Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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The Price-Wage Spiral

2022-08-25

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The Jackson Hole Symposium launches today; Is the Fed going to pivot? NVIDIA forecasting lower earnings; the good news/bad news about student loan forgiveness and the problem with "free" money; Cracker Barrel's veggie sausage; challenges for the Jackson Hole in the wall gang: Transitioning to a new, lasting reality w Inflation and the price-wage spiral;

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Jackson Hole Preview Episode (8/25/22): Market Analysis & Commentary from RIA Advisors Chief Inve…

2022-08-25

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#Markets #Money #Investment_Advice

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Targeting 4,000 to 4,160 as We Head Into Jackson Hole | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-24

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As predicted, markets finished lower on Tuesday, violating the 20-DMA and setting up markets for a moderate rebound today. 4,160 will be the new resistance level. If sell-signals remain in place through the end of the week, that will suggest more weakness in markets, and more downward pressure on prices.

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Scary Consequences of Student Loan Forgiveness

2022-08-24

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Markets have a laser-focus on upcoming Jackson Hole conference; is the Fed going to get more aggressive in dealing with inflation? Expectations for a more persistent level of inflation The Housing market is in the early stages of recession.

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Markets Slicing Through Support Levels | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-23

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(8/23/22) Friday's market sell-off is followed by mayhem on Monday, with the worst day of performance since the market found its bottom back in July. Markets sliced clean through levels of support yesterday and this morning are poised for a mild opening; we don't think it will be able to stick, however, as the 20-DMA is retested. Will Markets follow the trendline established for the past 20-weeks? The 100-DMA of 4080 is likely a more logical level...

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How to Navigate Through Stagflation

2022-08-23

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(8/23/22) Markets slice through the 100-DMA; potential impact of the coming Jackson Hole extravaganza; We export inflation and import cheap stuff; how to navigate through stagflation; back to college, self-checking at Walmart, Full-service filling stations; the saga of Meme Stocks; don't try to always make money in the market; outperforming a down market is key to success. Watch for slower economic growth as Fed continues to tighten; how Zoome...

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Has the 9-week Rally Ended? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-22

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(8/22/22) Over-extended markets sold off on Friday after breaching the 50-DMA, and ran into resistance at the 200-DMA. This 9-week rally aligns with similar bear market rallies historically; one thing we're looking for is a sell-signal in the MACD indicator. The money flow indicator is also showing a sell-signal, suggesting some downward pressure follow-through this morning (futures are pointing lower.) The first support test will be at the 20-DMA....

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The Reddit Run-up on AMC Stock

2022-08-22

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(8/22/22) The Roberts' House Squirrel Infestation; Historic stats on Bear Market Rallies: 30% of the 17% market gain is on the backs of four stocks: Apple, Meta, Microsoft, & Tesla; Why 40% of executives are rescinding job offers; why we'll be lucky to hit 1% GDP in 2023; check out our "Five for Friday" report; comparing stock fundamentals to ETF performance; what's going to happen when ETF's sell-off? How Reddit ran up the price of...

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Six Guidelines for the Bank of Mom & Dad

2022-08-20

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Why the markets are feeling very "beary;" Fed pivot talk is ridiculous; future Jobs cuts are going to be more white-collar; spending habits are shifting; The cost of raising children should be birth control enough; What happens when the Bank of Mom & Dad helps kids with mortgages;

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The False Paradigm of the Minimum Wage | Lance’s Rants 8-18-22

2022-08-18

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(8/18/22) Apple is considering "Friend-shoring" production of its iPods and other devices to Vietnam because the labor is cheaper and the political risks are lower. It's no longer PC to describe the movement of production to foreign countries as "off-shoring." The "re-shoring" of production to the US is economically un-feasible because of the high cost of labor. It is a false-paradigm that everyone deserves a living...

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FOMC Meeting Minutes: Fed Speak Translation | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-18

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(8/18/22) If the Fed's most recent FOMC Meeting Minutes were a fairytale, it might be an adaptation of The Three Bears--something for Goldilocks and everyone else. Markets rallied right into the 200-dma, selling off in the morning, as the Fed fed both hawks and doves in its FOMC Meeting minutes release: "Moving to a restrictive policy stance is required" inspired the hawks, but does not suggest a Fed picot anytime soon. But, "the...

