Tag Archive: China Trade Balance
The balance of trade, commercial balance, or net exports (sometimes symbolized as NX), is the difference between the monetary value of a nation’s exports and imports over a certain period. Sometimes a distinction is made between a balance of trade for goods versus one for services. If a country exports a greater value than it imports, it is called a trade surplus, positive balance, or a “favourable balance”, and conversely, if a country imports a greater value than it exports, it is called a trade deficit, negative balance, “unfavorable balance”, or, informally, a “trade gap”.
FX Daily, June 8: Monday Blues: Consolidation Threatened
Overview: The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for a sixth consecutive session. Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, and Indonesian markets advanced more than 1%. European bourses are mixed, with the peripheral shares doing better than the core, leaving the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 about 0.5% lower near midday after surging 2.5% ahead the weekend. US shares are firm, as is the 10-year yields, hovering near 92 bp.
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FX Daily, May 7: China Reports an Unexpected Jump in Exports, While Norway Surprises with a Rate Cut
Overview: There is a sense of indecision in the air today. There have been several developments, but investors seem mostly reluctant to extend positions. China reported a surge in exports in April and an increase in the value of reserves. Australia reported a rise in exports in March. The Bank of England left policy steady, but clearly signaled it was prepared to boost its asset purchases.
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FX Daily, February 7: Dollar Rides High as Eurozone Disappoints, and Caution Sets In
Overview: A more cautious tone is evident today in the markets, which seem to have run well ahead of macro developments and evidence that the new coronavirus is not yet contained. After a roughly 3.5% advance in the past three sessions, the MSCI Asia Pacific index pulled back with nearly the markets in the region slipping.
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FX Daily, January 14: China was a Currency Manipulator for a Few Months
Overview: The leaked US decision to lift the currency manipulator designation on China was the latest fodder fueling the new record highs in the S&P 500. The risk-taking appetite helped extend the rally in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index for the fourth consecutive session. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is little changed and trying to snap a two-day decline.
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FX Daily, November 8: Risk Appetites Satiated Ahead of the Weekend
The capital markets are consolidating the recent moves ahead of the weekend. Equities are paring this week's gains, though the Nikkei, which was closed on Monday, extended its advance for the fourth consecutive session. Despite the profit-taking today, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the fifth week. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is snapping a five-day rally, but it is closing in on the fifth consecutive weekly advance.
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FX Daily, October 14: Optimism Took the Weekend Off
Overview: Japanese and Canadian markets are on holiday today. While the US bond market is closed, equities maintain their regular hours today. Asia Pacific equities rallied, led by 1% of more gains in China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Thailand. The buying did not continue in Europe, and after a 2.3% rally before the weekend, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is about 0.75% lower in the European morning.
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FX Daily, July 12: Greenback Limps into the Weekend
Overview: Higher than expected US CPI and the second tepid reception to a US bond auction this week pushed US yields higher and helped stall the equity momentum. Asia Pacific yields, especially in Australia and New Zealand jumped 8-10 bp in response, and Spanish and Portuguese bonds bore the burden in Europe.
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FX Daily, June 10: Collective Sigh of Relief Lifts Equities, Yields, and the Dollar
Overview: A global sigh of relief that the US will not tariff all its imports from Mexico. Equities are all higher, and the weekend demonstrations in Hong Kong over a bill allowing extraditions to the mainland for the first time did not deter investors from bidding up the Hang Seng over 2.3%, the most this year. European equities are following suit.
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FX Daily, May 08: Markets Trying to Stabilize
Overview: It is taking investors a bit more than two sessions to find its footing after being the unexpected end of the tariff truce between the US and China struck last December. Asia Pacific equities tumbled after the S&P 500 shed nearly 1.7% yesterday, the third largest decline in 2019, but Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is consolidating near yesterday's lows.
