Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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4-14-25 Yield Curve Signals Ongoing Risk

2025-04-14

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Discover why yield spreads and the inverted yield curve may be signaling continued recession risk in 2025. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer Watch the complete show on our YouTube channel here: &list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=6s ➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts:...

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4-14-25 Yield Spreads Suggest The Risk Isn’t Over Yet

2025-04-14

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Are we heading toward a recession in 2025? In this episode, Lance Roberts explores why yield curve inversions and widening credit spreads suggest the risk isn’t over yet, what the bond market is telling investors, and how these indicators have predicted past recessions and what it could mean for your portfolio. Lance covers: * The Tariff impact on Apple * The mistake of confusing trade deficits with tariffs * Markets' relief rally * Tariffs paused...

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Yield Spreads Suggest The Risk Isn’t Over Yet

2025-04-14

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2025-04-14

In November last year, I discussed the importance of yield spreads, historically the market's "early warning system." To wit:" "Yield spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. A credit spread refers to the difference in yield between two bonds of similar maturity but different credit quality. This comparison often …

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The Dollar And Inflation: Don’t Believe The Hype

2025-04-14

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2025-04-14

Recently, we have seen claims that the "collapsing" dollar will cause inflation. While a weaker dollar can create inflation, many factors impact prices. Accordingly, we have two issues with such dire statements. First, the dollar is not collapsing. Second, we have experienced much more significant dollar declines without an inflationary impulse. The dollar has fallen …

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Basis Trade Sent Yields Soaring – Is It A Warning?

2025-04-11

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2025-04-11

Inside This Week's Bull Bear Report Tariff Reprieve Sends Stocks Surging Last week, we noted that the market was not expecting retaliation from China. "Rather than coming to the table to negotiate, China responded with a reciprocal 34% tariff on the U.S. plus export controls on rare earth metals needed for technological production. China is …

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4-11-25 The Best Tariff Tactic May Be a Roth Conversion

2025-04-11

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Quarterly reporting season is upon us, with JP Morgan setting the tone for earnings, as the tariff tango with China continues; how are advisors handling the turmoil? Consumer front loading pulling forward future demand will lead to economic irregularities later. Richard and Matt discuss dealing effectively during corrections and taking advantage of tax efficiencies; creating a "loss bank;" paying taxes means you're making money. cutting...

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The Pause Heard Around The World

2025-04-11

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2025-04-11

The S&P 500 surged 8.5% off its lows on Wednesday as the administration announced a 90-day tariff pause for all countries except China. Sound familiar? In Tuesday's Commentary, we wrote: For those of you with bearish nightmares, we share one important takeaway from Monday’s market roller coaster. While there is a good chance the market …

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The Consumer Is Tapping Out

2025-04-11

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2025-04-11

The recent implementation of tariffs has the media buzzing about increased recession odds as the consumer faces potentially higher costs. While recent economic reports, like the latest employment report, still show robust growth, those data points run with a lag that hasn't yet caught up with reality. As we have discussed, the American consumer is …

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4-9-25 What is the Basis Trade?

2025-04-10

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There are cracks appearing in the treasury market from the basis trade; what will the Fed do? Lance explains the latest gyrations in markets and the sharp rise in bond yields. Basis trade explained; appears to be at 20X leverage: Is someone getting margin calls and liquidating? Tariffs are not the issue here; will the Fed step in? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer...

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4-10-25 Monster Rally or Market Bottom?

2025-04-10

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What really happened behind the scenes as President Trump seemingly performed an about-face on tariffs, sending markets zming on Wednesday: Markets enjoyed their 3rd best performance since WW-2, erasing all the losses since tariffs were first announced last week. Lance reviews the Basis Trade terror, not tariffs, that caused the turn about. The correction cycle is likely not over, however; markets are challenging resistance. Lance reviews what RIA...

