Tag Archive: Bonds

All In The Curves

2017-03-26

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2017-03-26

Notable events in the 2003 deflation scare
If the mainstream is confused about exactly what rate hikes mean, then they are not alone. We know very well what they are supposed to, but the theoretical standards and assumptions of orthodox understanding haven’t worked out too well and for a very long time now. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury is today yielding less than it did when the FOMC announced their second rate hike in December.

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Global Asset Allocation Update

2017-03-16

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2017-03-16

Moderate Allocation
There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. The Fed spent the last month forward guiding the market to the rate hike they implemented today. Interest rates, real and nominal, moved up in anticipation of a more aggressive Fed rate hiking cycle.

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China’s NPC Ends with New Initiatives

2017-03-15

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2017-03-15

China will make its mainland bond market more accessible. As China's portfolio of patents grows it will likely become more protective of others' intellectual property rights. PRC President Xi will likely visit US President Trump early next month.

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Do Record Debt And Loan Balances Matter? Not Even Slightly

2017-03-12

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2017-03-12

Z1 Total Debt Securities, 1980 - 2016
We live in a non-linear world that is almost always described in linear terms. Though Einstein supposedly said compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe, it rarely is appreciated for what the statement really means. And so the idea of record highs or even just positive numbers have been equated with positive outcomes, even though record highs and positive growth rates can be at times still associated with some of the worst. It...

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No Paradox, Economy to Debt to Assets

2017-03-11

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2017-03-11

Household Net Worth, April 1951 - 2016
It is surely one of the primary reasons why many if not most people have so much trouble accepting the trouble the economy is in. With record high stock prices leading to record levels of household net worth, it seems utterly inconsistent to claim those facts against a US economic depression.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

2017-03-05

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2017-03-05

Economic Reports Scorecard. The economic data released since my last update has been fairly positive but future growth and inflation expectations, as measured by our market indicators, have waned considerably. There is now a distinct divergence between the current data, stocks and bonds. Bond yields, both real and nominal, have fallen recently even as stocks continue their relentless march higher.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

2017-02-16

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2017-02-16

ScoreCard
The economic data since my last update has improved somewhat. It isn’t across the board and it isn’t huge but it must be acknowledged. As usual though there are positives and negatives, just with a slight emphasis on positive right now. Interestingly, the bond market has not responded to these slightly more positive readings with nominal and real yields almost exactly where they were in the last update 3 weeks ago. In other words, there’s no reason...

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As Central Bankers Spin

2016-12-25

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2016-12-25

I know that I resemble the old guy in this cartoon, standing by helplessly as I watch central bankers experiment with the global economy. Bubbles are blown, again, in several asset classes. Negative interest rates have become an acceptable concept, as if they are just words and have no real economic meaning.

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FX Daily, November 10: US Dollar, Equities, and Commodities Firmer as Reflation Trade Takes Hold

2016-11-10

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2016-11-10

FX Performance, November 10 2016 Movers and Shakers
GBP/CHF rates spiked by almost two cents during Wednesday’s trading, providing those clients holding Sterling with some of the best rates they’ve seen in the past few weeks. This move came following confirmation that Donald Trump had won the race for the White House, news which sent shockwaves through the market. How the outcome will affect the global markets is difficult to analyse at this point but could yesterday’s positive spike indicate better...

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Jim Grant Puzzled by the actions of the SNB

2016-10-27

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2016-10-27

James Grant, Wall Street expert and editor of the investment newsletter «Grant’s Interest Rate Observer», warns of a crash in sovereign debt, is puzzled over the actions of the Swiss National Bank and bets on gold.

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The ECB Made A Mistake During Its Daily Bond Purchases

2016-10-19

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2016-10-19

Something unexpected happened when the ECB released its latest bond purchase data at during its scheduled release time on Monday: in addition to the purchase of at least 20 separate corporate bonds under the bank's CSPP bond buying program during the week ended October 14, amounting to a total of €1.84 billion, which lifted the number of securities held by the central bank to 660, bringing the total to amount of its holdings to €33.8 billion, or...

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Why Krugman, Roubini, Rogoff And Buffett Hate Gold

2016-10-10

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2016-10-10

A couple of weeks ago an article appeared on Bitcoin Magazine entitled ‘Some economists really hate bitcoin’. I read it with a sigh of nostalgia. As someone who has been writing about gold for a few years, I am used to reading similar criticisms as those bitcoin receives from mainstream economists, about gold.

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Deutsche Bank CEO Returns Home Empty-Handed After Failing To Reach ‘Deal’ With DOJ: Bild

2016-10-09

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2016-10-09

Following the seemingly endless procession of short-squeeze-fueling trial balloons last week - from settlement rumors to German blue-chip bailouts to Qatari investors - Germany's Bild newspaper confirms the rumors that sparked weakness on Friday: Deutsche bank CEO John Cryan has failed to reach an agreement with the US Justice Department.

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Will The ECB Buy Stocks?

2016-10-05

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2016-10-05

Debate about the ECB’s stimulus options have continued to rage, with an equity purchase plan mentioned as a possibility. We think the ECB could legally buy ETFs that fit its requirements… but it would be controversial and we question the benefits. An ETF programme could total EUR 200bn, which would not be large compared to the overall QE programme.

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The Education Bubble: Is A Harvard MBA Worth $500,000?

2016-10-04

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2016-10-04

College students are back at their desks this month facing bleak prospects. With tightening job markets leaving kids with no place else to go, universities continue to jack up fees. The upshot is growing signs that America is in the midst of an “education bubble,” just as big as those in stock, bond, and real estate markets. Case in point: four years at Harvard University now costs nearly $250,000 [1]. If you want an MBA, add another $200,000.

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Great Graphic: Stocks and Bonds

2016-09-28

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2016-09-28

US 10-year yield and S&P 500
The relationship between the change in Us 10-year yields and the change in the S&P 500 has broken down. The 60-day correlation is negative for the first time since late Q2 2015. It is only the third such period of inverse correlation since the start of 2015.

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Attack The Fed’s War On Savers, Workers And The Unborn (Taxpayers)

2016-09-13

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2016-09-13

The central banks have gone so far off the deep-end with financial price manipulation that it is only a matter of time before some astute politician comes after them with all barrels blasting. As a matter of fact, that appears to be exactly what Donald Trump unloaded on bubble vision this morning:

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FX Weekly Preview: Capital Markets in the Week Ahead

2016-09-11

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2016-09-11

Global bonds and global stocks ended last week on a weak note and this will likely carry into this week's activity. The Bank of England meets, but the data may be more important. Oil and commodity prices more generally look vulnerable, and this coupled with higher yields sapped the Australian ad Canadian dollar in the second half of last week.

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Case For -2 percent Rates, Banning Cash? Jim Grant Blasts Lunatic Proposals

2016-09-11

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2016-09-11

Looking for group think, extrapolation of extreme silliness, linear thinking, and belief in absurd models? Then look no further than Fed presidents, their advisors, and academia loaded charlatan professors. Today’s spotlight is on Marvin Goodfriend, a former economist and policy advisor at the Federal Reserve’s Bank of Richmond, and Ken Rogoff, a chaired Harvard economics professor, a one-time chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.

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