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FX Daily, August 08: Sterling Can’t Get Out of Its Own Way, While Dollar and Yen Catch a Bid
Fears that the UK could leave the EU in a little over six months without an agreement continues to drag sterling lower. Recall that over the weekend, the UK's International Trade Minister Fox suggested there was a 60% chance of a no-deal Brexit.
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Dollar and Yen Rise Amid Heightened Anxiety
With what promises to be an acrimonious G7 meeting, from which the isolated US President will depart early, and a broadening pressure in emerging markets, the US dollar turned better bid late yesterday and is recovering further today.
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FX Daily, May 08: Dollar Races Ahead
The US dollar's surge continues. The Dollar Index is testing the space above 93.00. A month ago it was below 90. It does not appear to require fresh developments. The market continues to trade as if there are short dollar positions that are trapped at higher levels and the briefest and shallow pullbacks are new opportunities to adjust positions.
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FX Daily, April 13: Markets Struggle to Find Footing while News Stream Improves
It had looked to many investors that world was headed for a trade war and an escalating risk war in Syria. But now it seems less clear. US President Trump's rhetoric on trade took a more constructive tone, and a divided Administration leaves Syria in a bit of a limbo. US equities rallied yesterday, and Asia and European bourses are advancing today, but the conviction may not be particularly strong.
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FX Daily, March 08: Euro Slips Ahead of the ECB Meeting
Expectations that the European Central Bank would change its forward guidance in a substantive way had been one of the factors behind the euro's appreciation. However, more recently, the anticipation has slackened. The last meeting took place around the same time that many perceived US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin as having abandoned the strong dollar policy.
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FX Daily, February 08: Dollar Firms, While Equities Search for Stability
The swings in the equity markets are subsiding, bond yields are firm and the US dollar is extending its recovery. Although US equities closed lower, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-day drop by posting a 0.25% gain. However, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is off nearly as much, though the range was modest. European markets are also lower, and the range for the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is the smallest in more than a week.
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FX Daily, January 12: Euro Jumps Higher
There is one main story today and it is the euro's surge. The euro began the week consolidating it recent gains a heavier bias, but the record of last month's ECB meeting surprised the market with its seeming willingness to change the forward guidance early this year in a more hawkish direction. This spurred a 0.7% gain in the euro back above $1.20. The euro stayed bid in Asia, but took another leg up (~0.75%) in response to reports that a...
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FX Daily, December 08: Brexit Talks Move to Stage II, While Greenback Remains Firm
Sufficient progress will be judged to have been made, and negotiations of the separation between the UK and EU will be allowed to enter the second stage. The formal decision will be made at next week's EU summit. To be sure, "sufficient progress," which the diplomatic-speak that does not mean that any agreement has really been reached, but rather that the UK has made a few concessionary signals.
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FX Daily, October 13: Sterling Extends Yesterday’s Recovery; US Data Awaited
The EU's leading negotiator whipsawed sterling yesterday. The net effect was to ease fears that the UK would leave the EU without the agreement Initial concerns that the negotiations had stalled sent sterling to nearly $1.3120. The willingness to discuss a two-year transition period spurred sterling's recovery. After trading on both sides of Wednesdays, it closed on its highs was a bullish technical signal and there has been follow-through buying...
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FX Daily, September 08: US Dollar Tracks Yields Lower
The US dollar has been unable to find any traction as US yields continue to move lower. The US 10-year year is slipping below 2.03% in European turnover, the lowest level in ten months. The risk, as we have noted, is that without prospects of stronger growth and inflation impulses, the yield returns to where was before the US election (~1.85%). The two-year note yield, anchored more by Fed policy than the long-end, is also soft. It yielded 1.25%...
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FX Daily, August 08: Trade Featured as Dollar Drifts Lower
The US dollar has a slightly lower bias today, but the against most of the major currencies, it is consolidating within the range set at the end of last week. The main exceptions are sterling and the Canadian dollar. They had extended their pre-weekend losses yesterday, and are trading within yesterday's range today.
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