Tag Archive: current account

May Japan face a weak yen and high bond yields?

2012-12-07

Like often in global economic downturns, the demand for Japanese cars and electronics has fallen in Q3, especially due to European purchasers. Additionally fueled by a row with China, the current account has become negative. Is Japan doomed because the yen will fall and bond yields will rise?

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Unicredit: Both Italy and Britain Should Play in the Southern Euro League, Germany in the Northern

2012-12-04

by George Dorgan

2012-12-04

The must read "Italy is a better bond bet than Britain" on the Financial Times. Unicredit CEO Nielsen implicitly confirms our latest post on global and European imbalances that can be solved only with a Northern...

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Who’s the Next Downgrade Domino to Fall?…The UK?

2012-11-21

by George Dorgan

2012-11-21

Who Downgrades France MUST downgrade the UK, too After Moody’s downgraded France, we are waiting the next major sovereign to suffer the same fate. According to the must-read interactive graph on the BBC, France now has a medium risk of default, but the UK is still in risk status “low”. According to the BBC, each citizen …

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Who Has Got the Problem? Europe or Japan?

2012-10-23

by George Dorgan

2012-10-23

A couple of months ago the euro traded close to EUR/USD 1.20 and the whole world was betting on its breakdown. Once the euro downtrend ended thanks to QE3, OMT and euro zone current account surpluses, the common currency did not stop to appreciate against the yen and reached levels of EUR/JPY 104 and above. … Continue reading...

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Is China’s Growth Rate Healthy Now? Golden Rule of Capital

Fixed Investments as part GDP different countries

After a slowing in Chinese growth this year, economists recently stated that a hard landing has been avoided and that the economy might have bottomed out. Marc Faber has changed his mind and considers buying Chinese stocks. Also Sprach Analyst provides the following data: Sequential growth rates since Q1 through Q3 were 1.5%, 2.0% and 2.2% respectively, or in annualised annual rate, 6.16%, 8.24%, and 9.09% respectively. Compared that with the...

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Strange movement in EUR/CHF in Asia session, a possible explanation

2012-10-09

by George Dorgan

2012-10-09

Strange movement in the EUR/CHF in the Asian session today The Asian session was a risk-on session, it recovered some of yesterday’s losses. After yesterday’s rather good HSBC services PMI, Shanghai Composite was up today by 1.97%. Therefore safe-havens like the yen and the Swissie were under pressure. At first, some Forex traders …

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Standard and Poor’s critique of the Swiss National Bank, part 1

2012-09-26

by George Dorgan

2012-09-26

Part 1: Swiss investments abroad [This paper includes some of the S&P critique, but also aims to clarify some of S&P’s misleading points] Last Thursday Thomas Moser, a member of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) governing council, said that one of the main reasons for the strong franc is the conversion of Swiss foreign incomes …

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Can The SNB Make Profit On Currency Reserves ?

2012-09-19

by George Dorgan

2012-09-19

Abstract We determine the main criteria with which markets evaluate currency prices. We focus on explaining the differences between the carry trade era (or like Ben Barnanke called it “The Great Moderation”) and the period after the financial crisis. Our research shows that each one of the following three main preconditions must be fulfilled, …

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The Big Swiss Faustian Bargain: Differences between SNB, ECB and Fed Money Printing Explained

2012-09-03

by George Dorgan

2012-09-03

In this post we show that the risks the Fed, the ECB and the Bundesbank incur are far smaller than the one the Swiss SNB takes. The Fed has “just” an inflation risk, that could cost 200 billion US$, 1.2% of US GDP. The ECB and Bundesbank have the risk that the euro zone splits … Continue reading »

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Why the euro has recovered? or are Markit PMI really reliable?

2012-08-23

by George Dorgan

2012-08-23

Here a follow-up of our contribution on Seeking Alpha written on August 15th, with the title “Are Markit PMIs really reliable?“. We recommended to go long the euro and the Swiss franc against the US dollar and sterling, because the Markit PMIs were not in line with trade balance data. Previously we suggested in … Continue...

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Full text Spanish banks bailout: Memorandum of Understanding

2012-07-20

by George Dorgan

2012-07-20

Here the full text of the European’ Commission’s Memorandum of Understanding with Spain regarding the bailout of the Spanish banking sector released earlier today. Memorandum of Understanding on Financial-Sector Policy Conditionally

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The End of Swiss and Japanese Deflation

2012-07-12

by George Dorgan

2012-07-12

At a time of speculations about global deflation, we show an interesting and very different aspect. Our CPI and wage data comparison among different developed countries, shows that Switzerland and Japan will see both inflation, whereas other countries like Australia will see disinflation.

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Why the Euro Crisis may last another 15 years

2012-03-25

by George Dorgan

2012-03-25

home prices ireland, spain, uk, france, usa, germany, switzerland 1990-2008

Abstract In the following article we will explain which types of crisis occur in the euro area and will argue that this crisis will last at least another fifteen years. (1) Competitiveness crisis: Before the euro introduction peripheral countries regularly saw their currency depreciate against the German Mark and helped them to increase their competitiveness. …

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Swiss Franc in Spotlight (January 2009)

2009-01-29

by George Dorgan

2009-01-29

Jan. 29th 2009 Extracts from the history of the Swiss franc (January 2009). The Swiss Franc is in the same boat as the US Dollar and Japanese Yen, benefiting from an increase in risk aversion and an unwinding of carry trade positions. In other words, the currency rising on the back of the sound monetary … Continue reading...

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