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Dollar Weakness Resumes as Short-Covering Fades

2020-11-25

2020-11-25

Cross-Market Implied Vol, 2020

Sentiment is being buoyed by two incrementally positive stories; cross-markets implied volatility measures continue to trend lower; dollar weakness has resumed. President-elect Biden will reportedly officially name his first cabinet picks today; Fed manufacturing surveys for November will continue to roll out; Brazil and Mexico both reports mid-November inflation readings.

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Dollar Weakness Resumes as Markets Start Another Week in Risk-On Mode

2020-11-25

2020-11-25

Europe and UK PMIs, 2018-2020

Covid vaccine results from AstraZeneca and Oxford University brought another wave of optimism; dollar weakness has resumed; that said, we will refrain from making any longer-term calls for the demise of the dollar. Reports suggest President-elect Biden is pushing House Democrats to reduce the size of their fiscal package demands to unlock negotiations; Republicans have an interest in compromising.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2020-11-23

2020-11-23

Most EM currencies were up last week, once again taking advantage of broad dollar weakness. In addition, EM equities also performed well, with MSCI EM up for the third week in a row and for seven of the past eight. We expect EM assets to continue benefiting from the global liquidity story as well as the weak dollar trend.

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Dollar Bounce Likely to Fade

2020-11-21

2020-11-21

Turkey CB Rate and Cost of Funding, 2015-2020

The negative virus news stream is taking a toll on market sentiment; the dollar is benefiting from the risk-off price action but is likely to fade. Weekly jobless claims data will be of interest; Fed manufacturing surveys for November will continue to roll out; Judy Shelton’s Fed confirmation is looking less and less likely.

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Dollar Weakness Continues Ahead of US Retail Sales Data

2020-11-19

2020-11-19

Crude Futures, 2020

The dollar continues to soften. October retail sales will be the US data highlight; Fed manufacturing surveys for November have started to roll out; Republican Senator Alexander opposes Judy Shelton’s nomination to the Fed.

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Dollar Soft as Markets Start the Week in Risk-On Mode

2020-11-18

2020-11-18

EM CDS, 2020

The odds of national-level action in the US against the second wave virus outbreak remains small, even after Biden takes over; the dollar continues to soften. There is growing speculation about former Fed Chair Yellen becoming Biden’s Treasury Secretary; Fed manufacturing surveys for November will start to roll out; Peru’s interim President Merino resigned under pressure from more demonstrations.

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

2020-11-16

2020-11-16

The virus numbers in the US show no signs of slowing; the dollar should continue to soften. October retail sales Tuesday will be the US data highlight for the week; Fed manufacturing surveys for November will start to roll out; the Senate will hold a procedural vote this week to advance Judy Shelton’s nomination to the Fed Board of Governors.

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Dollar Softens Ahead of CPI Data

2020-11-13

2020-11-13

US HY Yield, 2020

Pressure on the dollar has resumed; October CPI data will be the US highlight; US bond market was closed yesterday but yields have eased a bit today. Weekly jobless claims data will be reported; monthly budget statement for October will hold some interest; Mexico is expected to cut rates 25 bp to 4.0%; Peru is expected to keep rates steady at 0.25%.

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Dollar Consolidates, Weakness to Resume

2020-11-11

2020-11-11

Turkish Asset Prices, 2020

Despite rising infections worldwide, the virus news stream has turned positive; the dollar is consolidating its gains today. With the 10-year yield rising to near 1.0%, US financial conditions are tightening; the Fed released its Financial Stability report yesterday and it pulled no punches; with the Fed media embargo over, many officials will speak today.

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Markets Gyrate Ahead of Protracted Period of Uncertainty

2020-11-06

2020-11-06

Markets likely facing an extended period of uncertainty; the dollar is seeing some safe haven bid but is well off its highs. Despite President Trump’s claim of victory and his call to halt vote counting and go to the Supreme Court, it’s important to emphasize that the election is simply not over yet; asset prices are sending a cacophony of signals as investors struggle to price multiple possibilities.

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FOMC Preview: Coronavirus Daily Change

2020-11-04

2020-11-04

Coronavirus Daily Change, 2020

The two-day FOMC meeting starts tomorrow and wraps up Thursday afternoon. While no policy changes are expected, we highlight what the Fed may or may not do. We expect a dovish hold, with Powell underscoring the growing downside risks facing the US economy in Q4.

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Dollar Firm at Start of Very Eventful Week

2020-11-03

2020-11-03

Brent Futures, 2020

Oil prices continue their rapid decline due to both supply and demand concerns; the dollar is trading at the top end of recent trading ranges. This is one of the most eventful weeks for the markets in recent memory; one day ahead of the elections, the implied odds remain roughly at the same levels as they have been for the last few weeks; October ISM manufacturing PMI will start the ball rolling for a key US data week.

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Dollar Bid as Markets Steady Ahead of ECB Decision

2020-10-31

2020-10-31

Equity Performance YTD, 2020

Global equity markets are gaining limited traction today after yesterday’s bloodbath; that sell-off helped test a now prevalent hedging thesis for investors. The dollar remains bid; US Q3 GDP data will be the data highlight; weekly jobless claims will be reported.

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ECB Preview

2020-10-28

2020-10-28

Balance Sheets, USD Trln 2007-2020

The ECB meets Thursday and is widely expected to stand pat until the next meeting. Macro forecasts won’t be updated until the December 10 meeting, but the bank will have to acknowledge the deteriorating outlook now.

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Dollar Bid as Markets Start the Week in Risk-Off Mode

2020-10-28

2020-10-28

Pound Performance, 2020

Increasing virus numbers have pushed European governments to once again start imposing national measures; the week is starting off on a risk-off note. Today may see the official end of stimulus talks; odds for Biden victory are increasing again but is already mostly priced in.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2020-10-26

2020-10-26

EM FX took advantage once again of broad dollar weakness. Most EM currencies were up last week against the dollar, with the only exceptions being ARS, TRY, INR, THB, PEN, and MYR. We expect the dollar to remain under pressure this week and so EM should remain bid.

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Dollar Catches Modest Bid but Weakness to Resume

2020-10-23

2020-10-23

Cross-Market Implied Vol, 2020

Geopolitical tensions have risen after US officials accused Russia and Iran of meddling in the elections; the dollar has caught a modest bid today. Stimulus talks continue; Pelosi warned that a deal may not come together before the November 3 election; whether Republican Senators change their minds after the elections depends on the outcome.

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Dollar Soft as Markets Await Fresh News and Rumours

2020-10-21

2020-10-21

USD YTD Performance, 2020

The dollar is coming under pressure again; markets are finally waking up to the fact that a stimulus deal before 2021 is unlikely; 10-year Treasury yields have been trading in a narrow range for months.

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

2020-10-20

2020-10-20

Some are holding out hope but we think the stimulus package remains dead; Fed releases its Beige Book report Wednesday; there is a full slate of Fed speakers this week. Fed manufacturing surveys for October will continue to roll out; weekly jobless claims will be reported Thursday; BOC releases results of its Q3 Business Outlook Survey Monday.

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