Tag Archive: Dow Jones Industrial Average

Here We Go Again: Our Double-Bubble Economy

2018-06-17

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2018-06-17

S&P/Case-Shiller 2000-2018
The bubbles in assets are supported by the invisible bubble in greed, euphoria and credulity. Well, folks, here we go again: we have a double-bubble economy in housing and stocks, and a third difficult-to-chart bubble in greed, euphoria and credulity.

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What Kind of Stock Market Purge Is This?

2018-02-17

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2018-02-17

US Treasury Yield Index and Total Assets of Federal Banks, Mar 2015 - Feb 2018
Down markets, like up markets, are both dazzling and delightful. The shock and awe of near back-to-back 1,000 point Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) free-falls is indeed spectacular. There are many reasons to revel in it. Today we shall share a few. To begin, losing money in a multi-day stock market dump is no fun at all. We’d rather get our teeth drilled by a dentist. Still, a rapid selloff has many positive qualities.

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Punch-Drunk Investors & Extinct Bears, Part 1

2018-01-17

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2018-01-17

Sentiment Data
We didn’t really plan on writing about investor sentiment again so soon, but last week a few articles in the financial press caught our eye and after reviewing the data, we thought it would be a good idea to post a brief update. When positioning and sentiment reach levels that were never seen before after the market has gone through a blow-off move for more than a year, it may well be that it means something for once.

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The Donald Can’t Stop It

2017-10-15

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2017-10-15

Margin Adjusted Cape, 1928 - 2016
The Dow’s march onward and upward toward 30,000 continues without a pause. New all-time highs are notched practically every day. Despite Thursday’s 31-point pullback, the Dow is up over 15.5 percent year-to-date. What a remarkable time to be alive. President Donald Trump is pumped! As Commander in Chief, he believes he possesses divine powers. He can will the stock market higher – and he knows it.

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L’impact de la délocalisation de la production sur la balance commerciale US.

2017-08-18

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2017-08-18

Industry Week Power of using Made in USA in marketing
Dans la série sur la balance des paiements et les zooms sur les balances commerciales, voici l’évolution de la balance commerciale américaine. Nous voyons clairement qu’elle était neutralisée à 0 durant l’ère où les devises du monde devaient être arrimées, selon les Accords de Bretton Woods, au dollar qui lui-même était partiellement couvert par l’or.

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Adventures in Quantitative Tightening

2017-07-18

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2017-07-18

Dow Jones Industrial Average, 1929
All remaining doubts concerning the place the U.S. economy and its tangled web of international credits and debts is headed were clarified this week. On Monday, Mark Yusko, CIO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, told CNBC that:

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The Fed Will Blink

2017-05-02

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2017-05-02

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, Daily, Sep 2016 - May 2017
GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – The Dow rose 174 points on Thursday. And Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said we’d have a new tax system by the end of the year. Animal spirits were restless. But which animals? Dumb oxes? Or wily foxes? Probably both.

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Central Banks Have a $13 Trillion Problem

2017-04-24

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2017-04-24

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, September 2016 - May 2017
GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – The Dow was down 118 points on Wednesday. It should have been down a lot more. Of course, markets know more than we do. And maybe this market knows something that makes sense of these high prices. What we see are reasons to sell, not reasons to buy.

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Regime Change: The Effect of Trump’s Victory on Stock Prices

2017-01-13

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2017-01-13

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, Daily
On January 20 2017 Donald Trump will be sworn in as the new president of the United States. On the stock market his victory has triggered a lot of advance cheer already: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by a sizable 7.80 percent between the election and the turn of the year.

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L’argent des banques centrales finit dans les paradis fiscaux!

2016-10-24

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2016-10-24

Nous savions que la crise avait laminé les finances des Etats, de l’économie publique et des familles. Jusque là rien de nouveau. Mais en finance, quand quelqu’un perd, il y a en général quelqu’un d’autre qui gagne la même somme et peut-être plus. A moins qu’il ne s’agisse de billets physiques que l’on flambe, c’est comme ça.Nous allons donc nous intéresser aux grands gagnants de la crise financière.

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Cash Bans and the Next Crisis

2016-09-15

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2016-09-15

Kenneth Rogoff
Money sometimes goes “full politics”. Take poor Kenneth Rogoff at Harvard. He wants a dollar with a voter registration card, a U.S. flag on its windshield, and a handgun in its belt – the kind of money that supports the Establishment and votes for Hillary.

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Negative Rates and The War On Cash, Part 1: “There Is Nowhere To Go But Down”

2016-09-04

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2016-09-04

As momentum builds in the developing deflationary spiral, we are seeing increasingly desperate measures to keep the global credit ponzi scheme from its inevitable conclusion. Credit bubbles are dynamic — they must grow continually or implode — hence they require ever more money to be lent into existence.

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A Fully Automated Stock Market Blow-Off?

2016-07-25

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2016-07-25

About one month ago we read that risk parity and volatility targeting funds had record exposure to US equities. It seems unlikely that this has changed – what is likely though is that the exposure of CTAs has in the meantime increased as well, as the recent breakout in the SPX and the Dow Jones Industrial Average to new highs should be delivering the required technical signals.

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Janet Yellen’s $200-Trillion Debt Problem

2016-06-21

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2016-06-21

More than $10 trillion of government bonds now trade at negative yields. And another $10 trillion or so worth of U.S. stocks trade well above their long-term average valuations. And there’s more than $200 trillion of debt in the world. All of this sits on the Fed’s financial applecart. Does Janet Yellen dare upset it?

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A Darwin Award for Capital Allocation

2016-06-10

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2016-06-10

  Beyond Human Capacity Distilling down and projecting out the economy’s limitless spectrum of interrelationships is near impossible to do with any regular accuracy.  The inputs are too vast.  The relationships are too erratic.   The economy – comple...

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