↑ Return to 1) SNB

Weekly SNB Sight Deposits: SNB Now Selling FX

Update December 6, 2022: 

Sight Deposits have fallen: The change is -5.6 bn. compared to last week, this means the SNB is selling euros and dollars.

Since one year we see the inflation scenario I was speaking about before.
During high inflation periods both the Swiss franc and gold must go up.

After the recent monetary assessment, it has  become clear that the SNB does not accept higher inflation.
One part is imported inflation, it can be reduced having a stronger currency.

Update May 19, 2022

Interestingly sight deposits are rising quite strongly, capital is flowing into Swiss francs between April 22 until May 17, when the Walmart results were published.

The price action, however, was different and mostly driven by FX speculators.

The ECB has started speaking about rate hikes  and therefore speculators were selling CHF.

Despite rising inflation in Switzerland, the SNB has decided to enforce this CHF devaluation with renewed interventions.
From history (Summer 2011), we know how this ends: The SNB might hike rates.

 

 

Week ending in (+ link to source) Events……………………. avg. EUR/CHF during period avg. USD/CHF during period Net Speculative Position
CHF vs USD
Net speculative Position
EUR vs USD
Delta sight deposits
if >0 then SNB intervention
Total Sight Deposits Sight Deposits @SNB from Swiss banks “Other Sight Deposits” @SNB (other than Swiss banks)
2 December 0.9846 0.9444 -14.2k +122.2k -5.6 bn. per week 549.8 bn. 518.0 bn. 31.8 bn.
25 November 0.9817 0.9480 -14.5k +123.1k -6.7 bn. per week 555.4 bn. 523.0 bn. 32.4 bn.
18 November 0.9806 0.9475 -16.8k +112.7k -9.0 bn. per week 562.1 bn. 524.4 bn. 37.7 bn.
11 November 0.9853 0.9727 -17.2k +107.6k -1.0 bn. per week 571.1 bn. 529.7 bn. 41.4 bn.
04 November 0.9877 1.0021 -14.8k +105.8k -9.5 bn. per week 572.1 bn. 532.0 bn. 40.1 bn.

Rising Interest Rates:

There are some periods when the Fed and the ECB are about to raise rates, then CHF might fall for some time.
Given that there are no positive real interest rates any more, these periods are usually short-lived.

The War in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine and its consequence stronger oil prices has both indicators for a stronger CHF

  • CHF as safe haven
  • CHF as inflation hedge

Inflation Hedge vs. Safe Haven

Beware that CHF is more an inflation hedge than a safe haven. The Japanese Yen and often the euro rise during stock bear markets. The reason the rising euro is that stocks are denominated rather in USD when comparing the liquidity of the EUR, CHF, JPY and USD.
The Ukraine war, however, also means a reshuffling of other assets like bonds into USD and out of the Euro.

Sight Deposits versus Speculative Position

The following table shows the recent developments of:

  • Sight Deposits, i.e. SNB interventions
  • Speculative positions CHF: Since April 2020, speculators are long CHF against USD; the number is positive.
  • FX rates (inside the graph)

 

Sight Deposits versus EUR/CHF

The following graph shows the last week’s change in sight deposits compared with the EUR/CHF exchange rate since the height of the Corona crisis.

High sight deposits is the equivalent of big SNB interventions. The SNB typically intervenes, when the EUR is weak against CHF. Clicking inside the graph, the reader can see the FX prices.

We see the lowest price for a euro at 1.0521 and 1.0568 in March 2020 and April 2020, actually when the sight deposits were highest.

Speculative Positions

The second driver of a strong CHF is the speculative position (against USD). A higher long CHF speculative position typically means that USD/CHF gets weaker.

Sight Deposits between 2014 and April 2020

The graph shows the development of sight deposits between 2014 and 2018:

  • January 2015: High SNB intervention during before the end of the peg
  • Sudden fall after that, together with the EUR/CHF rate
  • 2015-2016: Smaller interventions in @ EUR/CHF 1.10
  • June 2016: intervention during Brexit @EUR/CHF 1.08
  • Nov 2016: intervention after Trump election @EUR/CHF 1.08
  • Early 2017: intervention during with ECB bond buying @ EUR/CHF 1.05-1.10
  • July 2017: End of interventions with Macron election and the rise of EUR/CHF over 1.10 up to 1.18
  • 2018: Smaller interventions, e.g. during the Turkish Lira crisis
  • Mid 2019: Interventions, when EUR/CHF breaks 1.10 downwards again
  • 2020, before Corona: Smaller interventions, EUR/CHF towards 1.07
  • 2020, Corona Crisis: Heavy interventions

SNB Sight Deposits vs. EUR/CHF

SNB Sight Deposits vs. EUR/CHF

- Click to enlarge

Frequently Asked Questions

What are sight deposits?

