Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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10-2-25 Who Needs the BLS:? Shutdown Silences Jobs Report

2025-10-02

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The government shutdown has silenced the Bureau of Labor Statistics, leaving investors without the monthly jobs report. But does Wall Street really need the BLS to keep moving? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explore what happens when government labor data goes missing, how traders adapt, and what alternative indicators might offer clues about the state of the economy. Lance and Mike also examine valuation metrics in the markets, and discuss...

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A Dollar Reversal Could Halt The Gold Bull

2025-10-02

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2025-10-02

In Monday’s Commentary, we alerted readers that the dollar could be setting up for a reversal higher. Furthermore, we noted that if such a turn comes to fruition, some investors may encounter surprises. To wit: As such, investors should examine their portfolios for risks that have developed with the reversal of the previously overbought dollar, to …

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AI Boom: This Time Is Different… Or Is It?

2025-10-01

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AI is undoubtedly transformative, but massive spending and debt-fueled deals, such as $ORCL $300B investment with OpenAI, reveal a circular flow of money between $ORCL, $NVDA, & OpenAI that bears a striking resemblance to the dot-com bubble. In this short video, I explain why current expectations likely exceed what AI companies can realistically deliver. Full episode: ?si=T7XTri40KAdGXnO4 Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show:...

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10-1-25 Government Shutdown Begins: What It Means for Markets & Investors {REVISED*]

2025-10-01

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The U.S. government shutdown has officially started. What does this mean for the economy, markets, and your investments? Lance Roberts covers the immediate fallout from the shutdown on federal spending, workers, and services ; how markets have historically reacted during shutdowns—and what to expect this time; the risk to GDP, delayed economic data releases, and consumer confidence. This shutdown is more than politics—it’s a real test for the...

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Kimonos For Bitcoin: 150 Year Old Company Goes Crypto

2025-10-01

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2025-10-01

In a bold and unusual pivot, a traditional Japanese manufacturer of Kimonos is transitioning to a cryptocurrency treasury company. Marusho Hotta, which has been manufacturing kimonos since 1861, will rebrand as the Bitcoin Japan Corporation. The transformation stems from a June acquisition by Bakkt Holdings (BKKT), which took a controlling stake in the company to …

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Miran Says Rates Are Too High: Politics Or Reality?

2025-10-01

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2025-10-01

Stephen Miran, Donald Trump's recent addition to the Fed, joined the Federal Reserve the day before the last meeting. At that meeting, he was the only dissenting vote, supporting a 50-basis-point rate cut. All other members voted for a 25-basis-point cut. Additionally, Miran is likely the FOMC participant who thinks the Fed Funds rate should …

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9/30/25 The Truth About Government Shutdowns

2025-09-30

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A government shutdown is likely but not catastrophic, as the media portrays it. In this Short video, I break down what actually happens when the government shuts down. Full episode: https://www.youtube.com/live/OAZFiVQoJYU?si=tD3sA1GaxNZdAMrp Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow e

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9-30-25 Why Do We Invest? 10 Powerful Reasons Explained

2025-09-30

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Why do we invest? The answer goes far beyond just making money. Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn, Two Dads on Money, break down the most important reasons people put their money to work in the markets. Lance and Jon also show why investing is not just for Wall Street professionals—it’s for everyone. Whether you’re just starting out or refining your long-term strategy, this episode will give you a clear framework for why investing is essential...

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The Government Is Shutting Down Again: Who Cares?

2025-09-30

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2025-09-30

If Congress can’t come to a budget resolution in the next 24 hours, the government will shut down. Sound familiar? We have become numb to the prospect of a government shutdown because it occurs so frequently. Most often, continuing resolution bills are agreed upon before a shutdown, thus enabling the government to continue operating. In …

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9/26/25 2026 Growth Expectations Are Ahead of Reality

2025-09-29

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Wall Street expects a broad earnings rebound (beyond MAG7) in 2026, but the data says otherwise. In this short video, I discuss why hopes for strong economic growth—without stimulus, with weakening leading indicators, and with the yield curve still inverted—are ahead of reality.

