Tag Archive: newsletter

How Much of Your “Wealth” Is Hostage to Bubbles and Impossible Promises?

2019-06-18

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2019-06-18

S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, 1990-2015
All asset "wealth" in credit-asset bubble dependent economies is contingent and ephemeral. A funny thing happens to "wealth" in a bubble economy: it only remains "wealth" if the owner sells at the top of the bubble and invests the proceeds in an asset which isn't losing purchasing power.

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Raiffeisen bank announces CHF1 million executive pay cap

2019-06-18

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2019-06-18

Switzerland’s third largest bank will limit the annual remuneration of top management to CHF1 million (around $1million) from July 1. The announcement was made at the bank’s general meeting on Saturday in Crans-Montana. CEO Heinz Huber’s compensation has already been adjusted when he took up his duties in January.

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The Elephant in the Gold Room, Report 16 June

2019-06-17

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2019-06-17

Gold and Silver Price
We will start this off with a pet peeve. Too often, one is reading something about gold. It starts off well enough, discussing problems with the dollar or the bond market or a real estate bubble… and them bam! Buy gold because the dollar is gonna be worthless! That number again is 1-800-BUY-GOLD or we have another 1-800-GOT-GOLD in case the lines on the first number are busy!

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FX Daily, June 17: Quiet Start to Big Week

2019-06-17

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2019-06-17

Overview: The global capital markets are off to a subdued start to what promises to be a busy week, featuring the FOMC, BOE, BOJ meetings, and the flash June PMIs. Investors also expect some signal whether Presidents Trump and Xi will at the G20 meeting later this month. Asian equities were narrowly mixed.

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Swiss healthcare costs expected to rise well above inflation

2019-06-17

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2019-06-17

The cost of health insurance in Switzerland is expected to rise 3% both this year and next, warns the umbrella group for health insurers, Santésuisse. This is way above the forecast rise in consumer goods prices of 0.9% for 2019.

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Supplementary accommodation recorded more than 16 million overnight stays in 2018

2019-06-17

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2019-06-17

Overnight stays according to host country and accommodation type in 2017-2018, hotel industry
17.06.2019 - In 2018, supplementary accommodation posted a total of 16.6 million overnight stays, i.e. an increase of 4.2% compared with 2017. With 11.2 million units, Swiss visitors represented more than two-thirds of demand (67.4%), i.e. a rise of 2.9%. Foreign visitors registered a 6.9% increase with 5.4 million units. With 4.5 million units (+6.7%), European visitors generated the most overnight stays by foreigners.

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Misplaced Pride: Most of the “Middle Class” Is Actually Working Class

2019-06-17

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2019-06-17

Concentration of stock ownership by Wealth Bracket
If we look at these charts, it looks like only the top 10%, or perhaps the top 20% at best, might qualify as "middle class" by the metrics described below. The conventional definition of working class is based on income and education:the working class household earns between $30,000 and $69,000 annually, and the highest education credential in the household is a two-year community college degree or trade certification.

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Swiss restaurant ranked best in the world

2019-06-16

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2019-06-16

A ranking by Elite Traveler placed the restaurant Hôtel de Ville de Crissier first in a list of the world’s 100 best restaurants, eight places higher than last year. The ranking is based on the votes of readers of the magazine, which is distributed to private jet companies around the world.

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When Verizons Multiply, Macro In Inflation

2019-06-16

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2019-06-16

CPI Changes On Energy, 1995-2019
Inflation always brings out an emotional response. Far be it for me to defend Economists, but their concept is at least valid – if not always executed convincingly insofar as being measurable. An inflation index can be as meaningful as averaging the telephone numbers in a phone book (for anyone who remembers what those things were).

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FX Weekly Preview: FOMC, EMU PMI, and Pre-G20 Positioning: Crossroads and Crosswinds

2019-06-15

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2019-06-15

The week ahead is likely to provide some clarification for investors on three fronts that have been a source of uncertainty.  The FOMC meeting, with updated forecasts, is center stage.  The credit markets are pushing the Fed to be aggressive but can be disappointed.  In the eurozone, the preliminary PMI may confirm a modest, even if uneven recovery. 

