Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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The Upper Middle Class is Feeling the Squeeze

2022-08-03

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(8/3/22) So we may NOT be in a Recession just yet: There could be positive economic growth in the 3rd and 4th quarters, but afterwards, look out! Robinhood's layoffs could be the prelude to more upheaval in the Jobs market. The economic squeeze on the upper-middle class; Curb-feelers, Mad Max, Cali, Utah, and the Americanization of Mexico; the significance of behavior in M-2 Money Supply. The impact of debt, and changes coming from the Secure Act...

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Will July Strength Carry On to August? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-02

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(8/2/22) Markets are set to open lower today following a strong July; negative sentiment and negative positioning by managers set things up for the strong rally, similar to activity we saw back in March. Could the pattern then be replicated in August? It is now critical that markets hold support at the current 50-DMA. Historically, the month of August tends to be weaker for markets, and September isn't that great, either. Meaning, we've got about...

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When We Think the Recession Will Hit (8/2/22)

2022-08-02

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(8/2/22) Economists' historic definition of "recession" is now being challenged by social media fact-checkers; the Roberts Family meets the neighbors: diversity on parade; market commentary: What August holds for investors; ESG Investing is unraveling; how the government creates more problems than it solves; the economic cycle will take care of itself. The behavior of Treasuries: What happens when the Fed finally pivots; why analysts are...

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“Not Bad” vs “Good” | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-01

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(8/1/22) Markets have been extremely bearish, very over-sold, very bearish, and overdue for a very nice, a countertrend rally, which finally occurred in July. When markets began to come to the realization the deflation may be a bigger issue than inflation, we started to see a rotation out of Value and into Tech. That the bullish set-up that would indicate higher stock prices in the near-term. But as we move into the month of August, which is...

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August Begins: Bull or Bear?

2022-08-01

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(8/1/22) August begins with The Roberts Family in new digs (who's idea was it to move during Houston's hottest summer, ever??) What will the Fed be expected to do in their meeting this month? The Roberts' kids get their independence; shooting down the new PACT Act Spending Bill; how we got from millions to trillions; What happens when the co-pilot leaves the aircraft early; the market conundrum for bears: dealing with contrarian-indicator clients;...

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Life & Money Lessons from Ivana Trump

2022-07-30

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(7/29/22) Richard Rosso channels his inner Janet Yellen with her declaration of "no recession;" Crypto-millionaires and their luxury watches; dealing with sticky inflation. The "recovery" is over; life lessons from Ivana Trump and dealing with ageism; how to plan to age-in-place; Lotto Tickets, cheap entertainment, and funding long term care; why reverse-mortgages should be a last-case option; how to take advantage of cash.

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Fed Hikes Rates Again–What Now? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-07-28

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(7/28/22) The Fed announced a 75-bp rate hike, as expected; markets rallied on the news the Fed is removing forward guidance, and could slow the velocity of rate increases over time. Markets interpreted that as a pivot in Fed policy, preparing to go back to zero interest rates and market-supportive quantitative easing. The resulting sharp rally in an otherwise bear market belied the Pain Trade by investors, with a case of FOMO: afraid of missing...

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Welcome to the Pain Trade Zone

2022-07-28

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(7/28/22) With the Fed's announced 75-bp rate hike, investors are now in Pain Trade Territory, acting on the FOMO principal of not wanting to miss the markets' bottom when the Fed pivots. Democrats' new plan for $400-billion in government spending to be paid for by imposing a new corporate minimum income tax: The Inflation Fighting Plan, using inflationary tactics in the process. House Speaker Pelosi's husband liquidated chip maker stocks ahead of...

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Is the Bottom In for Microsoft & Google? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-07-27

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(7/27/22) There is an interesting opportunity for investors in companies that miss estimates, yet rally afterwards, despite whatever bad news has been released. Could that be the case with two giants of the S&P and NASDAQ, Microsoft and Google? Additionally, was the less-than-happy news already priced-in to these stocks? Still to be seen is whether they can hold their current bottom, and rally above their 50-DMA. Both stocks are major players...

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Will the Fed Surprise or Pivot?

2022-07-27

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(7/27/22) The Federal Reserve later today is to make an announcement about interest rates, expected to boost the overnight lending rate by 75 basis points...but could Powell & o. cave to political pressure and pivot towards a kinder, gentler interest rate? In fact, there's a reason higher interest rates are healthier for the economy and individuals' financial well-being; there is a dark side to low interest rates, which prevent the natural...

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Inventory Builds & Declining Store Traffic | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-07-26

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(7/26/22) Walmart blames inflation for a less-than-enthusiastic outlook, after previously warning about inventory builds. Monday's Q2 report underscored those concerns, as well as declining store traffic.

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The “No Recession” Myth is Nonsense

2022-07-26

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(7/26/22) Treasury Sec'y. Janet Yellen says there's no recession in sight, but yield curve performance would challenge that assessment. WalMart and UPS warnings it's no longer cheap to go to McDonald's. Watching Retailers' reports to reveal how American's are spending money.

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Who’s Right–Stocks or Bonds?| 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-07-25

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(7/25/22) Markets got a little over-extended last week, pulling back and retesting the 50-DMA without violating it. That turned previous resistance into support, broke out of the downtrend channel, and set up a row of higher lows.

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Buy Back Blackout Ends

2022-07-25

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(7/25/22) It's a busy week of earnings reporting as July comes to an end, and the lifting of the blackout on corporate stock buy backs stands to free up $11-billion of daily activity. How did Markets react to inflation of the '60's vs now?

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Recession Progression Episode (7/22/22): Market Analysis & Personal Finance commentary from RIA A…

2022-07-22

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#Markets #Money #Investing

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Will the S&P Reach 4,170? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-07-21

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(7/21/22) From a bullish standpoint, there seems to be a lot of bullish input: MACD's on a buy signal, and markets are on a defined uptrend. The next level up will be 4170 on the S&P. We've seen this before, but here come the seasonally-weak months of the year.

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Hasbro, Target, Wal-Mart’s Inventory Surpluses

2022-07-21

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(7/21/22) Will the Fed cave to inflation and pivot on its interest rate hike course--and what will the effects be on markets? Will Markets' recent bottoms hold? Negative sentiment prevails--much of the recent rally has been driven by short-selling.

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Have We Reached the Bottom Yet? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-07-20

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(7/20/22) We haven't seen investors THIS negative since 2008--does this suggest we're nearing a market bottom? This is not then: We're running the highest inflation rate in 40-years, the Fed is tightening its balance sheet AND hiking interest rates.

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Could Millennials Sink the Mortgage Market?

2022-07-20

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(7/20/22) Mortgage eman is at a 22-year low; that's not the only reason house prices are falling; technical charts on't lie. The market is own less than 20% for the year; has FOMO become FOBO--the fear of missing the bottom?

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Apple Announces Hiring Freeze–Others to Follow? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-07-19

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(7/19/22) Stocks were poised to break above the downtrend, but Apple's announcement to freeze hiring killed market momentum. Hiring freezes are the first step before layoffs--because the economy is slowing down.

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