Tag Archive: debt

The “Beautiful” De-Leveraging

2012-09-23

A beautiful deleveraging balances the three options. In other words, there is a certain amount of austerity, there is a certain amount of debt restructuring, and there is a certain amount of printing of money. When done in the right mix, it isn’t dramatic. It doesn’t produce too much deflation or too much depression. There is slow growth, but it is positive slow growth. At the same time, ratios of debt-to-incomes go down. That’s a beautiful...

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Can The SNB Make Profit On Currency Reserves ?

2012-09-19

by George Dorgan

2012-09-19

Abstract We determine the main criteria with which markets evaluate currency prices. We focus on explaining the differences between the carry trade era (or like Ben Barnanke called it “The Great Moderation”) and the period after the financial crisis. Our research shows that each one of the following three main preconditions must be fulfilled, …

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All roads lead to a euro zone break-up

2012-08-10

by Alex Gloy

2012-08-10

2 solutions for euro zone will work acceptable for Germany

For us all roads lead to a euro zone break-up and multiple sovereign defaults. Our reasoning can be summarized as follows: Equities are worthless when associated debt becomes encumbered (risk capital takes the first loss). Equity is not an asset; it is merely the remainder that is left over once debt is subtracted from …

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Guest Post: Six Reasons Why Italy May Exit the Euro Before Spain; Ultimate Occupy Movement

2012-07-24

by George Dorgan

2012-07-24

Six Reasons Why Italy May Exit Before Spain 1) Rise of the Five Star Movement 2) 44% of Italians view the euro negatively, only 30% favorably. That is biggest negative spread in the eurozone. In Spain more view the euro positively than negative, albeit by a small 4 percentage point spread.

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Wolfgang Münchau, FT: Merkel was the winner of the Euro summit

2012-07-02

by George Dorgan

2012-07-02

Wolfgang Münchau endorsed many of our arguments Wolfgang Münchau, Financial Times, has endorsed many of our arguments of our Friday's opinion about the Euro summit where we stated that there was nothing really new. Münchau even claims that "The real victor in Brussels was Merkel."

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Can Merkel stop the Eurobonds ? German “Der Focus” on Eurobonds

2012-06-24

by George Dorgan

2012-06-24

The German "Der Focus",one of the most successful weekly magazines, titles "Can Merkel stop the Eurobonds ?" Der Focus claims that Eurobonds have the following issues:

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Italy: About the Hypocrisy of Politicians and the Blindness of the English-Speaking Financial Papers

2012-05-19

by George Dorgan

2012-05-19

Debt Servicing Costs Italy vs. GDP change

Just a little wrap-up of two tweets read in 5 minutes, to which I finally added a bit more out of my recent Tweets. One Tweet: The British finance minister Osborne has emphasized that the euro zone needs to protect its peripheral economies. “The whole of Europe needs to become more competitive and productive. That …

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JP Morgan: Reflections on negative interest rates in Switzerland

chf appreciated despite, snb abopts fx target nominal real

Negative interest rates naturally attract attention given Switzerland’s use of these between 1972-1978.

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Credit Crisis Could Lift Yen, Franc (July 2008)

2008-07-31

by George Dorgan

2008-07-31

Jul. 31st 2008 Extracts from the history of the Swiss franc (July 2008). As the credit crisis has unfolded, the Dollar has remained (relatively) strong, especially considering the deteriorating state of its economy. The reason for this, of course, is that in times of crisis, investors flock to perceived safe havens, such as the …

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