They are the equivalent of cash on Swiss bank accounts, when these banks have nothing else to do with this money than giving it to the central bank in the form of "sight deposits of banks".

SNB

A: Why is SNB buying FX positions?

The SNB buys FX positions, because she considers CHF to be too strong. Hence it would harm in particular the Swiss exports and the jobs in the export industry.

A: Why is SNB selling FX positions?

To sell FX position is not a deliberate decision, but purely based on the SNB funding situation, as visible in the balance sheet above.

In short: The SNB is forced to sell

When banks remove funding on the liabilities side of the balance sheet - most the so-called "sight deposits" - then the SNB is forced to sell FX positions on the assets side.

B: Why are banks removing funds from the SNB?

Typically banks move the funds to the central bank, when they do not have nothing better to do with, e.g.

(1) lending it to companies or private investors at a (positive) interest rate with sufficiently low risk - or
(2) invest it in a currency with higher interest rates.

Ad (2) Due to regulatory restrictions, banks or insurances cannot easily invest their assets into foreign currency - other from their reporting currency. Hence (2) is mostly driven by hedge funds or speculators, which are not contained in the sight deposits.

When banks do not find the demand for loans, then they must deposit the funds at the central bank. There is no other way - apart from keeping the assets as cash.

C: Sight deposits are assets for the banks, but liabilities for the central bank.

What we explained for the central bank, is also valid for the banks: When foreigners decide to deposits funds on a Swiss bank, then the right side of the bank's balance sheet rises and so will the left side, the assets.

Again when the bank has nothing better to do with these assets, it must (sight) deposit at the central bank, at the SNB.

D: When does this vicious cycle end?

The "vicious" circle for the central bank,  is that it is buying more and more foreign FX.

This cycle is only broken when foreigners decide to stop buying assets (e.g. cash, stocks, bonds, houses) denominated in Swiss francs.

This happens typically when they think that the assets in Swiss Franc are losing too much value.

CHF cash might lose value due to FX speculators (see below)

But rising CHF stocks or rising Swiss house prices might counter the falling currency, so that it is still worth buying Swiss assets.

Terms of balance of payments

Finally we will have to look at the balance of payments. The Swiss current account surplus must be smaller than outflows in the financial account.

 

Detailed Explanations

FX Rates, Balance of Payments and Capital Flows

At the very basis you should understand that FX rates are driven by the balance of payments for this currency, i.e. by inflows of capital or by not existing capital outflows when the country has a current account surplus. These non-existent outflows are very important for Switzerland, a country with a big trade and current account surplus.  Capital inflows (or non-existent outflows) can be invested in different types of assets like real estate, stocks, bonds, physical cash or in cash on bank accounts.
SNBFX interventions
When investors do not want to buy enough foreign assets for a given (potentially manipulated FX rate), then the central bank might do this instead. This is what we call FX interventions. They are financed with local currency, with the excessive capital inflows or "non existent outflows". Very often the central bank considers the cash on bank accounts as "excessive".

As opposed to the Bank of Japan, for example, the SNB buys assets denominated in foreign currency.

Sight deposits

are the equivalent of cash on Swiss bank accounts, when these banks have nothing else to do with this money than giving it to the central bank in the form of "sight deposits of banks".

They are currently the by far most important means of financing for SNB currency purchases, for interventions. Sight deposits are assets for commercial banks, the Swiss confederation and other counterparties that deposit money at the SNB, but for the SNB they are liabilities, debt.

Sight deposits are always denominated in CHF. The SNB finances itself with Swiss Francs, while its assets are nearly all in foreign currency. When CHF appreciates, then the debt increases more than the assets. The assets lose their value. As consequence the central bank may lose its Owner's Equity which may result in a central bank bankruptcy or a recapitalization by the Swiss state.
The IMF-compliant weekly monetary data release on the SNB website provides the recent developments in sight deposits. With this weekly delivery it gives an far earlier indication of SNB interventions than the relatively late releases of balance sheet or IMF data.

