Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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What Does the Fed Know It’s Not Telling Us?

2023-11-17

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What does the Fed know that they're not telling the rest of us? Comparing 2016-19 to now: The Fed managed rate changes and the lag effect, saving the hedge funds. What happens in an economy dependent upon credit? Higher rates creating stress in the system. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The Full show from which this segment is excerpted is here:...

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Dave Ramsey is Wrong About Retirement Withdrawal Rates

2023-11-17

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(11/24/23)Withdrawal Rates & Recency Bias: Why Dave Ramsey is wrong about withdrawal rates. MorningStar: Dealing with higher fixed-income rates: not here to stay. Why the 4% Withdrawal Rate is back...for now. Sequence of Returns & Guaranteed Income when the withdrawal rate is not constant. NOTE: This presentation includes video originally lost due to technical issues on the day the show was originally streamed. 0:00 - Teaser 1:03 -...

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Definining “Safe” Retirement Spending: Is the 4% Rule Back? (11/17/23)

2023-11-17

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(11/17/23) Richard Rosso's adventures in Houston traffic, market seasonality and stock-bond correlation: Why would the Fed cut interest rates now? WalMart's results: What are companies going to do during deflation? Richard calls the Butterball Turkey Hotline; spending survey results for 2023 & Consumer Sentiment indexes: Why are American's still spending? The WalMart Parking Lot Indicator. Withdrawal Rates & Recency Bias: Why Dave Ramsey is...

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The Fed’s Conundrum

2023-11-17

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(11/23/22) Recession will occur when employment turns sour. Fed guidance to markets: Not saying anything for a while, positioning to be "right," regardless of outcome. Why would the Fed cut rates? That's the Fed's conundrum. What does the Fed know that they're not telling the rest of us? Comparing 2016-19 to now: The Fed managed rate changes and the lag effect, saving the hedge funds. What happens in an economy dependent upon credit?...

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The Year of The Magnificent Seven

2023-11-16

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(11/16/23) This will be The Year of the Magnificent Seven--those dominant stocks that have powered the markets, responsible for 112% of this year's gains. Markets are working through earnings season; Target & WalMart: A tale of Two Retailers. Markets are returning to overbought conditions, ripe for a pullback. Best opportunities to add exposure will likely be post-Thanksgiving. The problem with easing financial conditions for the Fed: heighten...

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The Fed IS Done (11/15/23)

2023-11-15

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(11/15/23) Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Oil Prices Under Pressure" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Recession Fears Return as Bond Rates Drop"...

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Is the Economy Slowing More than We Know?

2023-11-14

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(11/14/23) This is the last, full week of trading before the holidays hit; What will drive today's CPI number: Home owners' equivalent rent. Can the S&P exceed Friday's high? Markets are turning resistance into support, still no the backs of large cap companies; market is bifurcated vs mid- and small-cap companies. Oil Prices are under pressure; Gold is trading in a flat range. Markets are shrugging off bad news; spending bill needs to be done...

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Recession Fears Return as Bond Rates Drop

2023-11-13

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(11/13/23) Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investing Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Testing 100-DMA" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "What's Up with Bonds?" &list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=9s --------...

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Talkin’ Turkey About Your Money

2023-11-10

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Richard and Danny take it back to the Old School way, answering live Q&A. (disclaimer) 1:04 - It's been a tough August, September, October: historical implications of a negative quarter. You really cannot get all-in or all-out of markets. Positioning portfolios for where money will be going. 4:19 - How we do that voodoo that we do: Sell rules & stop losses. 7:25 - The frustration of current market environment. 11:30 - Allocation and Risk...

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What Would You Give Up (to ensure SS is around for you)? (11/10/23)

2023-11-10

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(11/10/23) It's the Financial Fitness Friday edition of The Real Investment Show w RIA Advisors' Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, and Senior Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP. Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Testing 100-DMA" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 And here's Wednesday's "Before the...

