Tag Archive: China

Global Warm-Ongering: What Happens If Trump Takes US Out Of Paris Agreement?

2016-12-10

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2016-12-10

Global Emissions
For all the shock, horror, and aghast of global warm-ongers, comes a startling revelation: It’s Irrelevant if US Pulls Out of Paris Accord. Donald Trump has sent his clearest message yet about his plans for reshaping US policy on global warming by choosing a chief environmental regulator who has questioned the science of climate change.

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Gold In London And Hong Kong Is Used To Settle COMEX Futures

2016-12-08

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2016-12-08

Exhibit 1.
Physical gold located in Hong Kong and London is used to settle COMEX gold futures contracts through “Exchange For Physical” trading in the over-the-counter market. This post is a sequel to Understanding GOFO And The Gold Wholesale Market and COMEX Gold Futures Can Be Settled Directly With Eligible Inventory - in which Exchange For Physical (EFP) trading is explained and how it can increase or decrease open interest at the COMEX.

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Net National Savings Rate, the Best Alternative Indicator to GDP Growth

For us the Net National Savings Rate is the best alternative indictator to GDP growth. It is positively correlated with the change in wealth, with the establishment of future productive capacity, the price of government bonds and currency valuations. But today GDP growth is often negatively correlated to the Net Savings Rate. Hence GDP is often a less useful measure.

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Q1 – Q3 2016 China Net Gold Import Hits 905 Tonnes

2016-11-28

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2016-11-28

Shanghai Gold Exchange SGE Withdrawals September 2016
Withdrawals from the vaults of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, which can be used as a proxy for Chinese wholesale gold demand, reached 1,406 tonnes in the first three quarters of 2016. Supply that went through the central bourse consisted of at least 905 tonnes imported gold, roughly 335 tonnes of domestic mine output, and 166 tonnes in scrap supply and other flows recycled through the exchange.

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Global Wealth Update: 0.7 percent Of Adults Control $116.6 Trillion In Wealth

2016-11-23

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2016-11-23

Global Wealth Pyramid
Today Credit Suisse released its latest annual global wealth report, which traditionally lays out what is perhaps the biggest reason for the recent "anti-establishment" revulsion: an unprecedented concentration of wealth among a handful of people, as shown in its infamous global wealth pyramid, an arrangement which as observed by the "shocking" political backlash of the past few months suggests that the lower 'levels' of the pyramid are...

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If TPP is Dead…

2016-11-20

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2016-11-20

Tpp
TPP may be dead, but China is spearheading an alternative regional free trade deal. It is not as ambitious as the US-led TPP. China and Russia are eager to re-establish spheres of influence.

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You’ll Only Understand Trump and Brexit If You Understand the Failure of Globalization

2016-11-18

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2016-11-18

Brexit-Trump
You can only understand the victory of Donald Trump and Brexit once you understand the failure of globalization… Trump made rejection of globalization a centerpiece of his campaign. In his July 21st acceptance speech as the Republican nominee, he said: Americanism, not globalism, will be our credo.

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FX Daily, November 16: The Greenback Remains Resilient

2016-11-16

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2016-11-16

FX Performance, November 16 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar remains bid. It is at its year high against the euro and five-month highs against the Japanese yen. Sterling, which has performed better recently, remains in the trough around 30-year lows. It surge since the election reflects three considerations. The first is December Fed hike. Prior to the election, the market was assessing around a two-thirds chance. Now both the CME and Bloomberg's WIRP estimate the odds above 90%....

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Toward a New World Order?

2016-11-11

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2016-11-11

A Brave New World is coming? Perhaps. We had a recent discussion with a group of people in the hopeless business of doing long term forecasting. This made us think about what the world will look like over the next 20 to 40 years. A pretty thankless task, but the bottom line is without a damn good war, Asia will be the way of the future.

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China Update

2016-11-10

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2016-11-10

China
The evolving political situation in China is worth monitoring. China's trade surplus with the US has fallen this year. It has been roughly 20 years since China was formally labeled a currency manipulator. Trump has indicated he would do so.

