Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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How We’re Dealing with Inflation Squared

2022-04-14

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(4/14/22) How does the math of inflation, deflation, and recession work? What if Elon Musk buys Twitter? CPI & PPI: How American's are coping w highest inflation in 40-years (taking credit card debt); Dealing with the realities of inflation; the drag on the economy & what really causes recession. Corporate earnings reporting: Big Banks; why this time IS a little different--and that's not good. Expectations for .5% Fed rate hike. 1:35 -...

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Will an Over-sold Market lead to a Bounce? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-04-13

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(4/13/22) Markets are back on a sell-signal, and getting back to an over-sold condition, suggestive of a bounce. Coming on the heels of the hottest inflation print since 1981, markets are working to hold support at the 50-DMA. This pattern is not just confined to the S&P 500; International markets are continuing into a very negative downtrend, Emerging Markets have performed terribly this year,. In fact, International and Emerging Markets have...

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The Tax Man Cometh

2022-04-13

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(4/13/22) Big Banks lead off the next round of Q-1 earnings reports with a confounded perspective of heightened earnings expectations with haltered profit margin forecasts. Are valuation declines a risk for later in the year? Last-minute tax tips and a gentle correction of our host...but wait, there's more corrective action to be heard. How Elon Musk triggered Twitterers. Inflation is causing demand destruction in housing and used cars. The...

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Interest Rates’ Effect on Investor Psychology | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-04-12

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(4/12/22) The recent surge in interest rates must be viewed in context: This IS one of the largest draw downs in Bond prices--and rate hikes--in quite some time. But rates are only back where they were in 2019--pre-Pandemic shutdown: Houses were selling (there was a "shortage") and consumers were spending. Post-pandemic, home buyers are "being shut out" because of current rates (at the same 2019 levels); what's the difference?...

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Rising Fuel Prices – Did Biden Go Too Far?

2022-04-12

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(4/12/22) The Easter holiday weekend gives you three days to file your 2021 Tax Return, due this year on April 17. Lance Market commentary and CPI Preview. How Joe Biden has run afoul of environmentalists as he contorts to control the rising fuel price fiasco he caused. The Millennial Narcissism epidemic, and how market metrics affect investor psychology; the substitution effect; just because interest rates are, doesn't necessarily mean they'll go...

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Light Trading Ahead of Easter | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-04-11

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(4/11/22) This will likely be a much-lighter trading week, ahead of the Good Friday holiday and Easter. Markets have been in an orderly decline following the recent rally; markets are holding support right at the 50-DMA. If that level can be sustained, markets will be primed to rally again. However, sell-signals have been triggered from a fairly high level, so more correctional action is also possibility. Markets are continuing in a month-long...

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Why Everyone is Obsessed with Recession

2022-04-11

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Earnings season is about to re-convene: What companies say about forward looking guidance will be key. This is a holiday-shortened trading week with Good Friday. We've been in a major bear market, despite what the main stream media says. What does it mean when everyone is talking about Recession? A discussion of Yield Curve(s) behaviors; how you know we're at the peak of a business cycle. The problem with lagging indicators. King Richard & Will...

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What is a Retirement Plan?

2022-04-09

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(4/8/22) What corporations are saying about inflation & future earnings. Creativity in the Peep-dom: Richard discovers alternatively-flavored marshmallow Peeps; Wal-art's $100k truck drivers. Annuities in retirement; where's the target on target-dated funds (on your back). How to Quell Retirement Fears vs reaching retirement goals; what is the real definition of "retirement plan?" Achieving retirement nirvana vs under-funded plans....

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How Interest Rates Really Respond to the Fed | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-04-07

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(4/7/22) How do interest rates respond to Fed dynamics? Meeting minutes from the latest FOMC confab reveal a majority of Fed members favor an accelerated tapering of the Fed's balance sheet, and schedule of rate hikes--leading to Wednesday's sell-off. Historically, previous rate hikes and balance sheet lightening resulted in counter-intuitive movement in actual interest rates. Using the 10-year Treasuries as a proxy, it's interesting to note...

