Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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Who’s Afraid of the Yield Curve?

2022-03-23

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(3/23/22) Lance's mystery Peppermint Patty source; investor sentiment remains negative, but there are technically constructive signs providing portfolio relief; concerns over geopolitics, energy, and food shortages are valid, but they're driving emotional responses by investors. Yield Curves and the story Bonds are telling; the impact of higher rates on pensions; you could be working for free; the reality of retirement now; the consequences of poor...

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Is It Time to Buy Bonds Yet? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-03-22

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(3/22/22) Maybe not yet, but we're probably getting close: The Fed this week has said it'll need to raise rates faster than previously thought because of rampant inflation. We might get a 50-basis point hike in May because of persistent inflation they didn't see coming (they also didn't see a war between Russia and Ukraine.)

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Sanctions Stink, but Markets Perform Despite Geopolitics

2022-03-22

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(3/22/22) Markets continue to perform remarkably, despite geopolitical distractions and Fed meddling; there seems to be no demand destruction from high energy prices. Yet. The conundrum is markets' readiness to rally amidst negative sentiment.

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6 percent Market Rally – Markets Over-bought | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-03-21

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(3/21/22) Markets rallied an astounding 6% last week, coming off an over-sold, very negative sentiment scenario--which was the perfect set-up for a counter-trend rally. Our advice was to use such a rally to rebalance risk. Did you? The Fed's 25-basis points rate hike, and Friday's quadruple witching deadline, which spurred activity, gave markets the lift necessary to rise into the 200-DMA, which will be challenging resistance this morning.

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Why Today’s Inflation is Not Like the ’70’s

2022-03-21

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(3/21/22) Markets decided to goose the index 6% while we're on vacation, and the Fed raises rates 25-basis points, as expected. Cash is now trash, thanks to inflation; why this is not like the '70's. The Greatest Generation and American Manufacturing strength; why CNN is wrong about solving inflation; Permanent DST, Congress' stealth pay raise, Bloomberg's $300k inflation threshold; the Fed is expected to continue to raise interest rates.

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Market Perspective Is Important To Avoid Mistakes

2022-03-16

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2022-03-16

Market perspective is essential in avoiding investing mistakes. With CNBC airing “Markets In Turmoil” every time the market dips, it’s no wonder investor sentiment is now the lowest we have seen financial crisis lows.

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Yes, We’re on Vacation This Week!

2022-03-14

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Even a work-a-holic like Lance needs to take a break now and then. Please visit our website at https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/podcasts/ for easy access to all of our media productions. We'll see you back here Monday morning, March 21, at 6:06am CDT. ➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live daily on our Youtube Channel:...

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How to Include Inflation in Your Retirement Planning

2022-03-12

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(3/11/22) Markets are in a coiled-spring state, like the bear in "The Revenant," waiting to pounce. What the Fed says next week could change everything--one way or the other. Why not solve the Russian-Ukraine War with a cage match between Putin and Zelensky? The money lessons we teach our kids should be taken to heart by adults. The importance of including inflation in retirement planning cannot be under emphasized. How we're handling...

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Outsized Rallies Continue to Fail | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-03-10

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(3/10/22) The NASDAQ chalked up a 3% gain, and he S&P bounded nearly as much in the biggest one-day gain we've seen in a while. But even with this volatile behavior, markets have been in a consistent decline since January. The out-sized rallies have continued to fail--a hallmark of the correctional process. Below the surface of the average, individual companies are recording losses of up to 30- and 40% off their peaks. The S&P is being...

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Who’s Really to Blame for High Energy Prices?

2022-03-10

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(3/10/22) Next Week's Fed Meeting and monetary policy are front and center...but tightening is already occurring, thanks to higher energy prices. Will the Fed back off inflationary stance--and protect financial markets, or go full-speed ahead with higher interest rates? The Amazon 20:1 stock split AND $10-B stock buy-back--a defacto move for larger companies. Who's really to blame for high energy prices? The consequences of virtue signaling and...

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FAFSA Season: How to Avoid Mistakes that Could Cost You Money

2022-03-09

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Parents of upper-level high school and college students should be well into the college planning phase of life. The FAFSA is an essential part of planning for college expenses, and one incorrect answer could cost you money, time, and opportunity. RIA Advisors Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP, and Senior Risk Management Consultant, Chris Liebum, LUTCF, share insights and advice for successfully maneuvering through the financial aid maze associated...

