Category Archive: 1) SNB and CHF

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The Swiss National Bank and the EUR/CHF floor have become a political football

2012-06-10

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2012-06-10

Adsense inside posts
  How the SNB Chairman Jordan has invited hedge funds and smart investors to a risk-free, high-return guaranteed investment in Swiss francs A wrap-up of Swiss newspapers for non-German literates In parallel to the start of the UEFA Euro 2012, the Swiss National Bank and its policy towards the EUR/CHF exchange rate has become a political …

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The “Sell in May, come back in October” effect and its equivalent for the SNB

2012-06-09

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2012-06-09

Sell in May, Come back in October
  The "Sell in May, come back in October" effect It is the same seasonal anomaly nearly every year: The statistically flawed (see here and here) Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report delivers some good winter readings with 200K new jobs, this time additionally fuelled by a weather effect; biased data that let hard-core Keynesian policy makers doubt Okun's law. Consequently the stock markets rally …

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A central bank running suicide ? SNB prints at pace never seen since EUR/CHF parity in August 2011

2012-06-04

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2012-06-04

Printing PressClick
  The most recent money supply data from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has shown increases of huge amounts. As compared with its loss of 19 bln. francs in 2010 (3% percent of the Swiss GDP), the central bank printed tremendous 17.3 bln. in the week ending in June 1st and 13 bln. in the one …

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EUR/CHF, A History of Interventions: May 2012

2012-05-31

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2012-05-31

5-24 eurchf
FT A Wee Bit Late To The Party… Notices Europeans have been buying Swiss francs and dollars. Who knew? By Jamie Coleman  || May 30, 2012 at 19:43 GMT AUD/USD, NZD/USD Dragged Higher As EUR Recovers As Gerry mentioned earlier, the talk of a rescue fund for EZ banks seems to have set off some short covering … Continue reading »

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CNBC rumors: Different peg methods for the SNB

2012-05-30

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2012-05-30

Crawling peg RSD
There are currently rumors going on on CNBC that the SNB is planning something this night. As we explained here, the SNB had to strongly restart the printing press and printed tremendous 13 bln francs in one week. Moreover, they probably sold some of their in Q4 2011 and Q1 2012 acquired GBP, JYP and …

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SNB switched from selling euros to buying euros, might sell GBP

2012-05-30

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2012-05-30

GBP EUR
As explained in our previous post, at least till May 4th the Swiss National Bank could have been a net buyer of GBP, USD and JPY selling Euros off their balance sheet. In the week of May 11, QE3 talk came up together with a bad Phily Fed reading. From then the SNB had to acquire … Continue reading »

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Huge rise in Currency Reserves: The SNB has restarted the printing press

2012-05-29

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2012-05-29

Euro Trash Recycled
The game for the Swiss National Bank seems to have changed completely. Again the central bank had increase money supply, as measured by deposits at the SNB by local banks and other sight deposits, this time even by 13219 mil. francs (source). This money printing implies that the SNB had to buy in Euros in …

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SNB’s Jordan admits that EUR/CHF floor will not be raised

2012-05-27

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2012-05-27

SNB Chairman Jordan speaks to media during a news conference in Bern
For the first time the chairman of the Swiss National Bank Jordan has admitted that the EUR/CHF floor of 1.20 will not be raised. In an interview with the Swiss Sonntagszeitung, here also cited by Bloomberg, he said:

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Rumors about tax on Swiss deposits for foreigners and further SNB measures: SNB begging for pips

2012-05-24

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2012-05-24

capital controls
Exactly when the US had a relatively good Markit Flash PMI, rumors are sent out that deposits in CHF for foreigners should be taxed.  To send out this rumor together with good US data seems to be intentional. According to Banque CIC the SNB has declined to comment. We remember the last SNB meeting when similar rumors circulated.

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Why the floor will never be lifted to 1.25 ?

2012-05-24

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2012-05-24

Or why the biggest opponents of the SNB are not Weltwoche and the SVP (Swiss People’s Party) but the Federal Reserve

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Will the SNB double or triple the forex reserves before they give in ?

2012-05-24

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2012-05-24

snb buying belling 2010-2012 chf, eur/chf
Some economists have claimed that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be always able to maintain the floor. As opposed to George Soros’ defeat of the Bank of England, the SNB is able to print money ad infinitum, whereas the BoE had limited currency reserves to support sterling. The question, however, is where this “infinitum” …

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Why the SNB fixed the peg at 1.2010 and not at 1.2000 ?

2012-05-24

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2012-05-24

peg 1.2010 eur chf
As we have showed in a preceding post, the SNB seems to have decided the peg the franc to the euro at 1.20. Therefore the SNB traders were actively selling euros and buying francs even close to the floor limit of 1.20. But then in the beginning of April some Asian traders managed to push the … Continue reading...

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Daniel Hügli Rede an der GV Unia Grenchen-Lengnau

2012-05-23

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Is the play time over for the SNB ? SNB Buys Euros Again, but the EUR/CHF does not move a pip

2012-05-20

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2012-05-20

monetary expansion snb
As also noticed by Credit Suisse, the Swiss National Bank had to buy euros and sell Swiss francs in the week of May 11th to May 18th. Their recent easy strategy to sell euros and buy Swiss Francs and to diversify from euros into other currencies may not continue.

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Former SNB chief economist: Capital controls are just empty words

2012-05-20

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2012-05-20

capital controls
A former SNB chief economist says that capital controls are impossible, just empty words. In case of a Euro break-up the Swissie must rise together with USD, GBP and JPY  An article, surprisingly from the usually left-wing Tagesanzeiger, more or less closely translated with some additional remarks.

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Is the SNB pegging away from the Euro to the SDR currency basket using their FX reserves ?

2012-05-10

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2012-05-10

snb fx currency distribution q1 2012 usd eur jpy
We reckon that the central bank has introduced an automatic peg mechanism which obliges them to buy euros at exactly 1.2010 and sell euros above this level (reasons and details here). If they sold more euros than they bought, they are happy to have offloaded some items of their overloaded balance sheet. If they bought more euros than they sold, however, there are some "superfluous" euros. Instead putting these euros on their balance sheet, they...

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SNB buys Swiss Francs and sells Euro: Welcome to the EUR/CHF peg

2012-05-01

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2012-05-01

dailyfx long eur/chf q1 2012
Why the big Q1 loss of the SNB was actually a big win for the central bank Anybody watching the EUR/CHF exchange rate this year was wondering why the volatility the pair saw last year had completely left. The pair slowly fell from 1.2156 over 1.2040 at the end of Q1 to 1.2014 today. FX … Continue reading...

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EUR/CHF, A History, Market Betting on Floor: March 2012

2012-03-31

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2012-03-31

eurchf 8 hours
Nomura Touts EUR/CHF Longs Strategists there advise going long around the current levels, they say the floor will not break. They target 1.24. I have to agree. To me, it’s a question of buying low or buying a bit lower. By Adam Button  || March 30, 2012 at 14:50 GMT EUR/CHF Touches One-Month Low Bounced off … Continue reading »

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SNB Statistical Publications



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SNB meeting on March 15th, 2012: Pure Speculation that SNB raises floor, How to Trade it ?

2012-03-14

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2012-03-14

Between November 2011 and January 2012 mostly left-wing politicians and trade unions wanted the EUR/CHF floor to be risen to 1.30 or 1.40 and uttered their wishes regularly in the Swiss newspapers, triggering many FX traders to speculate on this hike. Recently these demands have become more silent even if some UBS analysts still see the floor to …

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