Tag Archive: federal-reserve

FX Daily, June 18: Markets Quiet Ahead of Triple Witching

2021-06-18

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2021-06-18

After some dramatic moves over in the immediate post-Fed period, the markets have quieted. The kind of volatility that is sometimes associated with triple witching expirations in the US may have already taken place. Asia Pacific equities were mixed, but the MSCI benchmark finished with its second consecutive weekly decline. 

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FX Daily, June 17: Fed Rocks the World

2021-06-17

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2021-06-17

A more hawkish than expected Federal Reserve sent the US dollar and interest rates higher and spurred an equity sell-off. The knock-on effect sent ripples through the capital markets today. Most equity markets in the Asia Pacific region fell. China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan were notable exceptions.

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FX Daily, June 03: Don’t Believe Sino-American Thaw or Fed’s Corporate Bond Divestment is a Policy Signal

2021-06-03

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2021-06-03

Market participants appear to be biding their time ahead of tomorrow's US jobs report as they digest recent developments. The dollar is firmer, equities are mixed, and benchmark bond yields are a little firmer. China and Hong Kong shares continue their recent underperformance, while most of the large markets in the Asia Pacific region edged higher.

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FX Daily, June 02: The Dollar Snaps Back

2021-06-02

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2021-06-02

The US dollar is enjoying broad, even if not large, gains today following yesterday's recovery from three-year lows against sterling and four-year lows against the Canadian dollar. The greenback is firmer against all the major currencies.

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FX Daily, May 26: RBNZ Joins the Queue, while Yuan’s Advance Continues

2021-05-26

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2021-05-26

The decline in US rates and the doves at the ECB pushing back against the need to reduce bond purchases next month have seen European bond yields unwind most of this month's gain. The inability of US shares to hold on to early gains yesterday did not deter the Asia Pacific and European equities from trading higher.

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FX Daily, May 20: Market Stabilize after Yesterday’s Tumultuous Session

2021-05-20

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2021-05-20

US equity indices finished lower, but the real story was their recovery. Asia Pacific equities were mixed, with Australia's 1.5% rally leading the recovery in some markets, including Tokyo and Singapore. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up a little more than 0.5% near mid-session, led by information technology and industrials, while energy and financials lagged with small gains.

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FX Daily, May 18: Risk Appetites Return Bigly

2021-05-18

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2021-05-18

In Asia, equities markets rallied strongly, led by the more than 5% gain in Taiwan, the most in over a year as Monday's 3% drop was more than overcome. The Nikkei gained more than 2% despite the deeper than expected contraction in Q1 GDP. Hong Kong, South Korea, and India also rose more than a 1% gain as tech came roaring back.

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FX Daily, May 10: The Dollar Remains on the Defensive

2021-05-10

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2021-05-10

Last week's cyberattack on the largest US gasoline pipeline continues to lift oil and gasoline prices. The June gasoline futures gapped higher to extend last week's 2.4% gain but has subsequently moved lower to enter the gap. 

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The Dollar and the Fed

2021-05-08

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2021-05-08

One of the stark developments since the initial shock of the pandemic has been the aggressiveness of the US monetary and fiscal response. This was also true in dealing with the Great Financial Crisis. The divergence then and now had shaped the investment climate.

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FX Daily, April 29: US GDP: The V

2021-04-29

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2021-04-29

Overview:  The market's initial reaction to the Federal Reserve statement and the press conference was that it was dovish: the 10-year yield slipped, and the dollar was sold to new lows.  In fact, the two countries that appear to be ahead of the curve among high-income countries, Canada and Norway, saw their currencies rally to new three-year highs.

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FX Daily, April 28: Biden and Powell are Center Stage

2021-04-28

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2021-04-28

Overview: It appears that the backing up of US yields is giving the dollar a better tone and challenging the Eurosystem, which has stepped up its bond purchases.  The US 10-year yield is around 1.65%, roughly a two-week high and back above the 20-day moving average. 

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FX Daily, April 12: Capital Markets Look for Direction

2021-04-12

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2021-04-12

Overview: Risk appetites have not returned from the weekend.  Equities are heavy, and bond yields softer.  The dollar is drifting lower in Europe.  China's unusually candid admission of the shortcomings of its vaccine and record new cases in India saw all the equity markets in the region fall.  Only South Korea and Taiwan escaped the carnage that saw the Indian market tumble 3.5%. 

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Rechecking On Bill And His Newfound Followers

2021-04-09

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2021-04-09

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury has obtained some bids. Not long ago the certain harbinger of bond rout doom, the long end maybe has joined the rest of the world in its global pause if somewhat later than it had begun elsewhere (including, importantly, its own TIPS real yield backyard).

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FX Daily, March 18: Dovish Fed but Yields Rise, Helping the Greenback Recover from Yesterday’s Slide

2021-03-18

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2021-03-18

Overview: Asia Pacific equities mostly advanced after the US benchmarks recovered following the dovish FOMC. Australia, New Zealand, and India did not participate in today's gains. European bourses edged higher, but US shares are struggling, and the NASDAQ futures are off nearly 1%, threatening to end the three-day rally. 

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Spending Here, Production There, and What Autos Have To Do With It

2021-03-17

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2021-03-17

US Retail Sales, 2016-2021
While the global inflation picture remains fixed at firmly normal (as in, disinflationary), US retail sales by contrast have been highly abnormal. You’d think given that, the consumer price part of the economic equation would, well, equate eventually price-wise.

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FX Daily, March 4: OPEC+ and Powell are Awaited

2021-03-04

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2021-03-04

Overview:  Equities are under pressure following yesterday's sharp losses in the US.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index suffered its biggest decline of the week today as Japanese, Chinese, and Hong Kong benchmarks slid by more than 2%.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index in Europe is buckling under the pressure and is posting its first decline of the week. 

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How High is Too High for Rising Government Bond Yields?

2021-02-27

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2021-02-27

The two day rise in the gold price of more than US$50 fizzled out on Tuesday. The gold price is down about 7% (in US dollar terms) since its year-to-date high set on January 6. It is also down 13% from its all-time high set in August 2020. The silver price, boosted by social media attention, did not set its year-to-date high until February 1.

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FX Daily, February 17: Follow-Through Dollar Buying after Yesterday’s Reversal Tests the Bears

2021-02-17

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2021-02-17

Overview:  After reversing higher yesterday, the US dollar sees follow-through gains today, leaving the euro around a cent lower from yesterday's highs. Sterling's surge is also being tempered. Most emerging market currencies are lower as well. 

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FX Daily, January 12: Markets Catch Collective Breath

2021-01-12

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2021-01-12

Overview:  The capital markets were stabilizing today after dramatic moves yesterday. Equity markets are recovering, and the dollar is paring yesterday's gains.  Most equity markets in the Asia Pacific region rose, though Taiwan, South Korea, and Australia were notable exceptions. 

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Consumers, Too; (Un)Confident To Re-engage

2020-12-19

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2020-12-19

Friedman's Plucking Model of Trend-Cycle Analysis
There is a lot of evidence which shows some basis for expectations-based monetary policy. Much of what becomes a recession or worse is due to the psychological impacts upon businesses (who invest and hire) as well as workers being consumers (who earn and then spend).

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