Currency in Circulation

Currency in the form of bank notes and coins is the second financing method, it represents the "traditional money printing" of central bank debt with the printing press. Nowadays this printing of debt in the form of bank notes is far less important than the electronic printing of SNB debt called "sight deposits".

Money Printing

is the popular word for unsterilised central bank interventions that - at least for monetarists - paves the way for price inflation. In the following we concentrate on sight deposits as means of money printing, because currency in circulation changes far less than sight deposits. From October 2014 to October 2015, the SNB printed new bank notes of a total of 6 billion CHF but electronic money (sight deposits) rose by 100 billion francs (see the SNB balance sheet).

SNB intervention

 Sight Deposits of Swiss Banks and Other Sight Deposits

Sight Deposits of Swiss banks

They are part of M0, the monetary base: With the money multiplier effect, money on Swiss banks have a higher influence on Swiss lending and inflation. Therefore the two categories are separated. For monetarists, a big rise in Swiss sight deposits would be a bigger issue than the increase of the second item, which is:

"Other Sight Deposits"

are the ones of other counter-parties with an account at the SNB. These include loans from the Swiss confederation and federal authorities like the state pension fund (In German "AHV"). Other counter parties are insurances, private pension funds, settlement agencies, foreign banks, investment companies, hedge funds and foreign central banks and institutions. These other sight deposits are not part of M0, because they are not able to "multiple money" with loans to the public (no money multiplier effect).

Negative Rates on Sight Deposits

Since December 2014, sight deposits above the threshold of around 320 bn. are "punished" with negative rates (20 times more than the minimum reserves, visible in "compliance in %" on the monetary data). The punishment fee is currently 0.75%. Hence by End of November 2015, around 148 bn. CHF are concerned by the negative rates, while the 320 bn. are "exempted".  Between November 2015 and April 2016, sight deposits increased by 22 bn. . Since the exemption level did not increase, all these 22 bn should be punished by 0.75%. The SNB achieved a profit of 333 million on negative rates only in Q1/2016.

The relationship between CFTC speculative position and sight deposits

Example: The data graph shows that real money went long 13.1 billion CHF during the week of Jan 15, 2015, but FX speculators were short CHF by 26444 x 125K contracts. Speculators got ripped off by real money. It is also visible that only in November 2014, the SNB started to intervene: delta sight deposits remained at zero before.


Detailed Table

This is the detailed table that shows how the SNB increased its debt and accumulated FX investments - and

how it sold FX positions since Summer 2017.

The terms are explained in the sections above.

