Tag Archive: Gold

How Modern Monetary Policy Changed CHF from Gold-Backed to a USD and Euro-Backed Currency

Gold-backed CHF vs. EUR USD backed
we slowly move into an inflationary environment and prices of German Bunds and US Treasuries are falling.... ECB and Fed interest rates seem to be nailed to zero for years.

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Pictet Become “Secular Dollar Bulls” and Gold Bashers: Our Response

2013-06-01

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2013-06-01

  Precisely at the moment when the dollar undergoes a secular bashing with a 6% loss against the yen and 3% against the euro, Pictet publish their “secular dollar bull era” video and recommend investors to avoid gold. “Secular movements” in currency markets are mostly driven by current account (CA) surpluses or deficits, while housing …

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EUR/CHF to 1.25?

2013-04-22

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2013-04-22

brent vs. gasoline april 2013
Chinese economy is weaker, the Brent oil price under 100$ , the German DAX near 7500, the USD/JPY near 100, the Australian dollar is dipping. Most assets that are positively correlated to CHF are weaker. Time for EUR/CHF to rise?

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“SNB Concerned”: Does a Yes to the Swiss Gold Referendum Imply an End of the CHF Cap?

Ratio Gold to Balance Sheet SNB
If the upcoming referendum "Save our Swiss gold" wins, the SNB must increase gold holdings from 10% to 20% of its balance sheet. Gold purchases and/or sales of fiat money implies an end of CHF cap.

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Seasonal Factors on Gold, the 19 February Short Trade

Gold came under pressure in early February when stock market strength but also U.S. gas prices rose. US purchases, however, help to improve foreign economies and therefore also the gold price.

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The “Get Stress in May and Relax in October Effect” for the SNB

Sell in May, Come back in October
The U.S. economy regularly improves between October and March. The SNB should use the moment to sell some currency reserves. From May on, the typical seasonal effects will push the SNB into a defense.

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SNB Profit 6 Billion CHF over the Year, 10.9 Billion Loss in Q4/2012

2013-01-17

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2013-01-17

snb q4/2012 income from gold
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) obtained a profit of around 6 billion francs for the year 2012 (full statement).  The profit was reduced from 16.9 billion francs between Q1 and Q3 2012, which means that in Q4/2012 the bank had a loss of around 10.9 billion francs. The profit in gold fell from 6.2 billion …

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Gold Tells the History of the 20th Century

Gold value and tons per country reserves US Canada Japan Swiss Netherland UK Russia France Italy


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15 Years of Bubbles, Busts and Failed Monetary Policy

the stock market and dot com bubble


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Quantitative Easing, Gold and the Swiss Franc

2012-12-27

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2012-12-27

Quantitative Easing Mechanisms
The main drivers of demand for Swiss francs are the euro crisis, but even more, the behavior of American investors, who go out of the dollar in the fear of further bad US economic data and of Quantitative Easing. This will push down the dollar, and safe-havens like the CHF, gold or the Japanese Yen up. … Continue reading »

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Gold, CHF, Brent Arbitrage Trading after Negative CS, UBS Interest Rates

2012-12-01

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2012-12-01

gold price usd/chf 1972 2012
  Credit Suisse and UBS will charge negative interests for cash clearing clients above a threshold. Last year such news was worth 250 bps, on December 3 only 28 bips. One remembers August 26, 2011, when UBS only spoke of negative interests and consequently EUR/CHF rose from 1.1420 to 1.1688. At the time FX traders …

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Seasonal Factors on Oil

spot crude by month subsamples
Evidence from simple tests supports perhaps some belief that crude oil tends to have strong and weak months of the year, Q4 is often the weakest quarter and Q1 and Q2 the best.

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SNB Results Q3 2012: SNB Radically Reduces Euro Share from 60% to 48%

2012-11-02

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2012-11-02

snb q3 breakdown in currencies usd eur gbp
SNB Q3 Profits: 10 billion francs   The Swiss National Bank (SNB) radically reduced its euro share, in the third quarter from 60% to 48%, and bought US dollars and sterling instead. In the second quarter, however, it increased the euro share from 51% to 60% and concentrated on buying euros. Given that the EUR/USD was … Continue reading...

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IMF Data: SNB Forex Reserves and Gold in September 2012

2012-10-12

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2012-10-12

This link  on the SNB website shows the data the central bank provides to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It shows the SNB Forex and gold reserves in the last month. It is so-called “IMF Special Data Dissemination Standard (SNB Data)” It is released together with the international investment position, some monetary aggregates and the balance of payments two weeks after …

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Marc Faber: Assets are overpriced, we short metals and Brent now

2012-10-11

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2012-10-11

Gold 2003-2012
As we predicted on October 5 or one day later on DailyFX, metals have started their descent, silver lost one dollar, from levels around 35$ last week to 34$ now. Marc Faber joins our view and says that asset prices are quite vulnerable. “I’m not 100% in cash, for the simple reason that I could … Continue reading »

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Isn’t it wonderful to trade with a strong central bank behind you?

2012-09-13

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2012-09-13

DOCU payout UBS
  Isn’t it wonderful to have a strong central bank like the SNB sitting behind you when trading Forex? Losses are limited to the floor of 1.20 and in the meantime you can gain forward swaps with the higher euro zone interest rates. Today the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided in its monetary policy assessment …

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SNB prints nearly 5 billion francs in one week, FX traders poised to get ripped off

2012-09-10

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2012-09-10

monetary expansion snb
  As we expected in our post “What’s this crazy movement in EUR/CHF ? SNB Floor Hike ?“, long-time investors, global macro funds and US investment banks are moving into gold and the Swiss franc again.  The SNB had to buy euros and print new Swiss francs of around 5 billion francs last week, as … Continue reading »

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What’s this crazy movement in EUR/CHF ? SNB Floor Hike ?

2012-09-10

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2012-09-10

  On Friday there was a big movement in the EUR/CHF. First it went up to 1.2154,  fell later down to 1.2080 in the main American trading and rose again to 1.21 in the low-volume trading time. We repeat our entry from Friday, because we continuously updated the post after new developments, e.g. after the … Continue reading »

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