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Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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4-16-25 A Dozen Ways to Prepare for Recession

2025-04-16

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Lance Roberts' opening monologue covers Easter prep, DMA Death Corsses, and rising recession risk; an earnings season up date (so far, okay), the lack of forward guidance, and negative earnings revisions (except in the Russell 2000); the significance of the 50-DMA crossing below the 200-DMA: Know the context. Event-driven vs. Construct-driven corrections; Scott Bessent and tariffs, tax cuts, and deregulation; what if the US and China reach an...

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Rare Earth Metals: Does China Have The Trump Card?

2025-04-16

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2025-04-16

The chart below, courtesy of JP Morgan Asset Management, highlights how much the US relies on certain rare earth metal imports from China and other nations. It also lists some of the products the metals are needed for. As the chart shows, imports play a critical role in securing our rare earth metal needs. Furthermore, …

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Swaps And Basis Trades Warn Of Mounting Liquidity Problems

2025-04-16

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2025-04-16

Extreme volatility in a highly leveraged financial system inevitably results in liquidity issues. Hence, recent instability is generating mounting signals that liquidity is becoming scarce. This is most evident in the sharp increase in risk-free Treasury yields over the last week. Before the yield surge, liquidity problem warnings appeared in lesser-followed places like Treasury basis …

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4-15-25 You Don’t Make Money Until You Sell

2025-04-15

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Watching your portfolio grow is great, but remember — those gains aren’t real until you hit that sell button. Markets can turn fast. Profits can vanish even faster. Smart investors know when to take money off the table. Lance Roberts reveals the difference between unrealized vs realized gains, why taking profits matters, and how smart investors lock in returns before the market turns. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance...

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4-15-25 It’s Tax Day!

2025-04-15

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It's Tax Day 2025 — are you ready? Lance Roberts and Jonathan Penn review last-minute tax tips, filing strategies, and how to avoid costly IRS penalties. But frankly, if you haven't gotten it done by today... There are market benefits from Tax Day, as some tax return money finds its way back into play; stock buy back will also supply some support to markets. In an event-driven market (tariffs), have we passed the markets' low? How the US Dollar is...

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Volatility Boosts Bank Bottom Lines

2025-04-15

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2025-04-15

Despite, or actually because of, the recent market turmoil, many large banks and brokers reported better-than-expected earnings. Market volatility provided a nice boost to trading revenue, which helped offset weakness in other business lines. Goldman Sachs, reporting earnings on Monday, said their equity trading revenue rose 27% from the prior quarter. JP Morgan and Morgan …

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How to Protect Your Investment Portfolio from Market Volatility

2025-04-15

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2025-04-15

Market volatility is an inevitable part of investing. While short-term fluctuations can create uncertainty, a well-structured portfolio can help protect investments from volatility and ensure long-term financial stability. Managing market fluctuations requires a disciplined approach that includes diversification, asset allocation, and risk management techniques. In this guide, we’ll explore why markets fluctuate, how investors can …...

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4-14-25 Yield Curve Signals Ongoing Risk

2025-04-14

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Discover why yield spreads and the inverted yield curve may be signaling continued recession risk in 2025. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer Watch the complete show on our YouTube channel here: &list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=6s ➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts:...

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4-14-25 Yield Spreads Suggest The Risk Isn’t Over Yet

2025-04-14

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Are we heading toward a recession in 2025? In this episode, Lance Roberts explores why yield curve inversions and widening credit spreads suggest the risk isn’t over yet, what the bond market is telling investors, and how these indicators have predicted past recessions and what it could mean for your portfolio. Lance covers: * The Tariff impact on Apple * The mistake of confusing trade deficits with tariffs * Markets' relief rally * Tariffs paused...

