Tag Archive: newsletter

Switzerland blacklisted by ILO

2019-05-19

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2019-05-19

Employees who are active in trade unions are not sufficiently protected from being sacked in Switzerland, according to the International Labour Organization (ILO). The Geneva-based body has added Switzerland to a blacklist – just before a centenary conference in the Swiss city. The list comprises 40 countries that violate ILO conventions. Together with Greece and Belarus, Switzerland is the only European country to feature.

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Global Doves Expire: Fed Pause Fizzles (US Retail Sales)

2019-05-18

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2019-05-18

Retail Sales, NSA 2010-2019
Before the stock market’s slide beginning in early October, for most people they heard the economy was booming, the labor market was unbelievably good, an inflationary breakout just over the horizon. Jay Powell did as much as anyone to foster this belief, chief caretaker to the narrative. He and his fellow central bankers couldn’t use the word “strong” enough.

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Government performs fighter jet U-turn

2019-05-18

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2019-05-18

The Federal Council has changed its approach to buying new combat aircraft and anti-aircraft missiles. Swiss voters will now be able to have a say only on the fighter jets, on which the government wants to spend no more than CHF6 billion ($5.95 billion). It has asked the defence ministry to present a planning decision no later than the beginning of September.

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FX Daily, May 17: China Questions US Sincerity

2019-05-17

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2019-05-17

Since the presidential tweets on May 3, the US had the initiative in the negotiations with China, but today, China has pushed back. It is cool to the idea promoted by the US that trade talks will resume shortly. Now it may take the Trump-Xi meeting at the end of next month to restart talks. This, coupled with US sanctions on Huawei banning imports from it and sales to it, threatens to disrupt business and this took a toll on Chinese, Taiwanese and...

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Swiss Labour Force Survey in 1st quarter 2019: 0.8percent increase in number of employed persons; unemployment rate based on ILO definition at 4.9percent

2019-05-17

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2019-05-17

Unemployed According to ILO, Q1 2014-Q1 2019
16.05.2019 - The number of employed persons in Switzerland rose by 0.8% between the 1st quarter 2018 and the 1st quarter 2019. During the same period, the unemployment rate as defined by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) declined from 5.2% to 4.9%. The EU's unemployment rate decreased from 7.4% to 6.8%. These are some of the results from the Swiss Labour Force Survey (SLFS).

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Core sovereign bond yields – update

2019-05-17

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2019-05-17

10-Year Yield, 2016-2019
We are adjusting downward our year-end targets for the 10-year US Treasury and Bund yields.Taking hold of two important changes to our central macroeconomic scenarios, we are adjusting downward our year-end target for the 10-year US Treasury yield from 3.0% to 2.8% and the Bund yield from 0.5% to 0.3%. 

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Older unemployed to get more help from government

2019-05-17

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2019-05-17

The government has announced measures to help Swiss-based workers have better access to the job market. Plans to help older people out of a job are also outlined. The measures, outlined on Wednesday by interior minister Alain Berset and justice minister Karin Keller-Sutter, are part of efforts to adapt to an ageing workforce and to new rules forcing employers to give priority to Swiss-based workers.

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FX Daily, May 16: US Struggles to Strike a Less Strident Tone

2019-05-16

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2019-05-16

Overview: Retail sales and industrial production disappointed in both the US and China prior to the end of the tariff truce, declared by the US in a series of presidential tweets on May 5.  The reaction function of the US to the drop in equities was to play down tensions on three fronts.  First, a US team is expected to return to Beijing in the coming weeks. 

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The Thumbnail Sketch of the Euro You are Looking For

2019-05-16

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2019-05-16

Here is an overview of the broad macro considerations for the euro, with some thoughts about the price action, including volatility. It is shared not so much as an argument as a sketch the considerations that drive a view.

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Protests against 5G mobile continue in Switzerland

2019-05-16

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2019-05-16

Last week, a crowd assembled in Bern outside Switzerland’s federal parliament building to protest the roll out of 5G mobile technology in Switzerland. Switzerland’s “Stop 5G” movement is demanding a halt to further roll out of the technology in Switzerland, a process already well underway. They are demanding a precautionary approach and further research into the health effects.

