Tag Archive: Canada Participation Rate

The participation rate is an important indicator of the supply of labor. It measures the share of the working-age population either working or looking for work. The number of people who are no longer actively searching for work would not be included in the participation rate.

Jump in Hourly Earnings is Key to US Jobs, while Canada adds 40k Full-Time Positions

2018-09-07

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2018-09-07

The 201k rise in US non-farm payrolls edged above the median forecasts, but the 50k downward revision to the past two-months removes the gloss.   It is the first August report in seven years that the initial estimate was above the Bloomberg median.  The most important part of the report was the 0.4% jump in hourly earnings, lifting the year-over-year rate to a new cyclical high of 2.9%.

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US Jobs Data Optics Disappoint, but Signal Unchanged

2018-04-10

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2018-04-10

The US jobs growth slowed in March more than expected, but the details of the report suggest investors and policymakers will look through it. The poor weather seemed to have played a role. Construction jobs fell (15k) for the first time since last July, and the hours worked by production employees and non-supervisory worker slipped.

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Headline US Jobs Disappoint, but Earnings as Expected

2018-01-05

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2018-01-05

The headline US non-farm payrolls disappointed, rising by 148k instead of the consensus of 180k-200k. However, the other details were largely as expected and are unlikely to change views about the trajectory of Fed policy or the general direction of markets. It is a very much steady as she goes story.

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FX Daily, November 03: Dollar Firms Ahead of What is Expected to Be Strong US Jobs Data

2017-11-03

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2017-11-03

The US dollar is firm but is not going anywhere quickly. The lack of fresh interest rate support and uncertainty over the US tax proposals, which the Brady, the Chair of the House Ways and Means Committee hopes to have a revised version out after the weekend so the committee work can begin on Monday.

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US Storm-Skewed Report Means Nothing about Anything

2017-10-07

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2017-10-07

US interest rates and the dollar rose in response to the data. It was firm before the report. The US Dollar Index is up for a fourth consecutive week. It is the longest streak since Q1. US 10-year yields are near 2.40%, an area that has blocked stronger gains for nearly six months.

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FX Daily, September 08: US Dollar Tracks Yields Lower

2017-09-08

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2017-09-08

The US dollar has been unable to find any traction as US yields continue to move lower. The US 10-year year is slipping below 2.03% in European turnover, the lowest level in ten months. The risk, as we have noted, is that without prospects of stronger growth and inflation impulses, the yield returns to where was before the US election (~1.85%). The two-year note yield, anchored more by Fed policy than the long-end,  is also soft. It yielded 1.25%...

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Constructive US Jobs, but Where Do the Euro Bulls make a Stand?

2017-08-04

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2017-08-04

The US created 209k jobs in July and jobs growth in June was revised higher (+9k) to 231k. The underemployment rate was unchanged at 8.6%. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%, matching the cyclical low set in May. This is all the more impressive because the participation rate also ticked up (62.9% from 62.8%).

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FX Daily, July 07: Taper Tantrum 2.0 Dominates

2017-07-07

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2017-07-07

Taper Tantrum 2.0, emanating from Europe rather than the United States continues to overshadow other developments. Yesterday, the yield on the 10-year German Bund pushed through the 50 bp mark that has capped the occasional rise in yields in recent months. The record of the ECB meeting was understood as indicating that the official assessment had surpassed the actual communication in order try to minimize the impact.

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April Jobs Won’t Change Minds

2017-05-05

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2017-05-05

There is something for everyone in today's US jobs report, and at the end of the day, it is unlikely to sway opinion about the direction and timing of the next Fed move. The greenback itself may remain range bound after the initial flurry. On the other hand, the disappointing but noisy Canadian data underscores the risk of a more dovish slant to the central bank's neutral stance next week.

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FX Daily, May 05: Mixed Dollar Ahead of US Jobs Data and Fed Talk

2017-05-05

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2017-05-05

The US dollar is narrowing mixed as the employment data, and Fed speeches are awaited. Six Fed officials speak today, including Yellen and Fischer. Regional Presidents Williams, Rosengren Evans and Bullard also speak. It will be the first flurry of speeches since the FOMC meeting.

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US Jobs Growth Disappoints

2017-04-08

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2017-04-08

The US jobs growth slowed considerably more than expected in March and the disappointment pushed the dollar and equities initially lower. The US created 98k jobs in March, well below market expectations for around 175k jobs.  Adding insult to injury, revisions to the January and February data took off another 38k job.

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Solid US Jobs Report in line with Expectations

2017-03-10

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2017-03-10

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The US jobs report was largely in line with expectations. February was the second consecutive month that the US economy created more than 200k jobs. It is the first time since last June and July. The 235k is just below the revised January 238k gain (initially 227k).

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FX Daily, February 10: US Dollar Holding on to Week’s Gains

2017-02-10

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2017-02-10

The US dollar is about 12 hours away from gaining against all the major currencies this week. The main talking points today remain Trump-centric. The US dollar is mixed as European trading gets underway. Of note the dollar is continuing to gain on the yen. The yen is off 0.4%, which is nearly half the week's decline. The Aussie is the strongest on the day, up about 0.2% to trim the week's loss to about 0.45%.

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US Jobs Details Better than the Headline

2017-01-07

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2017-01-07

The dollar and US yields are recouping more of yesterday’s decline. A break of $1.0480-$1.05 would suggest the euro’s upside bounce is exhausted. A dollar move above JPY116.80-JPY117.25 would also hint that the greenback was going to make an other run toward JPY118.30-JPY118.60. Sterling support is seen in the $1.2285-$1.2310 area.

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Mixed Jobs Report, but Unlikely to Deter Expectations for Fed Hike

2016-12-02

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2016-12-02

The US dollar has slipped lower in response to the jobs data, but quickly recovered. The details are mixed, but is unlikely to change views on the outlook for Fed policy. The headline job creation was in line with expectations at 178k. Job growth of the back two months were shaved by 2k, concentrated in October. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.6%, the lowest since 2007.

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US and Canada Jobs: Sill Strong Enough for a Rate Hike

2016-10-07

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2016-10-07

The US grew 156k jobs in August, missing the median estimate by about 16k. The July series was revised up by 16k. The unemployment and participate rate ticked up 0.1% to 5.0% and 62.9% respectively. Hourly earnings rose 0.2% to lift the year-over-year rate to 2.6% from 2.4%. The average work week increased to 34.4 hours from 34.3.

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US Jobs Disappoint, Risk of Sept Hike Recedes, Dollar Falls

2016-09-03

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2016-09-03

U.S. Unemployment Rate
Underlying concerns about US labor market ease after two robust reports. Sept Fed views will not change much. Canada’s data is disappointing, BOC optimism may be challenged.

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US Jobs Surprise, Canada Disappoints

2016-08-06

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2016-08-06

Underlying concerns about US labor market ease after two robust reports. Sept Fed views will not change much. Canada’s data is disappointing, BOC optimism may be challenged.

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North American Jobs Report and Implications

2016-07-08

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2016-07-08

There is something for everyone in today's US jobs report, and at the end of the day, it is unlikely to sway opinion about the direction and timing of the next Fed move. The greenback itself may remain range bound after the initial flurry. On the other hand, the disappointing but noisy Canadian data underscores the risk of a more dovish slant to the central bank's neutral stance next week.

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US Growth Accelerates, Dollar Advances

2016-01-08

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2016-01-08

US grew nearly 300k jobs in December.  The October and November jobs growth were revised up by 50k.  The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0%, even though the participation rate ticked up. If there was  a disappointment it was that hourly earnings did not rise as much as expected.  The 2.5% year-over-year growth from 2.3% …

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