Tag Archive: EUR/CHF

Great Graphic: Euro-Swiss Shows Elevated Systemic Risk

2018-05-23

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2018-05-23

The Swiss National Bank's decision in January 2015 to remove the cap on the Swiss franc (floor on the euro) that it has set at CHF1.20 is seared into the memory of a generation of foreign exchange participants. It is not exactly clear where the euro bottomed in the frenzied activity that followed the SNB's surprise move. Bloomberg records the euro's low near CHF0.8520.

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FX Daily, May 18: EUR/CHF Continues the Collapse

2018-05-18

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2018-05-18

The US dollar is mostly firmer. US yields have stabilized. Asian equities were mostly higher, while European bourses are struggling. Oil prices are steady. There have been a number of sustained trends in the markets that we have been monitoring. The euro, for example, has fallen each day this week. It recorded its low for the year on Wednesday near $1.1765.

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FX Daily, May 17: US Rates Edge Higher, while Dollar Turns Mixed

2018-05-17

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2018-05-17

The Britsh pound was a cent from yesterday's lows on a press report that claimed the UK cabinet had agreed on seeking to stay in the customs union with the EU beyond the two-year transition period. The report suggested that the UK wanted to still negotiate other trade deals, which would seem to be a Trojan Horse.

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FX Daily, May 16: US Yields Soften After Yesterday’s Surge

2018-05-16

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2018-05-16

The US dollar is mixed today after the Dollar Index rose to new 2018 highs yesterday.  It is being driven by rising US rates, which also punishes short dollar positions. The US 10-year yield rose seven basis points yesterday to nearly 3.10%.  It is consolidating near 3.06% now.  Many see the yield rising toward 3.20%, which would match the mid-2011 high.

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FX Daily, May 15: Firm US Rates Underpin Greenback

2018-05-15

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2018-05-15

US 10-year rates are again probing the air above 3%, and this is encouraging a push back toward JPY110, with the euro slipping toward $1.19.  Asian equities fell, with the MSCI Asia Pacific shedding 0.8%, the most in nearly a month, snapping a three-day advance. China and India were able to buck the regional move. China's economic data was mostly softer than expected and is consistent with a gradual turn in the cycle as the Lunar New effect fades.

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FX Daily, May 14: US Dollar Slips in Quiet Turnover

2018-05-14

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2018-05-14

The US dollar is sporting a softer profile against most of the major and emerging market currencies to start the new week. It already seemed to be tiring in the second half of last week. With today's mild losses, Dollar Index is off for a fourth consecutive session, the longest losing streak in over a month. The US and China appear to have taken measure to diffuse the trade tensions between the world's two largest economies.

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FX Daily, May 11: Dollar Momentum Sapped, Near-Term Pullback Likely

2018-05-11

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2018-05-11

The US dollar pulled back following yesterday's slightly softer than expected CPI report and this likely marks the beginning of a new phase, with the dollar moving lower. Investors have learned over the past two weeks that neither wages nor consumer prices are accelerating. There is little reason in the recent string of data or official comments to suggest a more hawkish path for monetary policy (e.g., four rate hikes this year).

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FX Daily, May 10: Kiwi Tumbles on Dovish RBNZ, While Sterling Goes Nowhere Ahead of BOE

2018-05-10

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2018-05-10

The US dollar is consolidating in narrow trading against most of the major currencies as participants digest several developments ahead of what was expected to be the highlight today, the BOE meeting and US April CPI. The greenback's consolidation is giving it a heavier bias against most of the major currencies. The recently strong upside momentum has stalled, but the losses are modest and the euro and sterling are inside yesterday's ranges.

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FX Daily, May 09: Oil Prices Surge and Dollar Gains Extended Post Withdrawal Announcement

2018-05-09

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2018-05-09

The US dollar is broadly higher as the 10-year yield probes above 3.0%. Disappointing French industrial production and manufacturing data for March provided additional incentive, as if it were needed, to extend the euro's losses. The euro dipped below $1.1825. The single currency is off a cent this week after falling nearly two last week. A 38.2% retracement of the euro's gains since the beginning of last year is found a little above $1.1700 and...

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FX Daily, May 08: Dollar Races Ahead

2018-05-08

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2018-05-08

The US dollar's surge continues. The Dollar Index is testing the space above 93.00. A month ago it was below 90. It does not appear to require fresh developments. The market continues to trade as if there are short dollar positions that are trapped at higher levels and the briefest and shallow pullbacks are new opportunities to adjust positions.

