Tag Archive: Commitments of Traders

Buy Gold, Silver Time After Speculators Reduce Longs and Banks Reduce Shorts

2017-12-17

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2017-12-17

Concentration of Traders in the CFTC COTs
Gold and silver COT suggests bottoming and price rally coming. Speculators cut way back on long positions and added to short bets. Commercials/banks significantly reduced short positions. Commercial net short position saw biggest one-week decline in COMEX history. ‘Big 4’ commercial traders decreased their short positions by 28,800 contracts. Seasonally, January is generally a good month to own gold (see table). "If history is still reliable,...

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Bottom-Picking Sterling, Swiss Franc Even More Net Short

2016-10-29

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2016-10-29

weekly
Speculators increased their Short Swiss Francs to Net 18K contracts. While they started to bottom-pick Sterling. Not everyone is convinced that sterling will bounce.  The bears extended their gross short sterling position by 3.4k contracts to 147.6k.  On the eve of the UK referendum, the gross short position was around 94k contracts.   Again speculators, both bulls and bears have rapidly expanded their exposure in recent weeks.  In the most...

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Net Short CHF Position is Increasing

2016-10-23

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2016-10-23

1022-commitment-of-traders
The net short Swiss Franc position against the dollar has risen to the levels seen before the breakdown of the EUR/CHF floor. It has increased from short 9.4 K contracts to 16.4 K contracts. In the last week, speculators raised their short positions by 15% for both the euro and CHF. Euro longs against USD were up slightly, while CHF longs were reduced.

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Weekly Speculative Positions: More Bearish Euros and CHF, Less Bullish the Yen

2016-10-16

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2016-10-16

Speculators turned more bearish the euro and Swiss Franc and less bullish the Japanese yen in the Commitment of Traders week ending October 11.  

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Swiss Franc Net Shorts Getting Reduced

2016-10-08

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2016-10-08

Last week SNB Q3 window cleaning that led to a big CHF net short position. This week this changed again. Both longs and shorts on CHF increased, but the net short position fell.

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Speculators Closing their CHF Longs

2016-10-01

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2016-10-01

  Marc Chandler speaks of the volatility of the CHF speculative positioning. For us this was window dressing by the SNB that wants to improve the quarterly results. Traders react to the strong market movement caused by the SNB and they close their long CHF positions. If it was really the SNB, we will see on Monday

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Speculators continue reducing Euro shorts

2016-09-17

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2016-09-17

Speculators are reducing their net short Euro positions, since Draghi's comments on inflation. Apparently not only against the dollar but also against the Swiss Franc. This also means that the euro zone may be target real money (like purchases of stocks, real estate and bonds) instead of Switzerland.

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Rising Swiss Franc Longs

2016-09-03

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2016-09-03

Speculative activity remained light in the latest CFTC reporting period ending August 30. There were no gross position adjustments that we recognize as significant; 10k contracts or more. There were only three gross adjustments by speculators of more than 4k contracts. With the higher EUR/CHF FX rate and weaker U.S. jobs date, speculators went long CHF by 8.2K contracts.

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Weeky Speculative Positions: Euro Shorts Trimmed, More Sterling Shorts, Long CHF again

2016-08-27

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2016-08-27

Three weeks ago speculators went net short in CHF, when the U.S. jobs report was published. Now the net position shifted to long again. Last week GBP shorts increased but Euro Shorts were reduced.

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Speculators Make Small Bets in FX, but Bears Run for Cover in Treasuries and Oil

2016-08-20

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2016-08-20

Summer doldrums continue to depress speculative activity in the currency futures market.  In the CFTC Commitment of Traders reporting week ending August 16 speculators made small adjustments to gross currency positions.  There was only one change more than 6k contracts. Continue reading »

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Switch to Small Net Long CHF

2016-08-14

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2016-08-14

Speculators shifted to a 0.1 long Swiss Franc position in the week of August 9. Speculators reduced their exposure on Euro, CHF and Peso, increased it for NZD, CAD and GBP.

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Weekly Speculative Postions: Speculators Sell European Currency Futures

2016-07-30

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2016-07-30

The euro bears added another 10.3k contracts to their gross short position, which brought it to 221.8k contracts., This is this is the largest grossshort position since early January.

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Weekly Speculation Positions: Bullish on Dollar and Dollar-Bloc

2016-07-23

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2016-07-23

Speculators made several significant position adjustments in the CFTC reporting period ending 19 July. They are more Bullish on Dollar and on the Dollar-Bloc currencies.

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Speculative Sentiment Shifts

2016-07-16

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2016-07-16

The combination of a robust US jobs report, speculation of bolder action by Japan, the possibility that the ECB drops the capital key to overcome the ostensible shortage of some core bonds (e.g. German bunds), and the anticipation of easier BOE policy appears to have generated a change in sentiment among speculators in the currency futures market.

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Speculators Still Don’t Believe in the Greenback

2016-07-09

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2016-07-09

Commitments of Traders July 05 Speculative Positions
Speculators reduced their Net long CHF position (against USD) from 10.9K contracts to 8.7K contracts. In five of the eight currency futures, we track, speculators covered their gross short exposure and added to their gross long exposure.

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Weekly speculative Positions: Bulls and Bears Saw Speculative Opportunity in Euros

2016-07-02

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2016-07-02

In the sessions before and after the UK referendum speculators in the currency futures did three things. First, they generally reduced exposure. This means gross longs and short positions were reduced. CHF long positions increased to 10K Speculators were divided about what to do with the euro.

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Speculators Cut Currency Exposure ahead of FOMC, BOJ, and Brexit

2016-06-25

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2016-06-25

The CFTC reporting week ending June 21 covers the day FOMC and BOJ meetings and ends two days before the UK referendum. The overarching theme was the reduction of exposure. This is not measured by net positions but by gross positions. Of the eight currencies we track, six saw a reduction of gross long positions and a six saw a reduction in the gross short positions.

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Weekly Speculative Postion: After Jo Cox Speculators Bought Sterling Futures with Both Hands

2016-06-18

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2016-06-18

In the days ahead of the murder of Jo Cox, a UK member of parliament, apparently for her support for remaining in the EU, speculators in the futures market scooped up sterling. While last week, speculators took long dollar positions against CHF, this barometer shifted this week towards long CHF.

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Weekly Speculative Positions after Uneventful ECB and Surprisingly Weak US Jobs

2016-06-11

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2016-06-11

Price action shows a increase of the Swiss franc after the bad US payrolls report. Commitments of traders, however, indicate a move to a short CHF position of 9600 x 100k contracts against the dollar. We must separate speculative CHF positions from inflows into CHF cash, CHF stocks, bonds and real-estate, what we call "real financial flows". These will be revealed on Monday, with the SNB release of sight deposits, the counter-position of real...

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Little Adjustment ahead of ECB and US Jobs

2016-06-04

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2016-06-04

The Swiss Franc net position was reduced from 4.0 contracts long to 0.1 thousand contracts long. Apart from the yen., other speculative position barely changed. We are keen on next week's data that should reflect the dismal US jobs report.

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