Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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Using Good Credit to Subsidize Poor Credit

2023-04-26

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(4/27/23) The new Biden FHA Mortgage Rule will penalize borrowers with "good" credit with a 1% fee to subsidize borrowers with less-than-optimal credit, helping place them into homes they likely cannot really afford (did we not learn this lesson before??) How is this not a violation of the Fair Housing Act of 1968, and discrimination against borrowers w good credit scores? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts,...

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Will Artificial Intelligence Be the Next Industrial Revolution?

2023-04-26

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(4/26/23) The Big Debate is whether the economy is stronger than expected, owing to pockets of consumption, or if warnings from transportation sector of a slowing economy are to be heeded. The evolution of Technology and Ai: What do Tech earnings say about the economy; At work communication mis-fires: The future of working from home. Implications of Ai technology on worker productivity: What jobs cannot be replaced by Ai? Will Ai be the equivalent,...

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Investing is like Chess: Thinking One Step Ahead

2023-04-25

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(4/25/23) Joe Biden announces run for re-election, and markets continue regardless, awaiting the end of earnings season and the next Fed meeting. More importantly, what will companies say about the months ahead? Markets are stuck in mid-air; sell in April instead of May, and go away? Despite negative news and the Fed's hiking rates, markets continue to exhibit signs of stability; until employment rises, economy will remain flat. As markets defy bad...

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Upending the Fair Housing Act of 1968

2023-04-24

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(4/24/23) Earnings Season begins to wrap, as stimulus spending unwinds; when will the economic cycle trough? Earnings estimates for 2024 are starting to ratchet-up again; prepare for the weaker months of Summer; the "crash magnet" is October. The new Biden FHA Mortgage Rule will penalize borrowers with "good" credit with a 1% fee to subsidize borrowers with less-than-optimal credit, helping place them into homes they likely...

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To Roth or Not to Roth?

2023-04-22

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(4/21/23) Markets are rationalizing; this will be a White Collar Recession; economic metrics are 'whacked-out;" no "Fed Pivot" by summer: Inflation is here to stay. Twinkies are shrinking. Elon Musk & Space-X launch: Why the extreme criticism? To Roth or Not to Roth: they may not be for everyone. Lunch & Learn preview; Buc-ee Beaver archaeology. Should you avoid a Roth? labor market trends: Job losses coming in a "White...

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Word of the Day: “Rehypothecate”

2023-04-20

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(4/20/23) Regional Banks seem to be fine as their earnings reports continue to roll-out this week, indicating the turmoil created around SVB and Credit Suisse were a one-off event, and not necessarily a systemic crisis. The interesting correlation between risk-on/risk-off rotation and market performance; we're looking for companies with poor earnings but good stock performance. Is the Worst behind us? Markets remain entrenched in a bullish trend....

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Could the Markets Run Out of Gas?

2023-04-19

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(4/19/23) Despite the past "rolling disasters" repeatedly hitting markets, the bullish mood persists. Could markets run out of gas? A normal, 10% correction is not out of the question. How the Government is wasting your tax dollars; the most important strategies for Retirees now; how higher interest rates are impacting retirement, both good and bad. What does retirement even look like, anymore? Locking in returns w Treasuries at higher...

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There’s No Such Thing as ‘Money on the Sidelines’

2023-04-18

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(4/18/23) Banks boost stocks as earnings season continues; markets remain in a trading range. Expect a pullback. Volatility Index (VIX) significantly down, closing Monday at 17. Rolling Recession vs The Big Event. Mounds of Cash: Who really owns it? Where does it come from (and where does it go)? The explosion of Money Market Funds in 2020: There is no such thing as "money on the sidelines." In the markets, for every buyer there is a...

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What’s New with Social Security This Year?

2023-04-17

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Here is an encore presentation of the April 13, 2023 Lunch & Learn on What's New w Social Security?, with RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, with Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP. ------- 0:00 - Intro/Preview 2:16 - Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) 5:02 - Earnings Testing 8:56 -Taxable Earnings Cap 12:07 - Taxation of SS Benefits 17:47 - New Required Minimum Distributions (RMD) 20:56 - How to Head-off Taxes on...

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Why Hasn’t the Fed Panicked Yet?

2023-04-17

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(4/17/23) Earnings Season is underway, and the reports we receive from regional banks could reveal a more accurate picture of the economy from a localized perspective. CEO Confidence was not good at the end of 2022; what will Q-1 statements reflect? Markets continue trend of bottoming higher: Why? Liz Ann Sonders/Charles Schwab posits we are seeing a "rolling recession" instead of a sudden, bottom fall out recession. Why hasn't the Fed...