Weekly SNB Intervention Watch: Sight Deposits

Date
(+ link to source)
avg. EUR/CHF during periodavg. USD/CHF during periodavg. EUR/USD during periodEventsNet Speculative CFTC Position CHF against USDDelta sight deposits
if >0 then SNB intervention
Total Sight DepositsSight Deposits
@SNB from Swiss banks
"Other Sight Deposits" @SNB (other than Swiss banks)
2 December 2022 0.98460.94441.0426-14.2k-5.6 bn. per week549.8 bn.518.0 bn.31.8 bn.
25 November 2022 0.98170.94801.0357-14.5k-6.7 bn. per week555.4 bn.523.0 bn.32.4 bn.
18 November 2022 0.98060.94751.0350-16.8k-9.0 bn. per week562.1 bn.524.4 bn.37.7 bn.
11 November 2022 0.98530.97271.0131-17.2k-1.0 bn. per week571.1 bn.529.7 bn.41.4 bn.
04 November 2022 0.98771.00210.9857-14.8k-9.5 bn. per week572.1 bn.532.0 bn.40.1 bn.
End October 2022 0.99040.99360.9968-11.3k-88.0 bn. per month581.6 bn.539.6 bn.42.0 bn.
End September 2022 0.95590.98460.9709-5.7k-83.1 bn. per month669.6 bn.563.7 bn.105.9 bn.
End August 2022 0.96120.96490.9962-2.4k+5.6 bn. per month752.7 bn.643.6 bn.109.1 bn.
End July 2022 0.97670.95861.0190-11.3k-1.3 bn. per month747.1 bn.635.3 bn.111.8 bn.
End June 2022 1.01430.96281.0536SNB Now Selling FX-7.2k-5.6 bn. per month748.4 bn.653.5 bn.94.9 bn.
End May 2022 1.02900.96081.0711Falling CHF despite capital flowing into CHF-19.7k+11.4 bn. per month754.0 bn.663.0 bn.91.0 bn.
End April 2022 1.02790.95091.0809-11.4k+11.2 bn. per month742.6 bn.667.6 bn.75.0 bn.
End March 2022 1.02490.93151.1004-8.4k+6.6 bn. per month731.4 bn.658.5 bn.72.9 bn.
End January 2022 1.03780.91481.1345-10.8k+2.1 bn. per month724.8 bn.657.4 bn.67.4 bn.
End December 2021 1.04080.92281.1278-8.3k+3.4 bn. per month722.7 bn.645.7 bn.77.0 bn.
End November 2021 1.05100.92741.1333-8.9k+2.2 bn. per month719.3 bn.646.7 bn.72.6 bn.
End October 2021 1.06460.91701.1609-19.4k+2.6 bn. per month717.1 bn.645.3 bn.71.8 bn.
End September 2021 1.08400.92501.1717-9.2k-0.1 bn. per month714.5 bn.636.0 bn.78.5 bn.
End August 2021 1.08110.92071.1742+9.7k+2.7 bn. per month714.6 bn.639.3 bn.75.3 bn.
End July 2021 1.07800.91031.1842+8.5k-0.6 bn. per month711.9 bn.636.4 bn.75.5 bn.
End June 2021 1.09480.91771.1930+13.6k+2.0 bn. per month712.5 bn.631.0 bn.81.5 bn.
End May 2021 1.09540.89731.2207-1.2k+9.1 bn. per month710.5 bn.634.6 bn.75.9 bn.
End April 2021 1.10180.91171.2086-0.7k-1.2 bn. per month701.4 bn.634.0 bn.67.4 bn.
End March 2021 1.10530.93421.1830+2.9k-1.5 bn. per month702.6 bn.630.0 bn.72.6 bn.
End February 2021 1.09770.90401.2143+11.5k-0.5 bn. per month704.1 bn.640.8 bn.63.3 bn.
End January 2021 1.07800.88851.2132+10.1k+0.7 bn. per month704.6 bn.637.4 bn.67.2 bn.
End December 2020 1.08350.88851.2196+14.7k-2.6 bn. per month703.9 bn.632.3 bn.71.6 bn.
End November 20201.08120.90841.1903+15.0k-1.1 bn. per month706.5 bn.644.4 bn.62.1 bn.
End October 2020 1.06970.9116 1.1734+15.5k+3.1 bn. per month707.6 bn.636.1 bn.71.5 bn.
End September 2020 1.07820.92251.1687+15.9k+2.9 bn. per month704.5 bn.634.2 bn.70.3 bn.
End August 2020 1.07450.90801.1835+11.9k+7.9 bn. per month701.6 bn.636.5 bn.65.1 bn.
End July 2020 1.07690.91441.1777+8.4k
+10.7 bn. per month693.7 bn.625.5 bn.68.2 bn.
End June 2020 1.06590.94741.1251After SNB+1.4k
+1.4 bn. per month683.0 bn.602.5 bn.80.5 bn.
End May 2020 1.06420.96641.1013Corona Recovery Rally+8.7k
+31.0 bn. per month681.6 bn.597.8 bn.83.8 bn.
End April 2020 1.05210.97021.0829Reopening in bigger parts of Europe+4.9k+30.1 bn. per month650.6 bn.573.9 bn.76.7 bn.
End March 2020 1.0602 0.97161.0913Corona panic+4.9k+24.8 bn. per month620.5 bn.529.0 bn.91.5 bn.
End February 2020 1.06330.97301.0928+0.6k+7.0 bn. per month595.7 bn.502.2 bn.93.5 bn.
End January 2020 1.06980.96971.1044+3.5k+4.1 bn. per month588.7 bn.503.7 bn.85.0 bn.
End December 2019 1.08840.98211.1108-20.9k-5.2 bn. per month584.6 bn.499.0 bn.85.6 bn.
End November 2019 1.09930.99311.1012-21.0k-2.9 bn. per month589.4 bn.504.2 bn.85.2 bn.
End October 20191.10130.99271.1118-11.3k+0.1 bn. per month592.3 bn.487.9 bn.104.4 bn.
End September 20191.08570.99071.0963-10.6k+0.6 bn. per month592.2 bn.477.9 bn.114.3 bn.