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Cashless Society – Is The War On Cash Set To Benefit Gold?

2016-10-26

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2016-10-26

Cash is the new “barbarous relic” according to many central banks, regulators, and some economists and there is a strong, concerted push for the ‘cashless society’. Developments in recent days and weeks have highlighted the risks posed by the war on cash and the cashless society.

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Yuan Not

2016-10-25

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2016-10-25

There were two dogs that did not bark this year. There are the Japanese yen, which despite negative interest rates and an unprecedented expansion of the central bank's balance sheet, the yen has strengthened 15% against the dollar. The yen has been the strongest major currency, and the third strongest currency in the world behind the high-yielding Brazilian real, recovering from last year's drop, and the Russian rouble, aided by a rebound in oil.

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The Great Physical Gold Supply & Demand Illusion

2016-10-21

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2016-10-21

Numerous consultancy firms around the world, for example Thomson Reuters GFMS, Metals Focus, the World Gold Council and CPM Group, provide physical gold supply and demand statistics, accompanied by an analysis of these statistics in relation to the price of gold. As part of their analysis the firms present supply and demand balances that show how much gold is sold and bought globally, subdivided in several categories. It’s widely assumed these...

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FX Daily, October 19: FX After China GDP

2016-10-19

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2016-10-19

FX Performance, October 19 2016 Movers and Shakers
The Swiss Franc has strengthened against the pound as global uncertainty persists in the form of the UK’s Brexit vote and the US Presidential Election. Looking ahead it seems the CHF may soften a little as we learn of the new President, I found it very interesting that yesterday Paddy Power paid out on any bets for Hilary Clinton to become President in the United States.

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FX Daily, October 14: Firm Dollar Consolidating, Awaiting US Retail Sales

2016-10-14

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2016-10-14

FX Performance, October 14 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar is firm against most of the major currencies, but within yesterday's ranges, which seems somewhat fitting amid the light new stream. The high-yielding Australian and New Zealand dollars are resisting the stronger greenback, while on the week the Aussie and the Canadian dollar are the only majors to gain.

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Great Graphic: China’s PPI and Commodities

2016-10-14

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2016-10-14

China Producer Price Inflation
China's PPI rose for the first time in four years. It is related to the rise in commodities. Yet there are good reasons there is not a perfect fit between China's PPI and commodity prices. US and UK CPI to be reported next week, risk is on the upside.

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FX Daily, October 13: Dollar Edges Higher, though US Rates Soften

2016-10-13

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2016-10-13

FX Performance, October 13 2016 Movers and Shakers
The EUR/CHF remains in the range of 1.0815 to 1.0980. The SNB usually intervenes below 1.0850. I am expecting that speculators are reducing their CHF short positions. More tomorrow.

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Why Krugman, Roubini, Rogoff And Buffett Hate Gold

2016-10-10

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2016-10-10

A couple of weeks ago an article appeared on Bitcoin Magazine entitled ‘Some economists really hate bitcoin’. I read it with a sigh of nostalgia. As someone who has been writing about gold for a few years, I am used to reading similar criticisms as those bitcoin receives from mainstream economists, about gold.

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Will The ECB Buy Stocks?

2016-10-05

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2016-10-05

Debate about the ECB’s stimulus options have continued to rage, with an equity purchase plan mentioned as a possibility. We think the ECB could legally buy ETFs that fit its requirements… but it would be controversial and we question the benefits. An ETF programme could total EUR 200bn, which would not be large compared to the overall QE programme.

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Is The US Dollar Set To Soar?

2016-10-03

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2016-10-03

Hating the U.S. dollar offers the same rewards as hating a dominant sports team: it feels righteous to root for the underdogs, but it's generally unwise to let that enthusiasm become the basis of one's bets. Personally, I favor the emergence of non-state reserve currencies, for example, blockchain crypto-currencies or precious-metal-backed private currencies--currencies which can't be devalued by self-serving central banks or the private elites...

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