Tag Archive: India

The Greenback Bounces Back

Overview: After modest US equity gains yesterday, the weaker yen and Beijing’s approval of 60 new video games helped lift most of the large markets in the Asia Pacific region.

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Synchronizing Chinese Prices (and consequences)

It isn’t just the vast difference between Chinese consumer prices and those in the US or Europe, China’s CPI has been categorically distinct from China’s PPI, too. That distance hints at the real problem which the whole is just now beginning to confront, having been lulled into an inflationary illusion made up from all these things.

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Fed Day

Overview: The markets are mostly treading water ahead of the FOMC decision later today. Tech stocks tumbled in Hong Kong and the Hang Seng fell a little more than 1%, while India was the worst performer in the region falling over 2% following an unexpected and intra-meeting hike by the Reserve Bank of India.

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So Much Fragile *Cannot* Be Random Deflationary Coincidences

At first glance, or first exposure to this, there doesn’t seem to be any reason why all these so many pieces could be related. Outwardly, from the mainstream perspective, anyway, you’d think them random, and even if somehow correlated they’re supposed to be in the opposite way from what’s happened.

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Markets Calmer, Awaiting Fresh Incentives

Overview:  The capital markets are calmer today, and the fear that was evident at the end of last week remains mostly scar tissue. Led by gains in Japan, China, Australia, New Zealand, and India, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index extended yesterday's gains.  Europe's Stoxx and US futures are firm.  The US 10-year yield is softer, around 1.43%, while European yields are mostly 1-2 bp lower.  The Norwegian krone and euro lead major currencies higher...

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FX Daily, June 04: US and Canada Report on Jobs as G7 Fin Mins Talk Taxes

Stronger than expected US employment data, ahead of today's monthly report and compromise proposal on corporate tax by the White House to help secure a deal on infrastructure sent US bond yields and the dollar high. Late dollar shorts were forced to cover.

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FX Daily, April 26: Big Week Begins Quietly, with the Greenback Still Under Pressure

Overview: What promises to be a notable week has begun off quietly: the US, EMU, and South Korea report Q1 GDP.   The eurozone also provides its first estimate of April inflation.  Corporate earnings feature tech and financial firms.  Equities are mostly firmer in the Asia Pacific region and Europe.

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FX Daily, February 05: Position Squaring Weighs on the Dollar Ahead of the Jobs Report

Overview:  While equities continue to march higher, the dollar is softer amid position squaring ahead of the US jobs data.  Gold has stabilized after yesterday's shellacking.  Estimates for US nonfarm payrolls appear to have been creeping higher, encouraged by the ADP, PMI, and weekly initial jobless claims.

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FX Daily, August 06: Markets Consolidate

The Australian dollar powered to marginal news highs for the year as the move against the US dollar continued yesterday. The euro stopped a few hundredths of a cent below the high seen at the end of last week. However, neither sustained the upside momentum and have come back offered today.

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FX Daily, July 28: Dollar Bounces, Gold Slips, while Equities Hold Their Own

The main development in the capital markets today is the firmer dollar against nearly all the major and emerging market currencies.  Among the majors, the New Zealand dollar and Swedish krona are the heaviest (~-0.4%), while the Swiss franc and yen are marginally lower.

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FX Daily, June 24: Risk Appetites Satiated for the Moment

Overview: The rally in risk assets in North America yesterday is failing to carry over into today's activity. Asia Pacific equities were mixed. Korea and Indonesia led the advances with more than 1% gain. China and Taiwan also gained. Japan and Hong Kong. Europe's Dow Jone's Stoxx 600 is giving back yesterday's gains (~1.3%) plus some and US stocks are heavy.

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FX Daily, June 17: Correction Phase does not Appear Over

Overview:  Investors have not yet completely shaken off the angst that saw equities slide last week.  All equity markets in the Asia Pacific region, but Japan, edged higher today, including China, India, and South Korea, where political/military tensions are elevated.  Europe followed suit, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is firm near yesterday's highs. It has entered but not yet filled the gap created by the sharply lower opening on June 11.

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FX Daily, June 2: Greenback’s Slide Continues

Overview: Liquidity trumps everything else.  US equities shrugged off the national guard being called into action in nearly a third of US states, and the S&P 500 closed yesterday at nearly three-month highs. Asia Pacific markets followed suit.  Most markets in the region rose by more than 1%. The notable exceptions were Australia and China, where benchmarks rose by 0.2%-0.3%. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up more than 1% in the European morning.

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FX Daily, May 22: US-China Escalation Sinks Hong Kong and Hits Risk Appetites

Overview: The US has ratcheted up pressure on China on several fronts and has sapped risk appetites ahead of the weekend.  Equity markets are lower across the world.  Even in India, where the central bank unexpectedly cut the repo rate 40 bp, shares fell 0.7%.  It was Hong Kong's 5.5% that led the region lower.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off around 1% in late morning turnover to pare this week's gain to about 2.5%. 

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FX Daily, April 27: Equities Rally and the Dollar Eases to Start the Week

Overview: Global equities are beginning the new week on an upbeat note.  All the markets in the Asia Pacific region rallied, led by more than 2% gains in the Nikkei and Taiwan.  European bourses are higher.  All the industry groups are participating and financials and consumer discretionary leading the way. 

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An International Puppet Show

It’s actually pretty easy to see why the IMF is in a hurry to secure more resources. I’m not talking about potential bailout candidates banging down the doors; that’s already happened. The fund itself is doing two contradictory things simultaneously: telling the world, repeatedly, that it has a highly encouraging $1 trillion in bailout capacity at the same time it goes begging to vastly increase that amount.

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(No) Dollars And (No) Sense: Eighty Argentinas

India like many emerging market countries around the world holds an enormous stockpile of foreign exchange reserves. According to the latest weekly calculation published by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the country’s central bank, that total was a bit less than half a trillion. While it sounds impressive, when the month began the balance was much closer to that mark.

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FX Daily, March 27: Nervousness Ahead of the Weekend

Overview: Officials appear to have persuaded investors that they have put into place measures that will cushion the economic blow and ensure that the financial system continues to function. After seemingly goading officials into action, investors are choosing not to resist. Moreover, there is a recognition that many programs are scalable.

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FX Daily, February 6: Stocks Push Higher but more Cautious Tone may be Emerging

Overview:  The bullish enthusiasm that carried the S&P 500 to new closing highs yesterday is helping Asia Pacific and European shares today.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the third session with Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Korea jumping two percent.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 gapped to new record highs before stabilizing in mid-morning turnover.  US shares are mostly firmer. 

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