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Equities Markets Opening Strong…Commodities, meh

2022-03-09

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(3/9/22) Oil prices on Tuesday spiked on expectations of sanctions on Russian oil, and as it came to pass, oil futures dropped 2%. Oil had been over-sold by more than three standard deviations, so a pullback was not unexpected. An oil price correction back down to $100/bbl would not be surprising, as a re-test of the 50-DMA--and that could set oil prices to go even higher, still. But high prices are the cure for high prices, and that dynamic is...

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Did Ukraine Eliminate COVID?

2022-03-09

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(3/9/22) The news moves markets, and as the Russian invasion of Ukraine remains in the headlines, COVID has been all but eliminated! After sanctions on Russian oil were put in place, oil futures shed 2%. NFIB Survey shows sentiment waning, wage expectations falling, and anticipated sales down. The Fed bet: raise rates or hold firm? Nickel trading suspended until Friday; what then? Manipulation of commodities markets--nothing new. Markets' next...

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How to use Rallies to Lower Risk | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-03-08

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(3/8/22) Markets sold off on Monday, breaking through support all the way back to October's levels. Markets are not yet on a sell-signal, and not really all that over-sold--meaning, there's still some downside risk with which to be reckoned. We will likely re-test the intra-day lows established when Russia invaded Ukraine. Sentiment remains negative--the CNN Fear & Greed gauge is in the "extreme fear" category. This would suggest we...

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Is Recession on the Way?

2022-03-08

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(3/8/22) The cost of filling your tank just got real, and it's effectively pulling liquidity out of the market, and slowing down economic growth. Earnings Estimates are too optimistic with consumers having less to spend as a result of higher energy costs. This could bring on Recession before the end of the year. Just because NASDAQ has declined 20% does not make it a bear market--it's the trend that counts. We're primed for a reflexive rally. Do...

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How to Control Your Emotions During Market Turmoil | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-03-07

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(3/7/22) Why be invested now, with all the turmoil in the world? Controlling your emotions will help you avoid making mistakes with long-term disadvantages. While markets have started 2022 with a 10% decline (normal in any year), investor anchoring can skew your view: when compared to the all-time highs of October 2021, today's markets are only off by about 3%. The reality is that markets really haven't gone anywhere since last October. The...

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Crude Oil Price Inflation Isn’t Over

2022-03-07

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(3/7/22) It might take a short-term loan for your next fill-up: Crude Oil price inflation isn't over; are we seeing the death of ESG investing in the face of fiscal reality? The flaw in investor anchoring--and market perspective. Why high oil prices are essentially tightening money supply; the true cause of inflation, per Milton Friedman (it's Washington's fault); Word of the Day: "Slowbalization." There are two sides to every...

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Saving Money in Inflationary Times

2022-03-04

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(3/4/22) Girl Scout Cookie Season returns with a vengeance; selling techniques & economic impact. Market performance continues to baffle,. Why is everyone's side-job selling Real Estate? the importance of teaching kids the value of money and delayed gratification; money saving lessons for today from the Great Depression: eliminating recurring charges, lowering credit card rates, paying with cash, keeping up with automobile maintenance, Raising...

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Hiking Rates Into Peak Valuations Is A Mistake

2022-03-04

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2022-03-04

Hiking rates into a wildly overvalued market is potentially a mistake. So says Bank of America in a recent article. Optimists expecting the stock market to weather the rate-hike cycle as they’ve done in the past are missing one important detail, according to Bank of America Corp.’s strategists.While U.S. equities saw positive returns during previous periods of rate increases, the key risk this time round is that the Federal Reserve will be...

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What Markets Need to Rally | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-03-03

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(3/3/22) Markets liked what Jerome Powell had to say to Congress, and continue to consolidate off over-sold conditions of a few days ago, holding support from January's lows. Markets remain in a bullish position, with stock buy backs very supportive of large-caps. Despite geopolitics and inflationary pressures, markets have held their own, going through a corrective process. However, there is still risk to the downside: There are three resistance...

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