End August 20191.08830.97881.1052-3.8k+10.4 bn. per month591.6 bn.475.6 bn.116.0 bn.
End July 2019 1.10210.98791.1151-13.2k+1.9 bn. per month581.2 bn.477.1 bn.104.1 bn.
End June 2019 1.11030.98781.1372-16.5k+1.1 bn. per month579.3 bn.466.7 bn.112.6 bn.
End May 2019 1.12141.01051.1161-34.7k+1.5 bn. per month578.2 bn.474.3 bn.103.9 bn.
End April 2019 1.13941.00891.1178-37.5k+0.6 bn. per month576.7 bn.479.8 bn.96.9 bn.
End March 2019 1.11891.00011.1248-27.3k-0.4 bn. per month576.1 bn.488.5 bn.87.6 bn.
End February 2019 1.13501.00151.1335-18.1k-0.2 bn. per month576.5 bn.493.6 bn.82.9 bn.
End January 2019 1.13190.98951.1373-22.9k+2.5 bn. per month576.7 bn.481.7 bn.95.0 bn.
End December 20181.12620.99201.1397-22.9k-2.7 bn. per month574.2 bn.479.0 bn.95.2 bn.
End November 20181.13101.00081.1339-21.0k-1.1 bn. per month576.9 bn.472.0 bn.104.9 bn.
End October 20181.13871.1418-17.1k+0.1 bn. per month578.0 bn.470.0 bn.108.0 bn.
End September 20181.13681.1686-16.0k+1.7 bn. per month577.9 bn.474.8 bn.103.1 bn.
End August 20181.13371.1658-44.7k-0.2 bn. per month576.2 bn.477.8 bn.98.4 bn.
End July 2018 1.16021.1678-45.8k0576.4 bn.476.5 bn.99.9 bn.
End June 2018 1.15491.1640-38.0k-0.2 bn. per month576.4 bn.469.3 bn.107.1 bn.
End May 2018 1.16401.1725-37.3k+1.6 bn. per month576.6 bn.466.3 bn.110.3 bn.
End April 2018 1.19681.2160-10.2k-0.3 bn. per month575.1 bn.471.1 bn.104.0 bn.
End March 2018 1.17621.2356-9.4k-0.6 bn. per month575.4 bn.469.2 bn.106.2 bn.
End February 2018 1.15261.2331-15788X125K+1.0 bn. per month576 bn.460.2 bn.115.8 bn.
End January 2018 1.16951.2370-22115X125K+1.8 bn. per month575 bn.465.1 bn.109.9 bn.
End December 20171.17131.1911-13902X125K-4.2 bn. per month573.2 bn.473.4 bn.99.8 bn.
End November 20171.16451.1815-27983X125K-1.1 bn. per month577.4 bn.477.9 bn.99.6 bn.
End October 2017 1.16181.1698-11597X125K-0.5 bn. per month578.5 bn.469.4 bn.109.1 bn.
End September 2017 1.14341.1799-1862X125K-0.2 bn. per month579.0 bn.473.0 bn.106.0 bn.
End August 2017 1.14381.1921-1778X125K+0.1 bn. per month579.2 bn.468.5 bn.110.7 bn.
End July 2017 1.11841.1691-1550X125K+0.5 bn. per month579.1 bn.478.9 bn.100.2 bn.
End June 2017 1.09131.1353-4669X125K+2.6 bn.per month578.6 bn.490.0 bn.88.6 bn.
End May 2017 1.09121.1202-19785X125K+4.5 bn. per month576 bn.489.3 bn.86.7 bn.
End April 2017 1.08321.0895-17317X125K+9.8 bn. per month571.5 bn.479.5 bn.92.0 bn.
End March 2017 1.07091.0754Eurozone core inflation only at 0.7%-16392X125K+13.5 bn. per month561.7 bn.475.1 bn.86.6 bn.
End February 2017 1.06481.0570New record in Swiss trade surplus-8936X126K+15.4 bn. per month548.2 bn.470.2 bn.78.0 bn.
End January 2017 1.07181.0725US Q4 GDP only +1.9%-13644X125K+3.8 bn. per month532.8 bn.466.7 bn.66.1 bn.
End December 20161.07281.0467-10091X125K+1.5 bn. per month529.0 bn.466.3 bn.62.7 bn.
End November 20161.07491.0786Election of Donald Trump, Renzi loses referendum in Italy-24334X125K+9 bn. per month527.5 bn.457.6 bn.69.9 bn.
End October 20161.08391.0920Strong US GDP Release-18700x125K
+1.1 bn. per month518.5 bn.451.9 bn.66.6 bn.
End September 20161.08911.1230SNB intervenes at end Q3. Speculator follow.-5956x125K
+1.6 bn. per month517.4 bn.452.9 bn.64.5 bn.
End August 20161.09611.1169Not convincing U.S. jobs numbers, that may delay a Fed rate hike.
+8208x125K
+4.4 bn. per month515.8 bn. 438.7 bn.77.0 bn.
End July 20161.08681.1058US Q2 GDP only +1.2%
+946x125K
+3.9 bn per month511.4 bn 435.0 bn 76.4 bn
End June 20161.08801.13Brexit: Interventions for 10.8 bn CHF+10867x125K
+13.4 bn per month507.5 bn 430.3 bn 77.2 bn
End May 20161.10651.1365Reduction in CHF long, smaller SNB interventions+3954x125K
+2.9 bn per month494.1 bn 420.7 bn 73.4 bn
End April 20161.09341.1340Long CHF vs. USD still increasing, SNB intervening at high levels+9410x125K
+7.5 bn per month491.2 bn 423.9 bn 67.3 bn
End March 20161.09291.1142Speculators shift to CHF long after Fed reduced rate expectations+4967x125K
+6.1 bn per month483.7 bn 420.2 bn 63.5 bn
