Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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Avoiding Costly Mistakes on the FAFSA (9/15/22)

2022-09-15

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Here is an encore presentation of the September 15, 2022 Lunch & Learn on the FAFSA (Free Application for Student Financial Aid) with Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP, and Senior Risk Management Consultant, Chris Liebum. The FAFSA is a vital, first-step towards securing financial aid, either through loans or grants, for your college bound children. 1:30 - The First Step: Available Tools 2:00 - Don't Make These Four Big Mistakes 4:50 - Chris'...

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Could Oil Rally to $95-barrel?| 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-09-15

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(9/15/22) The Markets' big 4% drop in markets on news August CPI was 8.3% was the follow up to Monday's 90% upside day and the "bullish upthrust" in the market. The resulting 90% down day completely reversed markets' gains, but markets were able to hold on to the rising trendline of higher lows. Futures are weak this morning, so a test of support at last week's lows will be important today. Add to the mix next week's FOMC meeting, and the...

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How High Will Fed Rates Need to Go?

2022-09-15

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(9/15/22) Markets remain in a broad trading range, even as the Fed prepares for next week's FOMC Meeting: We're witnessing bear market behavior, grinding down investors. The VIX "fear gauge" is remarkably tame. Oil prices could rally to a range of $90-$95/bbl; Michael Lebowitz' motto shifts from "Don't Fight the Fed" to "Follow the Fed," and note its bullish- or bearish-stances. The Fed today (9/15) begins its...

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Financial Media Goes Nuts Over CPI | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-09-14

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(9/14/22) August CPI clocks-in at a hotter-than-expected 8.3%, and the financial media goes nuts, claiming yesterday's sell-off as "markets in turmoil." The reality was, yes, a big 4% sell-off, but a one-day drop that can only be compared to pre-pandemic market action in June of 2020. But more importantly, markets were able to uphold the bullish, rising trend line that has been building for the past few months. That trend will be tested...

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How CPI Will Impact Social Security COLA

2022-09-14

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(9/14/22) With the latest CPI print at 8.3%, the odds of bigger interest rate increases by the Fed just got better; markets are still within a rising bottom trendline against a declining line of bullishness: Decision time is coming this week, as volatility remains confined. Inflation actually slowed from this time last year; what if you could get more for your money? Lump-sum Pension or long-term payout? How CPI will impact Social Security COLA...

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August Was Hotter Than Expected | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-09-13

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(9/13/22) The CPI print for August came in at 8.3%, hotter than anticipated. The big question now is whether we've seen the peak of inflation? With markets now solely-dependent upon what the Fed does, rather than on fundamentals, a 75-basis point hike later this month is pretty much a lock. In fact, expectations are for the Fed to go up to 4 to 4.5% on the Fed funds rate. Slower economic growth, slower earnings growth, and higher unemployment are...

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8.3% Inflation: Thinking Ahead of the Fed

2022-09-13

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(9/13/22) All eyes are on today's CPI Report (clocking-in at 8.3% Inflation) and its effects on the economy: What are the numbers within the number, and why does it matter? What will be the Fed's response, and what will it take for the Fed to ease up on rate hikes? The dichotomy of views among Bears vs Bulls: the problem of timing and duration; after 3 Bull Markets, why are 80% of Americans still broke? The White Multi-millionaire Minority. Dealing...

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The Pain-trade is Higher | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-09-12

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(9/12/22) Markets last week rallied off support, and are now positioned to move higher with a little pain: There is a rising bullish trend line, continuing the pattern of higher lows since the July bottom. However a corresponding, declining trend line that runs right along the 200-DMA is forming a wedge which will create a short term challenge for markets. A rally to the declining trend line is the most logical course, with short term buy signals...

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The “Cash on the Sideline” Myth

2022-09-12

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(9/12/22) Markets are working off excesses; most companies are currently doing okay, CEO's hoping for a "soft landing." The rising bottoms and declining tops are creating a wedge markets will have to painfully resolve. Why there is no such thing as "cash on the sidelines," but there is a dearth of buyers or dearth of sellers. We're now seeing seller exhaustion; looking at a rally within bearish bias. Animal Sleep Patterns; the...