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Saab withdraws from Swiss fighter jet test flights

2019-06-15

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2019-06-15

Saab’s Gripen E fighter jet will not participate in tests this month in Switzerland, the Swedish company said on Thursday. This follows a recommendation by the Swiss defence procurement agency (armasuisse). “The Gripen E development plan does not match the Swiss plan to perform flight tests with aircraft that are operationally ready in 2019,” Saab said in a statement.

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Dimmed Hopes In China Cars, Too

2019-06-15

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2019-06-15

China Total Car Sales, 2013-2019
As noted earlier this week, the world’s two big hopes for the global economy in the second half are pinned on the US labor market continuing to exert its purported strength and Chinese authorities stimulating out of every possible (monetary) opening. Incoming data, however, continues to point to the fallacies embedded within each.

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FX Daily, June 14: Waning Risk Appetite Going into the Weekend

2019-06-14

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2019-06-14

Overview:  Worries about an escalation in the Gulf following US accusations that Iran was behind yesterday's two attacks and weaker growth impulses, while trade tensions remain high, are dampening risk appetites ahead of the weekend.  Equities are lower.  Nearly all the stock markets in the Asia Pacific region fell today with Japan and Australia being the notable exceptions.

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A Stock Market Crash Scenario

2019-06-14

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2019-06-14

A Stock Market Crash Scenario
Herds get spooked and run. That's the crash scenario in a nutshell. We have all been trained by a decade of central bank saves to expect any stock market swoon will soon be reversed by central bank sweet talk and/or rate cuts. 

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Pound to Swiss Franc forecast: Brexit limbo hurting Sterling

2019-06-14

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2019-06-14

Political uncertainty & Brexit cause sterling weakness. The pound’s value is being predominantly dictated by Brexit. Over the past month sterling has gradually declined in value against the Swiss franc. There is potential for further falls for the pound due to the lack of clarity surrounding Brexit and the leadership battle for the new Conservative leader.

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Bund yields-Heading further down?

2019-06-14

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2019-06-14

Our central forecast is for Bund yields to rise (feebly) into positive territory by the end of this year, although risks are tilting to the downside.Four main factors have been driving down the 10-year Bund yield, which reached an all-time low of -0.26% on June 7. Considering changing circumstances, we have lowered our year-end target for the 10-year Bund yield from 0.3% to 0.1% and expect it to remain in negative territory until at least October...

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FX Daily, June 13: Financial Statecraft or Whack-a-Mole

2019-06-13

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2019-06-13

Overview: After roiling the markets by threatening escalating tariffs on Mexico, US President Trump has threatened China that if Xi does not meet him and return to the positions that the US claims it had previously, he will through on imposing tariffs to the remaining goods the US buys from China that have not already been penalized. 

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Swiss government predicts moderate economic growth in 2019

2019-06-13

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2019-06-13

The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) is expecting the Swiss economy to grow by +1.2% in 2019, it said on Thursday. It revised its economic forecast upwards slightly from +1.1% in March, following 0.6% growth in the first quarter thanks to vigorous domestic demand.

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Monetary policy assessment of 13 June 2019

2019-06-13

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2019-06-13

SNB Switzerland Conditional Inflation Forecast
The Swiss National Bank is maintaining its expansionary monetary policy, thereby stabilising price developments and supporting economic activity. Interest on sight deposits at the SNB is unchanged at –0.75%. The SNB will remain active in the foreign exchange market as necessary, while taking the overall currency situation into consideration.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in May 2019: -0.8 percent YoY, unchanged MoM

2019-06-13

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2019-06-13

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, May 2019
13.06.2019 - The Producer and Import Price Index remained unchanged in May 2019 compared with the previous month. The index stood at 102.2 points (December 2015 = 100). Petroleum products in particular saw higher prices, while chemical and pharmaceutical products became cheaper. Compared with May 2018, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 0.8%.

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