 before reaching a long-term equilibrium of USD18 at year’s end. With consumers tempted to remain cautious, the oil sector in deep difficulty and a big rise in unemployment, we expect dire Q2 GDP figures for the US. We have reduced our GDP forecast for 2020 as a whole to -7.7%.

Read More »

Restricted Market Trading Comments

2020-05-19

by

2020-05-19

Covid-19 related measures for restricted markets remain largely unchanged this week. Philippines, Bangladesh and Kuwait have extended their lockdown periods, while Kenya and Nigeria continue to face limited liquidity. Please see trading comments below

Read More »

Money Supply Growth in April Ballooned to a New High

2020-05-19

by

2020-05-19

YoY Change in money supply, 1998-2019
Fueled by unprecedented quantitative easing, central bank asset purchases, and various stimulus packages, the money supply growth rate ballooned in April to an all-time high. The growth rate has never been higher, with the 1970s as the only period that comes close. It was expected that money supply growth would surge in recent months. This usually happens in the wake of the early months of a recession or financial crisis.

Read More »

How Words Like “Essential” and “Need” Are Abused by Politicians

2020-05-19

by

2020-05-19

Over the years, one of the most common trump cards used to justify government treating people differently, rather than equally, has been the word need. And when used to override individuals’ ownership of themselves and what they produce, its usage has created confusion rather than clarity. In public discussion, “need” has increasingly morphed into one of its synonyms—essential, as in “essential jobs.” But it still suffers from many of the same...

Read More »

FX Daily, May 18: Yuan Slumps as US-Chinese Tensions Rise

2020-05-18

by

2020-05-18

Overview: Despite somber warnings that the US economic recovery can stretch to the end of next year, investors have begun the new week by taking on new risks. Most equity markets in the Asia Pacific region rose, with Australia leading the large bourses with a 1% gain. India was an outlier, suffering a 2.4% loss, and Taiwan's semiconductor sector was hit, and the Taiex fell 0.6%.

Read More »

Kauf von Swiss Re – 6 Monate Nachkauf Regel gebrochen? ??

2020-05-18

by

2020-05-18

Ich habe nun eine meiner Regeln gebrochen, normalerweise kaufe ich Aktien jeweils nur alle 6 Monate nach. Bei Swiss Re habe ich allerdings noch einmal zugeschlagen und 30 Stück ins Depot geholt. Der letzte Kauf lag nur 2 Monate zurück. Hier geht’s übrigens zum letzten Aktien Kauf AT&T. Kauf von Swiss ReMit diesem Kauf von Swiss Re habe ich nun insgesamt 110 Aktien in meinem Depot.

Read More »

National Bank snubs calls for more coronavirus money

2020-05-18

by

2020-05-18

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has dismissed demands to increase its payout to help the economy cope with the costs of the coronavirus pandemic. Governing board member Andréa Maechler an additional financial contribution would counteract monetary policy.

Read More »

Minister calls for extra funds for Swiss unemployment system

2020-05-18

by

2020-05-18

Economics Minister Guy Parmelin says it is crucial to end the lockdown and prevent a collapse of the unemployment scheme to ensure Switzerland’s economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis. Parmelin said the government would decide on an injection of additional funds into the state unemployment scheme at one of its next meetings.

Read More »

Clean gold: How Switzerland could set new supply chain standards

2020-05-18

by

2020-05-18

Switzerland is the undisputed top dog of the global gold industry, refining a majority of the world’s gold, as well as being the leading exporter. But how seriously does the country take its responsibility to ensure sustainable mining and the protection of human rights? 

Read More »

How Central Banks and Lockdowns Are Making the Crisis Worse

2020-05-18

by

2020-05-18

What typifies the phenomenon of the boom-bust cycle is that it is recurrent. What is the reason for this? Loose monetary policies set the platform for various activities that would not emerge without the easy monetary stance. What loose monetary policy does here is to engineer the transfer of real savings from wealth generating activities to artificially stimulated activities, which we can label as bubble activities.

Read More »

‘Clean and safe’ image could boost Swiss tourism

2020-05-17

by

2020-05-17

Switzerland Tourism has welcomed next month’s re-opening of borders with France, Germany and Austria. It believes the country’s reputation for cleanliness and tidiness could be a selling point once the Covid-19 pandemic dies down.

Read More »