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The True Cost of Aging Exposed

2022-09-10

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(9/9/22) Why Meghan cannot be Queen; The Janet Yellen Economic Roadshow: taxes must return to "norms;" inflation and the "Fair" economy; energy diversification; Brookings Institute: Unemployment must go higher. Understanding the US economy in COVID; Janet Yellen's EV's; the fiscal fight; why having cash is not a bad thing; market preview: Gerber Insurance; The Elder Index & cost of Aging; demographics and changes to work...

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The Death Cross & Oil Prices | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-09-08

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(9/8/22) Markets rallied off important support on Wednesday, but failed at the 50- and 100-DMA's. However, the market did sustain the rising trend line, with sell signals still in place. This may get us to a point where markets can consolidate to provide another buying opportunity. Markets also held support at May's lows. Today's ECB rate hike announcement and the Fed's policy comments later today will affect markets--we're expecting a 75bp Fed...

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The Fed’s Currency Swap Line

2022-09-08

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(9/8/22) Markets continue through a holiday-shortened week; use any rally to reduce portfolio risk; the Fed is not backing-off its hawkish stance, but markets are holding support...so far. The Fed's hawkish talk of 75bp, with more to come, targeting the 4% range. The ECB is dealing with the same issues as the Fed, plus much higher energy costs. Dealing with the feedback-loop of central bank moves; why dollar strength is a problem for the EU; all...

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When Will Markets’ Stampede End? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-09-07

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(9/7/22) Markets always operate in either a buying- or selling-stampede, where prices rise incessantly for a period, and then seem to be in a sell-off mode forever; investors are always asking, 'when will it stop?' Example: The July lows that led to the August highs. The current selling stampede has been running for 13-days. To keep this in perspective, we're still above July's lows...there is a risk of re-testing those lows, certainly, given where...

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Should You Jump Into an EV?

2022-09-07

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(9/7/22) September markets are underway with buying and selling stampedes; use any rally to reduce risk. If you're worrying too much about your portfolio, you're holding too much risk! Looking forward, earnings expectations are still too elevated, and valuations have to come down. A side-by-side look at the ISM vs S&P PMI; geopolitical decisions affect markets. Europe is imploding over high energy costs (thanks, Vladimir!) As the US exports...

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Markets Rally Despite OPEC Production Cuts | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-09-06

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(9/6/22) Markets are set to open higher after last week's sell-off, under pressure from Fed head Jerome Powell's post-Jackson Hole speech, suggesting more rate hikes, more aggressively, are still to come. Markets tried to challenge that, until Russia threw a wrench into the works, announcing a cut off of natural gas to Europe. This morning's futures are looking higher, seeking a bit of a rally as markets remain over-sold. Continue to use these...

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What’s the Half-life of a Biden Fist-bump?

2022-09-06

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(9/6/22) The best thing about this week may be that it's only four-days long! Liz Truss is the new UK PM, already embattled; the death of BBY CEO; OPEC's production cut & the half-life of a Biden fist-bump; Russia's weaponization of natural gas to Europe; Europe's response to inflation: Do the same things again that caused it; the move from capitalism to more socialistic practices; market valuations and the shift from GAP to Forward Operating...

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Will Your Social Security Benefits be Tax-Free by 2023?

2022-09-02

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In the kind of market where bad news is good news, where do we go from here? The dark side of not allowing business cycle to complete: Recession = Bad; so the market has outrun the economy. Why the Medicare Advantage TV ads have disappeared;

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It Was a Bear Market Rally, After All | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-09-01

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(9/1/22) Cheerleaders singing the praises of a bear market bottom, bullishness abounding, and high prices for equities were back...were wrong. Turns out it was a bear market rally, after an assault on the 200-DMA failed.

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Will the Fed Start to Pay More Attention to Employment Numbers?

2022-09-01

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(9/1/22) What would happen if markets break through the 50-DMA? We're treating any market rally as an opportunity to sell and reduce equity risk; parsing Jerome Powell's post-Jackson Hole comments; bringing pain to households and businesses, and the beginning of the Price-Wage spiral; will the Fed start to pay more attention to employment numbers?

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Markets Break 50-DMA | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-31

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(8/31/22) Tuesday's Jolt Report showing stronger employment jerked markets to attention with the suggestion the Fed may become even more aggressive in its tightening strategy. However, a closer look at the employment scene reveals labor force participation rates are nothing to crow about.

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