Tag Archive: Japan Household Spending

FX Daily, November 8: Risk Appetites Satiated Ahead of the Weekend

The capital markets are consolidating the recent moves ahead of the weekend. Equities are paring this week's gains, though the Nikkei, which was closed on Monday, extended its advance for the fourth consecutive session. Despite the profit-taking today, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the fifth week. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is snapping a five-day rally, but it is closing in on the fifth consecutive weekly advance.

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FX Daily, August 6: Markets Stabilize with Help of CNY Fix in Muted Turnaround Tuesday

Overview: The escalation of the economic conflict between the world's two largest economies is dominating the capital markets.  The US cited China as a currency manipulator after the North American markets closed, ensuring the troubled start to Asian trading after the US equities and yields plummeted on Monday.  The VIX surged to 25%, doubling in the past week.

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FX Daily, June 7: Jobs Data and Tariffs Dominate

Overview:  Global equities continue to recover from the recent slide.  Chinese and Hong Kong markets were on holiday today, but the MSCI Asia Pacific Index eked out a minor gain and ensured that its four-week slide ended.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up about 0.7% through the European morning. 

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Insight Japan

As I wrote yesterday, “In the West, consumer prices overall are pushed around by oil. In the East, by food.” In neither case is inflation buoyed by “money printing.” Central banks both West and East are doing things, of course, but none of them amount to increasing the effective supply of money. Failure of inflation, more so economy, the predictable cost.

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Economics Is Easy When You Don’t Have To Try

The real question is why no one says anything. They can continue to make these grossly untrue, often contradictory statements without fear of having to explain themselves. Don’t even think about repercussions. Even in front of politicians ostensibly being there on behalf of the public, pedigree still matters more than results.

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FX Daily, March 09: Today is about Jobs, but Not Really

The US Administration has softened its initial hardline position of no exemptions for the new steel and aluminum tariffs. There is little doubt that the actions will be challenged at the World Trade Organization and the idea that national security includes the protection of jobs for trade purposes will be tested. At the same time, US President Trump has agreed to meet North Korea's Kim Jong Un.

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FX Daily, March 02: Markets Unanchored?

The announcement of the US intention to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum on national security grounds has sent ripples through the capital markets. Yet there is certainly more going on here than that. The tariffs, justification, and magnitude have indicated and expected. After reversing lower on Tuesday and selling off on Wednesday, equity investors hardly needed a fresh reason to sell on Thursday.

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FX Daily, January 30: Dollar and Bonds Stabilize; Equities not Yet

The US dollar is paring yesterday's gains, and the 10-year Treasury yield has slipped back below the 2.70% level after pushing 2.73% briefly. European bonds have also eased, with yields one-two basis points lower. It is thus far a mild Turn Around Tuesday but suggests that the market psychology that has driven the dollar lower and yields higher persistently since mid-December have not been broken.

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FX Daily, December 01: Dollar Consolidates Weekly Gain, while Equities Ease to Start New Month

The release of the manufacturing PMIs confirm that the synchronized global expansion remains intact. The focus today is on three unresolved political challenges: US tax reform, the UK-Irish border and the talks that may produce another grand coalition in Germany. The US dollar is mixed, with the dollar-bloc currencies and Scandis pushing higher.

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FX Daily, October 31: Month-End Leaves Market at Crossroads

Global equity markets are closing another strong month. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed on the day, but up 4.3% in October, the 10th consecutive monthly advance. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is also flattish today, but up 1.6% on the month. It is the second monthly advance after a June-August swoon. The benchmark is closing in on the high for the year set in May.

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Japan Is Booming, Except It’s Not

Japan is hot, really hot. Stocks are up to level not seen since 1996 (Nikkei 225). Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called snap elections in Parliament to secure a supermajority and it worked. Things seem to be sparkling all over the place, with the arrow pointing up: “Hopes for a global economic recovery and US shares’ strength are making fund managers generous on Japanese stocks,” said Chihiro Ohta, general manager of investment research at SMBC Nikko...

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FX Daily, September 29: Dollar’s Gains Pared, but Set to Snap Six Month Losing Streak Against the Euro

Supported by a sharp rise in interest rates and ideas of tax reform, the US dollar is closing one of its best months of the year. The Dollar Index is snapping a six-month decline, and the euro's monthly advance since February is ending. This month, the US 10-year yield has risen 18 bp, and the two-year yield has risen 13 bp. It is the biggest increase since last November.

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FX Daily, August 29: Dollar Losses Accelerate After North Korea Sends Missile over Japan

A brief period of quiet, which some may have confused with a change in posture, North Korea followed up the weekend's test of three ballistic missiles with what appears to have been an intermediate missile that flew over Japan. South Korea responded with its own symbolic display of force by dropping bombs by the DMZ.

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FX Daily, July 28: Dollar and Equities Closing Week on Heavy Note

The US dollar is mostly lower, though one of the features of recent days has been the dramatic slide of the Swiss franc, and that is continuing today. The franc is off another 0.5% today, to bring its weekly loss to a sharp 2.5%. The euro finished last week near CHF1.1030 and is now near CHF1.1370; its highest level since the cap was lifted in mid-January 2015.

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FX Daily, June 30: Greenback Stabilizes

The US dollar has been battered this week amid a shift in sentiment seen in how the market responded to comments mostly emanating from the ECB's annual conference. It is not really clear that Draghi or Carney gave new policy indications.

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FX Daily, May 30: Mixed Dollar as Market Awaits Preliminary EMU CPI and US Jobs

With the backdrop of US interest rates unable to get much traction, despite the strong probability of another Fed rate hike in a couple of weeks, the third since last November election, the US dollar mixed today. The chief story today, though, is not the greenback but the euro. The euro is trading heavily for the fourth session.

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FX Daily, April 28: Markets Limp into Month End

Equity markets are stalling into the end of the month. MSCI Asia-Pacific Index is snapping a six-day advance, and the week's gain was sufficient to extend the advancing streak for the fourth consecutive month. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is trading off for the second consecutive session, after rallying for six consecutive sessions.

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Systemic Depression Is A Clear Choice

Looking back on late 2015, it is perfectly clear that policymakers had no idea what was going on. It’s always easy, of course, to reflect on such things with the benefit of hindsight, but even contemporarily it was somewhat shocking how complacent they had become as a global group.

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FX Daily, March 31: Greenback Finishing Weak Quarter in Mixed Fashion

The US dollar fell against all the major currencies in the first three months of 2017. The weakness initially seemed to be a correction to the rally, which began before the US election last year. The dollar recovered in February, in anticipation of a hawkish Fed in March.

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