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Understanding the 200-Day Moving Average and Its Impact on Stock Positions

2025-04-10

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📈 Remember the cardinal rule: break the 200-day moving average, exit your position! 🚨 Beware of stop losses being hunted by trading algorithms. 💻 #StockMarketTips #TradingPsychology Watch the entire show here: h https://cstu.io/81b558 YouTube channel = @ TheRealInvestmentShow

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Is The Bond Basis Trade Freaking Out The Bond Market?

2025-04-10

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2025-04-10

What is up with the bond market? Many rumors are floating around. For instance, some claim China is selling Treasury bonds in retaliation for increased tariffs. Another rumor claims the bond market is besieged by investors raising money for equity margin calls. While both are plausible, negative interest rate swap spreads point to liquidity problems. …

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How to Use Tax-Loss Harvesting to Reduce Your Tax Liability

2025-04-10

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2025-04-10

For investors looking to reduce tax liability while keeping their portfolios optimized for growth, a tax-loss harvesting strategy can be a valuable tool. By strategically selling underperforming investments to offset capital gains, investors can minimize their tax burden and improve their after-tax returns. Understanding how tax-loss harvesting works, when to apply it, and how it …

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4-9-25 Liquidity Cracks

2025-04-09

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China retaliates to Trump's retaliation to China's tit-for-tat response to tariffs; downward pressure continues as markets trying to recalibrate with a moving tariff target; there are cracks appearing in the treasury market from the basis trade; what will the Fed do? Lance explains the latest gyrations in markets and the sharp rise in bond yields. Basis trade explained; appears to be at 20X leverage: Is someone getting margin calls and liquidating?...

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One Important Takeaway From Manic Monday

2025-04-09

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2025-04-09

For those of you with bearish nightmares, we share one important takeaway from Monday's market roller coaster. While there is a good chance the market may explore new lows over the coming months, we must appreciate that there is plenty of fuel for a sizeable bounce. The one piece of important evidence supporting this thesis …

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Trumps Economic Revolution: Unraveling A Blessing And A Curse

2025-04-09

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2025-04-09

Deuteronomy 11:26 – “Behold, I set before you this day a blessing and a curse.” This biblical passage has been used countless times to describe the global economic structure in place since 1944. As World War II raged and Britain suffered significant financial stress, the allied forces signed the Bretton Woods Agreement. As part of …

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4-8-25 Markets Rally; What’s Next?

2025-04-08

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Markets jumped on a false report of a 90-day wait on tariffs, and took investors on a roller-coaster ride Monday.ance Roberts & Jonathan Penn explore the possibilities, plus why should shouldn't even LOOK at your portfolio right now...also, is a recession coming? That is the billion-dollar question investors now face. One gauge to help us answer the question is corporate bond yield spreads. When the yield differential between corporate bond...

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The Ultimate Guide to Planning for Early Retirement and Financial Independence

2025-04-08

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2025-04-08

Achieving financial independence and early retirement is a goal for many, but it requires strategic planning, disciplined saving, and careful investing. The idea of retiring early—whether in your 50s, 40s, or even 30s—means building a solid financial foundation that allows you to step away from traditional employment without worrying about running out of money. Early …

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Corporate Yield Spreads Start To Widen

2025-04-08

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2025-04-08

Is a recession coming? That is the billion-dollar question investors now face. One gauge to help us answer the question is corporate bond yield spreads. When the yield differential between corporate bond yields and risk-free Treasury bonds widens significantly, it signals that bond investors are taking a risk-averse stance. Simply, they are pricing higher odds …

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4-7-25 Dealing with the Unexpected

2025-04-07

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This is a special, excerpted report from Monday's broadcast: Lance Roberts discusses markets' hope and fear (charts); lessons investors can learn from the Coog's vs Duke. Wall Street will find a narrative to rally markets, and then sell. A look at our Fear/Greed indicator (and how it differs from others'); probabilities vs possibilities, the risk range report. We're looking for a reflex rally now, and Lance explains the next strategy. 0:49 -...

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