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Yield Spreads Suggest The Risk Isn’t Over Yet

2025-04-14

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2025-04-14

In November last year, I discussed the importance of yield spreads, historically the market's "early warning system." To wit:" "Yield spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. A credit spread refers to the difference in yield between two bonds of similar maturity but different credit quality. This comparison often …

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The Dollar And Inflation: Don’t Believe The Hype

2025-04-14

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2025-04-14

Recently, we have seen claims that the "collapsing" dollar will cause inflation. While a weaker dollar can create inflation, many factors impact prices. Accordingly, we have two issues with such dire statements. First, the dollar is not collapsing. Second, we have experienced much more significant dollar declines without an inflationary impulse. The dollar has fallen …

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Basis Trade Sent Yields Soaring – Is It A Warning?

2025-04-11

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2025-04-11

Inside This Week's Bull Bear Report Tariff Reprieve Sends Stocks Surging Last week, we noted that the market was not expecting retaliation from China. "Rather than coming to the table to negotiate, China responded with a reciprocal 34% tariff on the U.S. plus export controls on rare earth metals needed for technological production. China is …

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4-11-25 The Best Tariff Tactic May Be a Roth Conversion

2025-04-11

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Quarterly reporting season is upon us, with JP Morgan setting the tone for earnings, as the tariff tango with China continues; how are advisors handling the turmoil? Consumer front loading pulling forward future demand will lead to economic irregularities later. Richard and Matt discuss dealing effectively during corrections and taking advantage of tax efficiencies; creating a "loss bank;" paying taxes means you're making money. cutting...

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The Pause Heard Around The World

2025-04-11

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2025-04-11

The S&P 500 surged 8.5% off its lows on Wednesday as the administration announced a 90-day tariff pause for all countries except China. Sound familiar? In Tuesday's Commentary, we wrote: For those of you with bearish nightmares, we share one important takeaway from Monday’s market roller coaster. While there is a good chance the market …

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The Consumer Is Tapping Out

2025-04-11

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2025-04-11

The recent implementation of tariffs has the media buzzing about increased recession odds as the consumer faces potentially higher costs. While recent economic reports, like the latest employment report, still show robust growth, those data points run with a lag that hasn't yet caught up with reality. As we have discussed, the American consumer is …

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4-9-25 What is the Basis Trade?

2025-04-10

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There are cracks appearing in the treasury market from the basis trade; what will the Fed do? Lance explains the latest gyrations in markets and the sharp rise in bond yields. Basis trade explained; appears to be at 20X leverage: Is someone getting margin calls and liquidating? Tariffs are not the issue here; will the Fed step in? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer...

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4-10-25 Monster Rally or Market Bottom?

2025-04-10

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What really happened behind the scenes as President Trump seemingly performed an about-face on tariffs, sending markets zming on Wednesday: Markets enjoyed their 3rd best performance since WW-2, erasing all the losses since tariffs were first announced last week. Lance reviews the Basis Trade terror, not tariffs, that caused the turn about. The correction cycle is likely not over, however; markets are challenging resistance. Lance reviews what RIA...

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Understanding the 200-Day Moving Average and Its Impact on Stock Positions

2025-04-10

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📈 Remember the cardinal rule: break the 200-day moving average, exit your position! 🚨 Beware of stop losses being hunted by trading algorithms. 💻 #StockMarketTips #TradingPsychology Watch the entire show here: h https://cstu.io/81b558 YouTube channel = @ TheRealInvestmentShow

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Is The Bond Basis Trade Freaking Out The Bond Market?

2025-04-10

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2025-04-10

What is up with the bond market? Many rumors are floating around. For instance, some claim China is selling Treasury bonds in retaliation for increased tariffs. Another rumor claims the bond market is besieged by investors raising money for equity margin calls. While both are plausible, negative interest rate swap spreads point to liquidity problems. …

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How to Use Tax-Loss Harvesting to Reduce Your Tax Liability

2025-04-10

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2025-04-10

For investors looking to reduce tax liability while keeping their portfolios optimized for growth, a tax-loss harvesting strategy can be a valuable tool. By strategically selling underperforming investments to offset capital gains, investors can minimize their tax burden and improve their after-tax returns. Understanding how tax-loss harvesting works, when to apply it, and how it …

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