End February 20161.10131.1105SNB interventions for 5.1 bn CHF-2321x125K
+5.1 bn per month477.6 bn 418.0 bn 59.6 bn
End January 20161.09421.0866Some distortion in sight deposits with the End December "tax effect".-4506x125K
(Short CHF)
+4.8 bn per month472.7 bn 403.1 bn 69.2 bn
End December 20151.08281.0900With "dovish" Fed hike, short CHF pos. evaporates, SNB selling+3564x125K- 0.5 bn per month467.9 bn 403.8 bn 64.1 bn
End November 20151.08401.0735Speculation about lower Swiss neg. rates: high spec. pos. against CHF-15329x125K+1 bn per month468.4 bn 401.7 bn 66.7 bn
End October 20151.08571.1004Draghi threads with more QE, SNB with lower neg. rates+1499x125k
+2.1 bn per month467.4 bn 401.3 bn 66.1 bn
End September 20151.09221.1237Greek elections and Volkswagen neg. for Euro-2715x125k
+1.4 bn per month465.3 bn 399.1 bn 66.1 bn
End August 20151.081.1250China crisis negative for CHF and pos. for USD (see more)-12597x125k
(CHF short)
+3 bn per month463.9 bn 396.0 bn 67.9 bn
July 17, 20151.04261.0904Deal with Greece achieved+3100x125k
(CHF long)
+0.8 bn each week460.9 bn 396.8 bn 64 bn
End June 20151.04001.1100Greek Referendum +6900x125k+3.4 bn per month457.9 bn 391.1 bn 66.7 bn
End May 20151.04051.1160Ascent of EUR/USD with rising German inflation+8300x125k+5.5 bn per month454.5 bn 380.5 bn 73.5 bn
End April 20151.031.09Weak US GDP let Euro and CHF rise.+1300x125k+6 bn
per month
449 bn 384 bn 65 bn
End March 20151.06021.0831Euro falls thanks to Greek and Draghi fool game (GR= 1.5% of EU GDP)+706x125k0443 bn 379.3 bn 64 bn
End February 20151.06171.1353Greeks continue fooling Germany-5085x125k
(CHF short)
0443 bn 383.6 bn 59.7 bn
January 30, 20151.041.1340Greek crisis again: Run to safety continues-7373x125k+14.8 bn per week443 bn 383.3 bn 59.7 bn
January 23, 20150.991.1340Neg. CHF rate of 0.75% introduced-9809x125k+26.2 bn per week428.2 bn 365.5 bn 62.7 bn
January 16, 20150.99881.1578End of EUR/CHF peg-26444x125k
(before end peg)
+13.1 bn per week402 bn 339.6 bn 62.4 bn
January 9, 20151.20091.18ECB QE Onset, Brent: 47$-24171x125k2.4 bn per week388.9 bn 329 bn 59.7 bn
End December 20141.20201.2099Rouble crisis, Brent: 54$, neg. CHF interest 0.25%-16545x125k16.5 bn per month386.5 bn 327.7 bn 58.8 bn
End November 20141.20261.2436Gold referendum,Brent:69$-23424x125k3.6 bn per month370.6 bn 319 bn 51.4 bn
End October 20141.20281.2525Brent: 84$-20283x125k0367 bn 310 bn 56.4 bn
End September 20141.21151.2632Brent:91$-12557x125k0368 bn 310 bn 58 bn
End August 20141.20601.3128Brent: 101$-13039x125k0367 bn 310 bn 57 bn
End July 20141.21501.2832ECB QE Talk taking effect on markets-11764x125k0368 bn 310 bn 58 bn
End June 20141.21581.3596First ECB easing-6813x125k
(CHF spec.pos turns neg.)
0368 bn 301 bn 67 bn
End May 20141.21921.3642+13703x125k0367 bn 304 bn 63 bn
End Q1, 20141.22271.3703Ukraine crisis+14819x125k0368 bn 316 bn 52 bn
End Q4, 20131.23031.3588US recovery despite gov. shut-down+10889x125k0364 bn 319 bn 45 bn
Previous Record High1.20471.2927Nov2012:-3367x..
June2013:-28972x
12 bn per month
total 256 bln. CHF
373 bn
(Nov 2012)
321 bn
(June 2013)
March 16, 20121.20401.3300Temporary low in sight deposits-19812x125k-4 bn (SNB selling Euros) 217 bn 159 bn 58 bn
December 20111.20401.2948Markets perceive higher floor thread-10978x125k-26 bn (SNB selling Euros) 221 bn 180 bn 41 bn
September 16, 2011 (first record)1.21551.2940After establishment of 1.20 floor+5400x125k
(CHF long despite floor)
58.4 bn (sept 2011)247.4 bn 206 bn 42 bn
August 20111.181.4379US Downgrade, ECB intervention+9342x125k159 bn (Aug 2011)189 bn 164 bn 25 bn
July 20111.121.4396SNB absorbs liquidity with SNB bills+7877x125k-71 bn (SNB sterilizes via SNB bills) 30 bn
(Thirty)
May/June 20101.401.2306SNB abandons interventions-12810x125k24 bn 101 bn
May 02 20091.51641.41First high during fin. crisis-4922x125k77 bn
May/June 20101.401.2306SNB abandons interventions-12810x125k24 bn 101 bn
May 02 20091.51641.41First high during fin. crisis-4922x125k77 bn
May/June 20101.401.2306SNB abandons interventions-12810x125k24 bn 101 bn