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How Markets Are Responding to a Faster Fed

2022-04-07

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(4/7/22) Now that the Fed's more rapid rate hike cat is out of the bag, markets celebrated with a Wednesday sell-off; at this point, it's instructive to note the history of market activity around such hikes; earnings growth will be challenged by higher rates, higher borrowing costs; Coffee Talk: Taking the Caffeine our of the Markets; markets have priced-in the Fed's rate hikes. The Fed's talking the talk, and hoping markets will do the heavy...

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Will the Markets’ Reflexive Rally Remain?

2022-04-06

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(4/6/22) The Fed's Lael Brainard is calling for a faster run-off of its balance sheet in a more rapid application of quantitative tightening; this will not create any more inventory, but will reduce buyers. Margin Calls and the problem with bailouts; why the weak should be allowed to fail. The ferocity of downward trends; the conundrum of margins in commodity markets. How liquidity kills you quickly. Watch for the Fed to return to QE. Will the...

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Where Will Markets Go in April? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-04-04

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(4/4/22) April tends to be a strong month, statistically; will that trend prevail this year? Only a few weeks ago did markets sell-off into extreme over-sold territory on Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Since then, markets have rallied, and now needs to consolidate to hold important critical support at moving averages that are just below current market levels. If markets break through these levels, there will be a retest of market lows. By May, all...

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Anatomy of a Bear Market

2022-04-04

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(4/4/22) Elon Musk knows how to combat Twitter, scooping up a 9% stake in the company; April is a stronger month for markets, but could the Fed's activity make for a sloppy summer of trading? Jobs Act 4.0 & How Wall St. extracts capital by changing "accredited investor" definition. More Life with the Roberts, the worst thing you can do for kids; anatomy of a bear market. Best Ice Cream Flavors, on-boarding back into the markets, the...

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What is Retirement Reform?

2022-04-02

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(4/1/22) There's no need for April Foolery--things are strange enough as they are; We need Reagan's 'Whip Inflation Now' resurrected; what is the Yield Curve telling us; how to read the Bond Market. Assessing Retirement Reform; the Opus Newton experiment; What did Granpda Rosso's Retirement look like--and is that what you want? Social Security claiming strategies & decisions.

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Will Markets Continue Their Bullish March? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-03-31

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(3/31/22) Markets have enjoyed a 10% rally in the waning days of March, very much in line with a typical bull market. As we enter the month of April, statistically, markets would tend to follow through with March's performance. However, a pullback to support would not be surprising, and would allow markets to work off their over-bought conditions. The Fed will be hiking rates, monetary policy will tighten and inflation will more and more weigh on...

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Will the Fed Hike Rates Eight Times?

2022-03-31

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(3/31/22) "The Smartest Guys in The Room," the story of Enron and Video streaming juxtaposed with the launch Tuesday of CNN+; why a market correction is needed to work off excesses. It's a good time to be an agnostic: Neither Bull or Bear. So how many times will the Fed raise rates (before something gets broken)? The Carbon Credits scam and "green gas premiums; the adverse consequences from the quest for "green" energy. How...

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What the Largest Rally Since 1932 Means for Your Money | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-03-30

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(3/30/22) The current, near-10% rally is largest we've seen in history--assuming we're in a bear market. While technically, we didn't see a correction, the actions of the market belies otherwise. It is only in bear markets that these types of reflexive rallies are observed.

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The Biggest Risk to Markets Now

2022-03-30

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York Peppermint Patties & Coffee Prices, and the market rally continues, courtesy of a feigned pullback by Russia in Ukraine; why rallies like this only occur in bear markets. The Wisdom of Weddings on Birthdates (and other holidays); What happens after this rally?

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Is this a Bear Squeeze or a Return of the Bull? | 3:00 on markets & Money

2022-03-29

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Is the rally of the past few weeks a bonafide return of the Bull Market? Negative sentiment fostered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine set markets up for a reversal when the world didn't come to an end, and rallying mode ensued.

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Markets Stuck in Wash, Repeat, Rinse Cycle

2022-03-29

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(3/29/22) Quarter-end selling continues; how we allow psychology to affect investing decisions; what happens when inflation is artificially imposed. How debt deters economic growth. Why negativity is a contrarian indicator, and why we sold (some) stocks; Markets are in a Wash, Rinse, Repeat Cycle; Why headlines do not affect all stocks equally;

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