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FX Daily, May 07: Greenback Starts Week on Firm Note

2018-05-07

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2018-05-07

The US dollar recovered from a softer tone in early Asia and is higher against nearly all the major and emerging market currencies as North American market prepare to start the new week. The news stream is light and investors remain on edge geopolitical concerns remain elevated. Oil prices are extending gains, and WTI is above $70 a barrel for the first time since November 2014. Alongside an inverse yield curve, a jump in oil prices typically...

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FX Daily, May 04: US Jobs-Not the Driver it Once Was

2018-05-04

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2018-05-04

The US dollar fell last month in response to the disappointing non-farm payroll report. However, in general, the jobs report is not the market mover that it was in the past. With unemployment is at cyclical lows of 4.1% and poised to fall further. Weekly jobless claims and continuing claims at or near lows in a generation, though over qualification is more difficult than previously.

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FX Daily, May 03: Respite to Dollar Short Squeeze

2018-05-03

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2018-05-03

The Australian dollar is higher for a second session. It has been helped today by stronger than expected data in the form of a larger than expected March trade surplus (A$1.57 bln vs. expectations for A$865 mln) and building permits up more than twice as expected (2.6% vs. 1.0%). Today is the first session since April 19 that the Australian dollar has risen above the previous day's high. Initial resistance is seen near $0.7550 and then $0.7580.

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FX Daily, May 02: Confident Fed Key to New Found Respect for the Dollar

2018-05-02

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2018-05-02

There is a brief respite in the powerful short squeeze that has fueled the dollar's dramatic recovery. The greenback which was nearly friendless a month ago now has many suitors. It is higher on the year against all the major currencies but the yen (~2.6%), the Norwegian krone (~1.6%) and sterling ~0.9%). It is virtually flat against the euro.

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FX Daily, May 01: Little Help on May Day

2018-05-01

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2018-05-01

Most of the world's financial centers are closed for the May Day holiday, but the lack of participation has not prevented the extension of the US dollar's recovery. The Dollar Index has traded above its 200-day moving average for the first time in a year.

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FX Daily, April 30: Merger Monday

2018-04-30

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2018-04-30

Three large corporate deals were announced. T-Mobile appears to have finally figured a way to secure Sprint. It is a $26.5 bln equity tie-up. Marathon Petroleum is reportedly taking Andeavor for $20 bln in cash and stock. Sainsbury is reportedly in advanced talks to buy Walmart's Asda chain for GBP7.3 bln (~$10 bln) in an equity and cash transaction.

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FX Daily, April 27: Dollar Puts Finishing Touches on Best Week Since November 2016

2018-04-27

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2018-04-27

The US dollar's recent gains have been extended, and it is having one of its best weeks since November 2016. The Dollar Index is up 1.7% for the week, as US session is about to start. Though it took this week's gains to change market's narrative, the fact of the matter, as we have pointed out is that April is the third consecutive month in which the Dollar Index fell in only one week. That translates into rising 10 of the past 13 weeks.

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FX Daily, April 26: Euro Remains Soft Ahead of Draghi

2018-04-26

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2018-04-26

The euro made a marginal new low early in European turnover and held barely above the spike low on March 1 to $1.2155. So far, today is the first session since January 11 that the euro has not traded above $1.22. The euro stabilized as the European morning progressed, but there seems to be little real buying interest it ahead of Draghi's press conference following the ECB decision.

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FX Daily, April 25: Dollar Regains Luster, but Consolidation Likely Ahead of Key Events and Data

2018-04-25

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2018-04-25

The US dollar reversed lower yesterday after US yields softened and equities tumbled. However, the greenback has bounced back, and has extended its gains against the major currencies except the euro and sterling. The on-the-run and generic US 10-year yields are edging above 3%.

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FX Daily, April 24: Stalled US Rates Steal Greenback’s Thunder

2018-04-24

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2018-04-24

The US dollar looked set to launch a new leg higher, but rates stalled, which in turn is unleashing some mild corrective pressures. The US two-year yield has been unable to extend its increase beyond 2.50%, while the 10-year rate has stalled within a whisker of the 3% psychological threshold. The greenback's momentum did indeed carry it, but by late morning on the Continent, a consolidative tone was evident.

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