 

Q&A

Roger: Are there other explanations than interventions for increased sight deposits?

George Dorgan: There are two means of financing for current interventions:

1) Sight Deposits (electronic printing)

2) Bank notes (“traditional” money printing)

So when cash is converted into sight deposits at the SNB, then this may happen without interventions. But sight deposits increase.

Roger: The SNB buys in any case, even if the rate is high. Why?

George Dorgan: Yes you are right. But interventions at too high levels, is a potential risk for SNB's solvability. But why does she do it?

1) If the SNB sells the EUR/CHF or does not buy at all, then the EUR would move downwards. The bank does not like this.

2) The SNB wants to support the carry trade, the upwards trend of EUR/CHF.

The conclusion is that the SNB will sell euros from a certain level. In an earlier post, I thought they sell at 1.10 but I got wrong, for now...

Remember that the SNB sold euros in early 2012 so that the euro went slowly towards 1.20.

Roger: Is it possible that money isn’t credited to an account instantly but after a few days, right? Last week the deposits increased. This could be because of interventions in the last week or the week before, right? But in the last two weeks the Euro-Franc exchange rate was pretty high.

George Dorgan:

Speculative positions against CHF (CHF short) may be higher than CHF sight deposits (CHF Long). The CFTC position is only a part of the total spec position.  Brokers and foreign banks hedge some of their client EUR long positions with SNB sight deposits or indirectly via Swiss banks like UBS. When and how much they hedge, depends. As January 15th shows, banks are usually not completely hedged.

You might get confused with this answer, read more here why sight deposits can be viewed in two ways, depending who creates them, the central bank SNB or the commercial banks that deposit funds.

For Older Headlines see next page

George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.
See more for 1.) SNB, George Dorgan's opinion

Permanent link to this article: https://snbchf.com/snb/interventions-sight-deposits-speculative-positions-chf/

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.