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Effective Recession First In Japan?

2019-05-16

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2019-05-16

Japan Real GDP, 2008-2019
For a lot of people, a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. This is called the technical definition in the mainstream and financial media. While this specific pattern can indicate a change in the business cycle, it’s really only one narrow case. Recessions are not just tied to GDP. In the US, the Economists who make the determination (the NBER) will tell you recessions aren’t always so straightforward.

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FX Daily, May 15: Angst Continues

2019-05-15

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2019-05-15

Overview: Disappointing Chinese April data spurred speculation that more stimulus will be forthcoming and bolsters hopes that a trade deal with the US by the end of next month helped Asian Pacific equities advance for the first time this week.  Indonesia, which reported a record trade deficit on the back of collapsing exports (-13.1% year-over-year in April, nearly twice the decline expected after a 10% fall in March) kept the pressure on its...

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Why China Finds it Difficult to Weaponize the Yuan and US Treasuries

2019-05-15

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2019-05-15

It looks so easy on paper. China can sell its holding of US Treasuries and/or weaken the yuan to offset the tariffs and boost exports. It is the first and easy answers from strategists, journalists, and some academics. Often times, it is presented a novel idea; as if diplomats, investors, and policymakers have not thought it.

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Gold Tops $1,300/oz As Trade Wars Escalate and Increased Risk of U.S. War With Iran

2019-05-15

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2019-05-15

Gold in USD, May 2018 - 2019
Gold sees safe haven demand push it to highest in one month as it breaches key $1,300/oz and £1,000/oz levels. U.S. China trade wars escalates as China retaliates and imposes tariffs on $60 billion of U.S. goods. Increased risk of war in Middle East after U.S. alleges Iran bombed Saudi oil vessels destined for the U.S.

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Warmer weather sparks huge hike in Swiss e-bike sales

2019-05-15

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2019-05-15

Unusually warm and dry weather conditions have been credited with boosting bicycle sales last year – with a greater proportion of cyclists opting to ease muscle strain with the assistance of e-bikes in Switzerland’s mountainous terrain. On Tuesday, the cycling enthusiasts group dynaMot added more detail to figures put out by the Swiss Bicycle Suppliers Association in March.

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The Economy Has Fundamentally Changed in the 21st Century–and Not for the Better

2019-05-15

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2019-05-15

Smaller Slice of the Pie
The net result is we have an economy that's supposedly expanding smartly while our well-being and financial security are collapsing. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and other metrics of economic activity don't measure either broad-based prosperity or well-being. Elites skimming financialization profits by expanding corporate debt and issuing more loans to commoners while spending more on their lifestyles boosts GDP quite nicely while the security and...

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FX Daily, May 14: Too Weak to Muster Much of a Turnaround Tuesday, Markets See Small Reprieve

2019-05-14

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2019-05-14

OECD Gauge hits Lowest Level
President Trump's willingness to meet China's Xi at the G20 meeting at the end of next month and his "feeling" that an agreement will still be found seemed sufficient to break the momentum that had swept through the capital market.

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Pound to Swiss franc forecast: Brexit to continue to drive pound to swiss franc exchange rates

2019-05-14

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2019-05-14

Since the start of the year the general trend for pound to swiss franc exchange rates has seen the pound strengthen. GBP/CHF mid-market levels started the year in the 1.23s and now are trading in the 1.30s. The pound strengthened as UK Prime Minister Theresa May extended Article50 by 6 months, which means the UK will not leave the EU without a deal.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in April 2019: -0.6 percent YoY, unchanged MoM

2019-05-14

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2019-05-14

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, April 2019
The Producer and Import Price Index remained unchanged in April 2019 compared with the previous month. The index stood at 102.2 points (December 2015 = 100). Higher prices were seen in particular for petrol and machinery, while diesel and heating oil became cheaper.

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Burnout Nation

2019-05-14

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2019-05-14

U.S. Stress, 2012 - 2017
A number of recent surveys reflect a widespread sense of financial stress and symptoms of poor health in America's workers, particularly the younger generations. There's no real mystery as to the cause of this economic anxiety:

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