Tag Archive: Articles

Dollar Consolidates Its Gains Ahead of Jobs Report

2021-02-05

Senate Democrats are setting the table for passage of President Biden’s proposed $1.9 trln relief bill; there were glimmers of possible bipartisanship in some of the votes; US January jobs data is the highlight; Canada also reports January jobs data; Colombia reports January CPI.

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Dollar Remains Firm Despite Dovish Fed Hold

2021-01-28

by Win Thin

2021-01-28

The FOMC delivered a dovish hold, as we expected; we get our first look at Q4 GDP; Fed manufacturing surveys for January will continue to roll out; weekly jobless claims data will be closely watched.

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Dollar Trading Sideways as FOMC Meeting Begins

2021-01-26

by Win Thin

2021-01-26

Cumulative Covid-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people

The FOMC begins its two-day meeting today with a decision out tomorrow afternoon; Senate Minority Leader McConnell has finally agreed to a power-sharing deal based on the 2001 model; President Biden signaled willingness to negotiate his stimulus proposal in order to get a bipartisan deal; Fed manufacturing surveys for January will continue to roll out; Brazil reports mid-January IPCA inflation

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Dollar Flat as Markets Await Fresh Drivers

2021-01-25

by Win Thin

2021-01-25

Discussions on President Biden’s proposed $1.9 trln fiscal package are getting off to a rocky start; Fed manufacturing surveys for January will continue to roll out. ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn viewed yield curve control for the region as “not sensible”;

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Dollar Weakness Continues Ahead of ECB Decision

2021-01-22

by Win Thin

2021-01-22

Brazil Central Bank and Data, 2015 - 2020

Joe Biden became the 46th President of the US; three Democratic Senators were also sworn in; weekly jobless claims data will be the highlight of an otherwise quiet week; Fed manufacturing surveys for January will continue to roll out; Brazil kept rates on hold at 2.0%, as expected ECB is expected to keep policy unchanged; Norges Bank kept rates steady at 0%, as expected;

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Dollar Continues to Soften Ahead of Inauguration

2021-01-21

by Win Thin

2021-01-21

President-elect Biden will be inaugurated and becomes the 46th President of the United States at noon; he will hit the ground running by announcing a raft of executive orders upon taking office; Janet Yellen’s confirmation hearing was revealing; Canada and Brazil are expected to keep rates unchanged.

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

2021-01-19

by Win Thin

2021-01-19

President-elect Biden will be inaugurated Wednesday; security in Washington DC and many state capitols has been beefed up due to concerns of violence; the Senate reconvenes Tuesday and will immediately begin work on confirming Biden’s cabinet choices; reports suggest that if asked, Yellen will disavow a weak dollar policy whilst affirming commitment to a market-determined exchange rate.

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Dollar Regains Some Traction as Markets Search for Direction

2021-01-14

by Win Thin

2021-01-14

House Democrats will move ahead with impeachment proceedings today; December CPI data will be the US highlight; heavy UST supply this week wraps up with a $24 bln sale of 30-year bonds; December monthly budget statement will be of interest the Fed releases its Beige Book report; several Fed officials pushed back against notions of tapering anytime soon

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Dollar Runs Out of Steam as Sterling Leads the Way

2021-01-12

by Win Thin

2021-01-12

The US curve continues to steepen; real US yields have become less negative; UST supply will remain an issue as $38 bln of 10-year notes will be sold today; Brazil reports December IPCA inflation.

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

2020-12-21

by Win Thin

2020-12-21

As of this writing, a stimulus deal is close and a US government shutdown Monday may have been avoided; the Fed gave US banks the go-ahead to resume stock buybacks Friday; Fed manufacturing surveys for November will continue to roll out; weekly jobless claims will be reported on Wednesday due to the holiday.

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Dollar Continues to Soften Ahead of FOMC Decision

2020-12-20

by Win Thin

2020-12-20

Optimism on a stimulus deal remains high; the FOMC decision will be key; the dollar tends to weaken on recent FOMC decision days November retail sales will be the US data highlight; Markit reports preliminary December PMI readings; Canada reports November CPI

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Some Thoughts on the Latest Treasury FX Report

2020-12-18

by Win Thin

2020-12-18

The US Treasury’s latest “Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States” report named Switzerland and Vietnam as currency manipulators. Both countries came under scrutiny in the last report and so this week’s announcement was only surprising in that it was made by a lame duck administration that will be gone in a month.

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FOMC Preview

2020-12-15

by Win Thin

2020-12-15

The two-day FOMC meeting starts tomorrow and wraps up Wednesday afternoon. While no policy changes are expected, we highlight what the Fed may or may not do. We expect a dovish hold, with Powell underscoring the growing downside risks facing the US economy in the coming months.

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

2020-12-14

by Win Thin

2020-12-14

The Senate passed a stopgap bill late Friday that will keep the government funded until midnight this Friday; optimism on a stimulus deal appears to be picking up; the two-day FOMC meeting ending with a decision Wednesday will be important.

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Dollar Rally Running Out of Steam Ahead of ECB Decision

2020-12-10

by Win Thin

2020-12-10

Stimulus talks drag on; US November CPI will be today’s data highlight; US Treasury wraps up a big week of auctions today with $24 bln of 30-year bonds on offer. The November budget statement will hold some interest; weekly jobless claims will be closely watched;

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Jittery Markets Keep the Dollar Afloat (For Now)

2020-12-09

by Win Thin

2020-12-09

US fiscal negotiations are taking longer than expected; US Treasury auctions $56 bln of 3-year notes; we believe the Fed is watching the yield curve closely; Brazil reports November IPCA inflation; Chile kept rates on hold at 0.50% and tweaked its asset purchase program.

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Dollar Stabilizes but Weakness to Resume

2020-12-05

by Win Thin

2020-12-05

There are new efforts to pass another round of stimulus sooner rather than later; we warn against getting too optimistic; US bond yields rose in anticipation of stimulus; Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin gave somewhat conflicting outlooks for the US.

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Dollar Plumbs New Depths With No Relief In Sight

2020-12-03

by Win Thin

2020-12-03

Stimulus talks continue but the goalposts have indeed been moved; the good news is that a package before year-end is looking more likely; optimism regarding stimulus continues to buoy US yields. ISM services PMI is expected at 55.8 vs. 56.6 in October; weekly jobless claims data will be reported; Fed Beige Book report was suitably downbeat.

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

2020-11-30

by Win Thin

2020-11-30

Dollar weakness has resumed. This will be a very important data week for the US and the highlight will be November jobs data Friday; we will also get some important manufacturing readings for November; the Fed releases its Beige Book report for the December FOMC meeting Wednesday; Canada also has a busy week.

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