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9/29/25 Is the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) Flashing Caution? [REVISED*]

2025-09-29

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Lance Roberts examines one of the most reliable technical analysis tools investors use to measure market risk: the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI helps identify when markets are overbought, oversold, or diverging from price action. While RSI is not a perfect “buy or sell” signal, it is a powerful guardrail for risk management. History shows that overbought conditions can persist much longer than expected, but when momentum fades,...

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RSI (Relative Strength Index): Timing The Next Correction

2025-09-29

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2025-09-29

In the world of technical analysis, there is one reliable indicator for measuring market risk. The relative strength index (RSI) measures overextension (in either direction). Developed by J. Welles Wilder in 1978, the RSI is a momentum oscillator. As such, it measures the velocity and magnitude of price changes, plotting those on a scale from 0 …

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Myth Busting: Foreigners Are Selling Treasuries

2025-09-29

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2025-09-29

There appears to be a frequently repeated myth on social media that foreigners are selling US Treasury bonds in large quantities. Often, the myth is supported by the belief that certain foreign governments, such as China, Japan, and Saudi Arabia, are rapidly selling down their US Treasury securities. Concerns about trade deficits, inflation, and geopolitical …

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Markets Detached From Economic Fundamentals

2025-09-27

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2025-09-27

At a Glance Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you'd like us to cover in a future newsletter? Email: [email protected] Follow & DM on X: @LanceRoberts Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next week’s issue!

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Defensive Rotation? Energy Stocks on the MoveThe Real Investment Show

2025-09-26

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Energy stocks $XLE are breaking out, even as oil remains flat near $64. In this short video, I explain why a bullish golden cross and rising strength point to a potential defensive rotation from $SPY / $QQQ. Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow

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9-26-25 College Planning 2025 – FAFSA, Scholarships, & Smart Funding Tips

2025-09-26

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College planning season is here — and the last quarter of 2025 brings critical deadlines for students and parents. Jonathan Penn and Sarah Buenger break down what you need to know about FAFSA, scholarships, and smart funding strategies for higher education. 🎓 Topics Covered: Applications: Why applying to multiple in-state schools boosts negotiating power. FAFSA 2025–26: Key deadlines, why it’s required (even if you don’t qualify for aid), and...

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Slowdown Signals: Are Leading Indicators Flashing Red?

2025-09-26

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2025-09-26

Lately, there’s been a growing sense of confidence among investors that the U.S. economy has dodged the proverbial bullet. Despite a historic rate-hiking cycle by the Federal Reserve, two years of stubborn inflation, and signs of strain in global trade, the dominant Wall Street narrative is now a curious mix of “soft landing,” “no landing,” …

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Is Nvidia Recycling Profits?

2025-09-26

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2025-09-26

Several articles and social media posts have recently discussed the irregular partnerships that Nvidia is forming with some of its clients. The gist of the story is that Nvidia is investing in its clients, who then use the funds to buy Nvidia chips. This is what CNBC stated in a headline on Wednesday. This is … Continue reading »

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9/25/25 Accommodative Or Restrictive? Decoding The Fed’s Latest Move

2025-09-25

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The Federal Reserve’s latest move has investors asking: Is policy turning more accommodative or staying restrictive? Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz decode the Fed’s decision, cut through the jargon, and explain what it means for markets, rates, and your money. We’ll cover: What the Fed actually signaled last week The difference between accommodative and restrictive policy How markets typically react to these shifts Key risks for stocks,...

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Pfizer Tries To Fatten Its Profits With Weight Loss Drugs

2025-09-25

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2025-09-25

Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NOVO) dominate the market for weight loss drugs. The monopoly has proven incredibly profitable for both companies. Consider that in the last quarter, LLY reported that $8.58 billion of its $15.56 billion in total revenue came from its two GLP-1 weight loss drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound. Even a greater percentage …

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