Tag Archive: Brexit

FX Daily, April 29: US GDP: The V

2021-04-29

by

2021-04-29

Overview:  The market's initial reaction to the Federal Reserve statement and the press conference was that it was dovish: the 10-year yield slipped, and the dollar was sold to new lows.  In fact, the two countries that appear to be ahead of the curve among high-income countries, Canada and Norway, saw their currencies rally to new three-year highs.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 4: OPEC+ and Powell are Awaited

2021-03-04

by

2021-03-04

Overview:  Equities are under pressure following yesterday's sharp losses in the US.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index suffered its biggest decline of the week today as Japanese, Chinese, and Hong Kong benchmarks slid by more than 2%.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index in Europe is buckling under the pressure and is posting its first decline of the week. 

Read More »

FX Daily, February 16: Greenback Remains Heavy

2021-02-16

by

2021-02-16

The equity rally appears undeterred by the rise in interest rates or the surge in oil prices.  Led by Tokyo and Hong Kong, Asia Pacific equities advanced.  China, Taiwan, and Vietnam markets remain closed. After gapping higher yesterday and extended the gains in early turnover today, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is consolidating.

Read More »

FX Daily, February 11: Oil Set to Snap 8-day Advance while Consolidative Tone Emerges in FX

2021-02-11

by

2021-02-11

Overview: The S&P 500 and NASDAQ were unable to sustain the gap higher opening to new record levels and reversed lower and fell to new three-lows. The settlements were just inside Tuesday ranges, though the Dow Industrials set a record close. Yet, there was spillover to equity trading in the Asia Pacific region and Europe today.

Read More »

FX Daily, February 9: Players are Not Buying Everything Today

2021-02-09

by

2021-02-09

The rally of US benchmarks to new record highs helped lift most Asia Pacific markets today, but the bulls are pausing in Europe, and there has been little follow-through buying of US shares.  Australia, South Korea, and Indonesia did not participate in today's regional advance led by a 2% rally in China's main indices.

Read More »

FX Daily, February 1: Markets Snap Back

2021-02-01

by

2021-02-01

Global equities are snapping back today, while the greenback retained the strength seen last week that was attributed to safe-haven flows. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-day decline led by Hong Kong, South Korea, India, and Indonesia.

Read More »

FX Daily, December 16: Greenback Slides Ahead of FOMC as Optimism Underpins Risk Appetites

2020-12-16

by

2020-12-16

Overview:  The S&P 500 snapped a four-day downdraft helped by optimism over the progress toward fiscal stimulus and some hope that a new trade deal can still be negotiated between the UK and EU.  Europe reported better than expected PMIs.  Equities are broadly higher, as are interest rates, while the dollar slumps. 

Read More »

Cool Video: CNBC-Asia–Brexit, Sterling, the Euro, and Dollar

2020-12-14

by

2020-12-14

I had the privilege to join Sri Jegarajah at CNBC Asia at the start of today's Asia Pacific session.  We had a broad chat about the dollar, Brexit, and the euro.  He gave me the opportunity to sketch out my views:1.  The dollar's entered a cyclical decline, and the "twin deficit" issue will likely frame the narrative. 

Read More »

FX Daily, December 14: Brexit Deal Hopes Lift Sterling

2020-12-14

by

2020-12-14

The fact that the UK and EU negotiators are still talking is seen as a constructive development and has spurred a sharp bounce in sterling.  It traded below $1.3150 before the weekend and is pushing above $1.3400 in the European morning. 

Read More »

FX Daily, December 11: Brexit Fears Weigh on Sterling

2020-12-11

by

2020-12-11

Overview:  The odds of a UK-EU agreement and new stimulus before year-end in the US have faded and are sapping risk appetites ahead of the weekend.  Although most Asia Pacific equity markets gained, China and Australia were notable exceptions, European shares are heavy, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is near three-week lows. 

Read More »

FX Daily, December 10: Brexit and US Stimulus are Unresolved as Attention Turns to the ECB

2020-12-10

by

2020-12-10

Overview:  US threats to break-up Facebook and the stalled stimulus talks spurred profit-taking in US shares yesterday and is dampening enthusiasm today.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the third time this week, and Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is little changed. 

Read More »

FX Daily, December 9: Hope Burns Eternal

2020-12-09

by

2020-12-09

The market is hopeful today. The Johnson-von der Leyen dinner is seen as evidence that both sides see one more opportunity, and sterling is among the strongest currencies today. Hopes of a $900 bln+ fiscal stimulus package in the US helped stir animal spirits and lift US stocks to record highs yesterday.

Read More »

FX Daily, December 2: Euro Rally Stalls while Brexit Concerns Trip Sterling

2020-12-02

by

2020-12-02

The selling pressure that drove the dollar lower yesterday has abated, and the greenback is paring yesterday's loss, though the dollar-bloc currencies are showing some resilience. EC negotiator Barnier briefed ministers that the same three issues that have bedeviled the trade talks with the UK remain unresolved (fisheries, level playing field, and a conflict resolution mechanism).

Read More »

FX Daily, December 1: No Follow-Through After Month-End Adjustments

2020-12-01

by

2020-12-01

The near-record rallies seen in the major equity markets in November may have contributed to the month-end drama yesterday. There has been no follow-through activity. Stocks bounced back, and the US dollar is heavy, with few exceptions.

Read More »

FX Daily, November 30: Equities are Heavy and the Dollar Softer to Start New Week

2020-11-30

by

2020-11-30

Overview: Month-end profit-taking saw Asia Pacific shares tumble earlier today.  Most markets are off 1-2.5% today after the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 2.25% last week.  European shares are mixed, but little changed.  US shares are also trading lower. 

Read More »

FX Daily, November 27: Dollar Offered Ahead of the Weekend

2020-11-27

by

2020-11-27

Equities are finishing the week on a firm tone, while the US dollar remains heavy.   In the Asia Pacific, only Australia and India did not end the week on a firm note.  The MSCI Asia Pacific completed its fourth consecutive weekly gain, for around a 13% gain. 

Read More »

FX Daily, November 25: Risk Appetites Stall Ahead of the US Thanksgiving Holiday

2020-11-25

by

2020-11-25

The global equity rally appears to be stalling after the US markets rallied strongly yesterday. Chinese, Taiwan, Korean, and Indian indices fell, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index appears to have posted only its second loss this month. European shares are narrowly mixed, leaving the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 little changed.

Read More »

FX Daily, November 24: Diverging PMIs Fail to Give the Dollar Lasting Support

2020-11-24

by

2020-11-24

Overview: The contrast between the eurozone and US preliminary PMI readings caught the short-term market leaning the wrong way, and the dollar snapped back after extending its recent losses.  However, today the US dollar is back on its heels and returning to yesterday's lows against most major currencies.

Read More »

FX Daily, November 20: US Treasury-Fed Dispute Spurs Handwringing but Immediate Market Impact was Exaggerated

2020-11-20

by

2020-11-20

Overview:  News that the stimulus talks between the House Democrats and Senate Republicans was the excuse traders were looking for to extend the US equity gains yesterday, but shortly after the close, confirmation that Treasury was not going to agree to extend several Fed facilities sent stocks reeling. 

Read More »

FX Daily, November 19: Surging Virus Saps Risk Appetites

2020-11-19

by

2020-11-19

Overview: News that the New York City was closing the schools to contain the virus sent stocks reeling in late North American dealings yesterday and spurred some profit-taking in the Asia Pacific and Europe.  Equities in the Asia Pacific region were mostly lower, though China, South Korea, and Australia's advanced and Tokyo markets were mixed.

Read More »