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“Moderation” is a Polite Term for “Recession”

2022-08-18

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(8/18/22) It's College Move-in Week; parsing the latest meeting minutes of the FOMC: Markets rally despite economic backdrop; why retail sales numbers aren't what they seem: We're spending more, getting less; the lag-effect of Fed policy; How FOMC Meeting minutes are "crafted" for release; Hawks and Doves: There's something for everyone. Code words the Fed uses. Ice cream vs Bagels; Cheeseburgers vs salads; health in retirement; Gravity...

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Will the FOMC Meeting Minutes Reveal a Dovish Stance?| 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-17

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(8/17/22) Markets are already up 17% from the last lows, making for an incredible run-up and an about-face from mid-July's pessimism to the current state of euphoria. Two things to keep in mind today: The most recent FOMC Meeting minutes will be revealed, with many looking for a more dovish slant from the Fed, anticipating a stall in rate hikes sooner than later. Markets are now two standard deviations above the 50-DMA, and markets will have...

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Should You Be “All-In” Now?

2022-08-17

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(8/17/22) Retailers' earnings reports and forecasts are painting a gloomy picture in contrast to Wall Street's cheerleaders: Target's earnings (and what they did to liquidate surplus inventory) is a cautionary tale. FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released today, expected to reveal the Fed's proclivities about future rate hikes. If you assume we're in a Bear market, you must also presume there has to be a rally. Should you be al-in, or not? How...

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Market Correction Would Be No Surprise | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-16

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(8/16/22) Markets have been on a rallying tear since May; unfortunately, these bull rallies do not have an unlimited life, and after ten-weeks of this action, markets are very over-bought, and at this point, historically, there have always been corrections along the way to re-test support. So a correction to about 4,000 on the S&P would be no surprise and would provide a decent entry point for adding a little more equity exposure to your...

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Biden Bill Will Cause HIGHER Inflation (8/16/22)

2022-08-16

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(8/16/22) We might not yet be in Recession, but the stage is being set for one; if the Fed has to cut rates, the underlying reason will not bode well for markets. What has happened to demand? Biden bill to reduce inflation will not have much effect, but will cause higher inflation, negative GDP, and job losses; will also result in more IRS audits for middle class. Congress can defund in 2024. 2:59 - In Search of Markets' Higher High: Correction to...

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Markets Bullish on a Short Term Basis| 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-15

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(8/15/22) arkets are very bullish on a short-term basis, and are set to test the 200-DA; that's hard to believe with all the negative economic data that's currently about. Think that's weird? arkets are markets, and they tend to lead the economy, rather than lag. But it's way too early to determine whether markets are telling us the worst of the economic downdraft is behind us. If markets continue to advance, a pullback to support would then...

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Why Earnings Estimates Don’t Matter Any More

2022-08-15

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(8/15/22) Will the impact of inflation on household budgets spur the Fed to back-off rate hike campaign? The bigger question is when might the Fed not just stop the hikes, but reverse the direction of rates? Technical commentary on the Bull vs Bears Battle Royale: How does a bull market continue amidst overwhelming, negative indicators? What could possibly go wrong with the IRS hiring armed agents with the ability to use deadly force? The...

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Why the IRS Needs Armed Agents

2022-08-13

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Markets' counter-trend rally despite no changes fundamentally; "Inflation" and "easing" shouldn't be in the same sentence; Janet Yellen as "Grand Theft Granny:" Why the IRS needs armed agents; now is the time for all good men to trim equity exposure; why "The Flintstones," "Bewitched," and "Leave it to Beaver" could never be produced today;

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Inflation Lower Than Expected | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-11

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(8/11/22) Inflation came in less than expected, spurring stocks higher, as expected. The 0% print was almost entirely due to falling energy prices, but without that variable, CPI actually rose a bit, with Core CPI still in positive territory.

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