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Is Social Security About to Go Bankrupt?

2023-04-14

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(4/14/23) Big Banks quarterly reporting headlines today's financial news; what's the best use for a brick & mortar bank in your personal finances? The challenges to small businesses, CPI stickiness means no Fed pivot. Refinancing Treasueries will expose more cracks in the economy with higher cost of debt. Why this will be a "White-collar Recession." the OAISD Report on Social Security solvency; France' pension protests, and the...

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The De-Dollarization of Reserve Currency

2023-04-13

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(4/13/23) March Inflation seemed to soften, but a look at core inflation metrics shows higher prices are still pretty sticky, providing no evidence the Fed will be inclined to pause rate hikes, much less cut rates. FOMC minutes reveal discussion of a "mild" recession. That's like being "mildly" dead. The significance of the NASDAQ being where it was 2-years ago: No gains. The March CPI Report: Nothing Burger or ham on rye?...

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Why Are Banks Losing Money on Mortgages?

2023-04-12

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(4/12/23) With many investors heavily shorted in the market, today's Inflation Report could spell success or failure (CPI clocked-in at a cooler-than-expected 5% rate of inflation, year over year). Chances for volatility are high in today's trading session as markets near the upper end of the current rally. Oil price increases have yet to appear in CPI numbers, generally three months behind. Gold is very over-bought. NASDAQ is overbought. A...

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Will Inflation Weaken Enough to Cause a Fed Pause?

2023-04-11

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(4/11/23) Lots of Fed speakers are on deck this week, along with data releases with the latest measure of inflation: Will numbers indicate a weakening sufficient to cause the Fed to pause rate hikes? Markets continue to do well; why we trimmed out positions in the NASDAQ; Why did PC sales take a dive? Markets may be a bit ahead of reality. Why a lack of bullishness in the markets is a good thing; markets returns expectations vs reality; avoiding...

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What a Fed Rate Cut Would Really Mean

2023-04-10

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(4/10/23) Anticipated data in the week ahead should bolster the position of the Fed in not cutting interest rates anytime soon; labor participation rates are still not up to pre-pandemic levels; inflationary pressures on markets remain. Markets are betting on no recession and the Fed to cut rates, but fail to recognize the ramifications of the Fed needing to cut rates. "Millennial" ratings season begins: Everyone gets a trophy. S&P...

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Social Security Changes You Need to Know (4/7/23)

2023-04-06

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(4/7/23) There are some coming adjustments to Social Security earnings thresholds about which retirees or near-retirees should be aware. Danny and Rich also discuss the benefits of beloning...to the Senior Citizens' League. The Great Un-Retirement and marge & Janet close the show. Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer...

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Did the Fed Put Too Much Money in the System?

2023-04-06

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(4/6/23) Why do Jobless Claims Matter? What do to about Gold? Chipotle's Peppergate and Bud Light's marketing gaffe: No such thing as "bad ink?" The CitiGroup Economic Surprise Index is on the rise: Data is coming in stronger-than-expected, which is not such a surprise considering all the doom and gloom last year. Analysts are optimistic, but first signs of trouble may show up in Jobless numbers; Markets may not be a strong as thought...

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Did the Fed Just Float a Rate Hike Trial Balloon?

2023-04-05

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(4/5/23) Markets sell-off, as predicted; Jobs data disappoints, with more to come from ADP & Labor Dept.: Could this be the first cracks in economic data? Market dichotomy of good performance with weak economic data. Are markets predicting a turn? Why are markets rallying on hopes of a Fed pivot (and what such pivot would indicate about the economy)? Markets are resting on support, retesting the 50-DMA. Why do majority of Gen-Z get their news...

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Don’t Be Foolish About Long Term Care (4/1/23)

2023-04-04

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27:54 -(4-1-23) Long term Care is a hot topic, with lots of twists and turns. This is The One Topic about which we regularly receive lots of questions. Danny and Rich go through the basics and some of the details about Long Term Care costs, coverages, and concerns. 0:00 - Intro/Disclaimer/Agenda 2:12 - What is Long Term Care? 3:20 - What Qualifies as Long Term Care? 5:48 - Long Term Care Realities 9:10 - RIA's Financial Guardrails for LTC 14:14 -...

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Was October’s Low the Markets’ Bottom? .

2023-04-04

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(4/4/23) The Credit Suisse shareholders' meeting is not likely to be a fun one. Markets are showing signs of exhaustion; there's nothing much standing in the way (do far) of markets achieving 4,200, despite contrary economic conditions. Markets have continued to establish higher lows since October. What to do when Climate Activists break-in to your house. Opposing market views & psychological biases. How personal biases affect investment...

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