Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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Navigating Markets with Care: Insights from Lance Roberts – The Real Investment Show

2024-04-15

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In today's fast-paced financial world, moving cautiously in the markets has never been more crucial. Join Lance Roberts as he delves into the current state of the market and the significance of liquidity. - Understanding the rapid movements in today's market - The importance of cautious investing in an unpredictable environment - Evaluating the current liquidity conditions of the market - Insights on how liquidity can impact market...

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How Tax Season Influences the Stock Market Annually – The Real Investment Show

2024-04-15

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Discover how tax season influences the stock market in our latest deep dive on the Real Investment Show with Lance Roberts. Unpack financial trends with us as we explore the April market bump phenomenon. - Exploring the annual impact of tax season on the stock market - Historical analysis of stock market trends during tax season - Understanding the typical rise in the market towards the latter half of April - Key factors that support the...

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4-15-24 Cracks Appear In The Market’s Bullish Armor

2024-04-15

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Tax Day woes and audit fears; earnings season commences; What are companies saying? No corporate buybacks, removing major buyers of assets; pay attention to companies' guidance. Markets last week failed at 20-DMA, and tested 50-DMA as momentum slowed. Is not the time to sell? Use any bounce to rebalance risk, but avoid any knee-jerk reactions. Could this be a "buy-the-dip moment?" Lance's favorite bowl is like the market: There's a...

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4-12-24 How to Deal with Financial Stress

2024-04-12

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CFP testing results & commentary on professional credentialing; the importance of the Health/Wealth connection; the importance of continuing education (CE); a brief history of JP Morgan and "too big to fail." Inflation is permatory, not transitory. Profit margins are not great because costs are up. Jerome Powell is trying to put out a fire with a water pistol; how many ate cuts now? There is still too much money in the system to...

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Immigration And Its Impact On Employment

2024-04-12

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2024-04-12

Is immigration why employment reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) continue defying mainstream economists’ estimates? Many are asking this question as the U.S. experiences a flood of immigrants across the southern border.

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4-11-24 Is Inflation Too Hot to Handle?

2024-04-11

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Having risen by about 40% since last October, Gold is on a moonshot. Many investment professionals consider gold prices to be a macro barometer, measuring the level of anxiety in the economy, inflation, currency, and geopolitics. So what is and isn’t driving the price of gold higher? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Is...

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4-10-24 Can Social Security Be Saved?

2024-04-10

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It's CPI Day (with m/m inflation clocking in with a .4% increase, and a y/y gain to 3.8%, hotter than expected). Sheila Jackson-Lee's science experiment; the NFIB Survey does not bode well for small businesses:Sentiment falls to a new low based on poor sales. There remains a dichotomy between headline economic news and what's happening behind the scenes. Markets break below the 20-DMA, but regain support. Why what really matters is the data the Fed...

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Is Gold Warning Us Or Running With The Markets?

2024-04-10

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2024-04-10

Having risen by about 40% since last October, Gold is on a moonshot. Many investment professionals consider gold prices to be a macro barometer, measuring the level of anxiety in the economy, inflation, currency, and geopolitics.

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4-9-24 Margin Debt Surges As Bulls Leverage Bets

2024-04-09

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Margin debt levels have surged as bullish investors leverage their bets in the equity market. The increase in leverage is not surprising, as it represents increased risk-taking by investors in the stock market. Unsurprisingly, as consumer confidence improves, so does the speculative demand for equities. As stock markets improve, the “fear of missing out” becomes more prevalent. Such boosts demand for equities, and as prices rise, investors take on...

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Is the Inflation Scare Over-Blown?

2024-04-08

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Eclipse-mania is out of control. Fed speakers confirm they'll cut rates, but in no rush to do so. Jobs numbers tantalize markets; the impact of immigration on employment. Boomers & Gen-Z plans to splurge on groceries in 2024. Markets takeout the 20-DMA; will the break be confirmed this week? Putting Inflation into proper perspective; the three measures of inflation. The economic basics of Supply & Demand (and their impact on inflation)....

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Are You Really Ready for Tax Day?

2024-04-05

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It's the Financial Fitness Friday episode of The Real Investment Show, hosted by RIA Advisors Senior Financial Advisors, Danny Ratliff, CFP, and Jonathan McCarty, CFA, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Japans Lost Decades: Are We On The Same Path" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/japans-lost-decades-are-we-on-the-same-path/ "Market Corrections Matter More Than You...