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What Will Powell’s Words Mean for Bonds? (11/9/23)

2023-11-09

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(11/9/23) Markets continue their winning ways, elongating a string of positive closes; Fed Chair Jerome Powell is slated to speak today: What effect will his words have on Bonds? Why do the debt and deficits matter so much now? (Keep in mind the narrative...) Have financial conditions eased or reversed? What will the Fed do next? Meanwhile, Markets to test resistance at 100-DMA. How Robinhood lost its luster, and why there should be commissions on...

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Should You Borrow from Your 401k Plan? (11/8/23)

2023-11-08

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(11/8/23) Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will Markets Retest Today?" is here: -NOraPNew&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Why You Cannot Invest Like Warren Buffett" -XJZYY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe...

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Is This the End of the Bond Bear Market?

2023-11-07

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(11/7/23) How did WeWork go from $47-B to Bankruptcy? Beware the days' 'narrative of the moment' in interest rates, AI. Market performance ahead, pre- and post-Thanksgiving. Is the Bond Bear market dead or just hibernating? Are bon yields doing the Fed's dirty work now? WeWork is a symptom. Yields are a function of debt and economic growth = Bond Math. Don't be distracted by the media. Why the Fed wants higher rates; the risk of recession in 2024:...

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Why You Cannot Invest Like Warren Buffett

2023-11-06

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(11/6/23) Friday's employment report was weaker than expected, as expected; there's always no recession in sight...until it is. How long will it take for the lag effect to appear? Black Friday preview; market rallied to 6% after previous week of disappointment. Markets ran through resistance, and are now over bought; looking at Bonds' tough year. The Fed says yields are doing its work; there's no safe place to hide. Consumer confidence is key, and...

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What if Your Financial Plan Fails?

2023-11-03

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(11/3/23) What will Jerome Powell & Co do next? (We consult the Fed 8-bal.) Real Inflation is not going down; real wages have been negative for the past two years. The Markets is not the Economy. Apple earnings & China's recession; the de-globalization process: How to plan & prepare? Making money w/cash. Candid Coffee preview; making tough financial decisions: We're not here to make you feel good. Nana Rosso, "Russ" Rosso...

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The Fed. Is. Done.

2023-11-02

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(11/2/23) (11/2/23) Childrens' birthdays & the circle of life; after three good days of rally, markets are close to triggering a buy signal; what markets need is to surpass and maintain levels at 200-DMA. Still to come: ADP & Jobs reports, which do not jive. The run up in Gold (thanks, Hamas) and the coming spin down in BitCoin: Take profits now. Earnings preview, and a review of Jerome Powell's non-news: Holding rates firm, with the...

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What’s Making this Market Correction So Confusing? (11/1/23)

2023-11-01

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(11/1/23) Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Monday Market Rally: Was It Trick or Treat?" is here: _CU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Wrapping Up October"...

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Was Yesterday’s Rally a Trick or Treat? (10/31/23)

2023-10-31

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(10/30/23) Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Over-sold Markets are Under Pressure" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Reaching Your Hurdle Rate" &list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1...

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Wrapping Up October

2023-10-30

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(10/30/23) Pre-Halloween & Candy Inflation, Pre-Fed Meeting; SoFi Banjk tightening lending restrictions; forecasts for negative Q4 growth; small businesses now having difficulty getting cash/loans. Markets took out support at 200-DMA; look for a reflexive rally, likely following this week's Fed meeting. Texas' Seasons & Mrs. Roberts' blankets; earnings season, Microsoft vs Google: Companies being penalized for slightest flaws; stock have...

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Reaching Your Hurdle Rate

2023-10-27

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(10/27/23) Market Futures & Fed Meeting preview; consensus is no rate hike in November, but possible in December. Dealing w Halloween candy inflation, controlling risk by utilizing bonds; planning to achieve your "hurdle rate." Planning for when you can retire; when do investment dollar reach "critical mass?" How to restructure assets for tax advantages. Roth Conversions: Why they're not for everyone. What is the...

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