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Is America Mirroring Japan’s Lost Decades?

2024-04-04

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In this week's Fedapolooza, Fed spokespersons seem to be growthin less hawkish about rates. Inflation is simply a function of supply & demand. There is a high correlation between GDP/CPI and interest rates. When inflation comes down, so will rates. Watching tomorrow's employement report: ADP is a poor predictor of BLS data. The Bernie Madoff trendline remains intact in markets; bullish sentiment is very high; bear sightings on Wall Street are...

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Could Powell Eclipse Market Expectations?

2024-04-03

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The JOLTS survey rate continues to slow, coincident with a slowing economy; interestingly, retail hiring has dropped sharply, despite increased retail demand (another example of divergent indicators). The data might not be as strong as we think. The difference between Fed promises and predictions can be vast. Markets remain in a "perfect" trend channel; what happens when the 20-DMA is broken? Commentary on the coming solar eclipse, and...

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Market Corrections Matter More Than You Think

2024-04-02

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Markets delivered a post-April Fool's drop, while manufacturing metrics moved back into the expansion zone. Markets have now dropped the chances of a June interest rate cut to 50%; markets continue to trade in a particular range. The April 15 Tax Day bump may not materialize this year with the expiration of previous tax law. Gold is on a catch-up trade; will rotation trades continue? Investor sentiment remains high. The bullishness of Ken Fisher;...

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What To Look For in Q1 Earnings

2024-04-01

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PCE Inflation is weaker, yet consumer spending remains robust; the Atlanta Fed is forecasting 2.3% GDP for Q2. Is this period nirvana for the Fed? The Relative Strength Index is stuck at 70. Markets continue a low-volatility advance, seemingly floating higher. The current environment typically leads to market correction. The next round of earnings commences next week; it will be unsurprising that to see a high percentage of companies “beat” Wall...

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When Financial Conditions Butt Heads With Borrowing Conditions

2024-03-28

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If Fed Chairman Jerome Powell doesn’t appreciate the difference between financial and borrowing conditions, we must assume most investors do not either. The current combination of easy financial conditions and tight borrowing conditions makes monetary policy difficult for the Fed to balance. At times, like today, financial and borrowing conditions can be at odds with each other, which makes the Fed’s job of managing monetary policy more...

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Wall Street Wants to Save Your Retirement

2024-03-27

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The Sentiment Index is hanging in, despite weakening regional surveys; economists see no recession in sight; bank reserves have been rising since October 2022. End of quarter rebalancing is generating some activity; after three-days of selling, market futures are positive this morning. Watch markets' steep angle of ascent; this is not sustainable, and correction will result sooner or later. Lance's unique inflation indicator... Markets still act...

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Do Technical Measures and Valuations Really Matter?

2024-03-26

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Baltimore Harbor is closed following the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, hit by an out of control freighter. Weaker Regional Economic Surveys are in contrast to economists ratcheting-up growth expectations: No one is expecting a recession. Liquidity continues to boost bullish mood on Wall Street. The market has steadily climbed for past 5-months, creating record deviations; for now, no fear. Valuations are a measure of market psychology:...

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Are Market Bubbles a Function Of Psychology?

2024-03-25

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There are three components of a “market bubble.” The first two, price and valuation, often get dismissed or rationalized during the inflation phase. That rationalization is due to investor psychology and the “Fear Of Missing Out (F.O.M.O.) Stop the re-makes of '80's movies (Roadhouse)! Markets are going into 5th straight month of gains, remaining over-bought and trading in a very narrowly-defined trend channel. Money going into cryptocurrency...

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Beware the Risks in Medicare Advantage Plans 2024

2024-03-22

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What do the Three Stooges and the Fed's rate cut plans have in common? Risk appetites are on the rise with the Reddit IPO; what if inflation heats up and the Fed cannot cut rates? We're living in a government-driven economy. The challenges to withdrawal rates: Goal-harvesting. Goal shifting when retirement guardrails change. The Reddit IPO: Let the euphoria burn away. Risks to Medicare Advantage plans in 2024: Pre-existing clauses. We now have to...

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