Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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Judges Trump Trump’s Tariffs

2025-05-30

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2025-05-30

On Wednesday afternoon, the judges from the US Court of International Trade struck down some of President Trump's tariffs. Notably, the judge's actions included an injunction on the "Liberation Day" tariffs and specific tariffs targeting China, Mexico, and Canada. The court's three judges found that Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers …

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5-29-25 Narratives or Fundamentals: What Matters Most?

2025-05-29

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Narratives DO matter: When the Fed issues a statement, markets respond; but that narrative will change very quickly. Over the long-haul, the fundamentals of earnings growth, forward expectations of earnings growth, rates, and valuations; those are what matter over the long-term. Hosted by Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube...

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5-29-29 Nvidia Earnings: The Lost Segment

2025-05-29

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We encountered technical issues getting this morning's live-stream up and running. Consequently, many of you missed the start of the show, including Lance Roberts' summary of Nvidia's earnings report last night, and potential market reaction today. Fortunately, we were independently recording the show, and are pleased to post "The Lost Segment" from Thursday's show: 0:18 - Trump Tariffs vs Trade Court 4:26 - Premarket Commentary: Nvidia...

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5-29-25 The Death of Narratives

2025-05-29

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President Trump's tariffs are being negated by Trade Courts, and markets feel inspired. Nvidia reports earnings, and is poised for a 6% gain today; we're still on the cusp of all that AI can do. Lance and Michael discuss the importance of recognizing and shutting out the narratives that distract investors; why we all seem to need a reason "why" things are as they are. Commentary on Nvidia's technology "moat;" comparisons to...

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Consumers Are Not As Gloomy

2025-05-29

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2025-05-29

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index surged from 85.7 to 98.0. Such was the largest one-month increase since 2009! Clearly, progress on trade deals and the delay in implementing tariffs spurred the increase. Moreover, the recovering stock market also boosted consumer confidence. However, bear in mind that the index is coming off its lowest level …

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5-28-25 What If AI Factories Re-Define Our Industries

2025-05-28

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757AI data centers are not the way to go; AI Factories are. AI Factories can exponentially increase computing power and thereby increase productivity. AI has the potential to be the next leg of the Industrial Revolution. Hosted by Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO w Senior Financial Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced...

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5-28-25 Nvidia Day!

2025-05-28

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It's “Nvidia Day!” The Big Dog in the Tall Grass for AI reports earnings after the closing bell today. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff delve into the anticipation surrounding Nvidia's upcoming earnings report, set to be released after today's market close. We'll explore market expectations, potential impacts on NVDA stock, and the broader implications for the AI and semiconductor sectors. Also a discussion about the inimitable Mrs. Roberts, and...

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Narratives vs. Fundamentals: Battle In The Bond Market

2025-05-28

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2025-05-28

On January 8, 2025, we answered many of your questions with an article entitled Why Are Bond Yields Rising? Since then, bond yields initially fell but have recently risen back to early January levels. Unsurprisingly, our email boxes are again filled with the same questions we got in early January. This article presents a different …

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Assessing Credit Spreads After The USA Downgrade

2025-05-28

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2025-05-28

A reader of our Daily Commentary asked how we measure corporate credit spreads in light of the Moody's downgrade of the USA credit rating. Specifically, "Without having a AAA benchmark to calculate the credit spread of corporate bonds against, what other measure can help me assessing stress in the corporate bond market." First its important …

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5-27-25 More Money is Lost Trying to Avoid Corrections than In Corrections

2025-05-27

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Our goal is to grow money in the markets that are presented to us today and adjust in the future. Peter Lynch is credited for noting that more money is lost avoiding correction than that is lost during correction. Corrections are never as bad as expected, and the really bad ones that are so feared rarely ever occur. Hosted by Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO w Senior Financial Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton,...

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The Anchoring Problem & How to Solve It

2025-05-27

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Discover the hidden influence of anchoring bias on investment decisions and learn actionable strategies to overcome it. Lance Roberts and Jonathan Penn share behavioral finance concepts and provide practical solutions for navigating cognitive pitfalls in today’s markets. #AnchoringBias #BehavioralFinance #CognitiveBiases #InvestmentPsychology #SmartInvesting

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How to Balance Growth and Safety in Your Retirement Portfolio

2025-05-27

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2025-05-27

As retirement approaches—or begins—investors often find themselves at a crossroads: How can you preserve the wealth you’ve accumulated while still ensuring it continues to grow? Striking the right balance between growth and safety in your retirement portfolio is one of the most important financial decisions you'll make. The key is understanding the trade-offs and creating …

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The EU And Apple Hit With Tariffs

2025-05-27

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2025-05-27

After a bout of relative market tranquility, investors were rudely awakened Friday with a barrage of new tariff actions targeting the EU and Apple. Via Truth Social, Trump recommended a 50% tariff on European Union imports starting June 1, 2025, and a 25% tariff on all iPhones made outside the US. Regarding the EU, the … Continue reading...

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The Stealth Bear Market

2025-05-26

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2025-05-26

Is this a "stealth" bear market? Of course, you may be asking yourself what I mean by that. Historically, bear markets have tended to be pretty evident, as highlighted in the chart below. These bear markets are often more protracted affairs that lead to investors developing profoundly negative sentiment towards markets. This article will use …

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An Unstoppable Bull Market?

2025-05-24

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2025-05-24

Inside This Week's Bull Bear Report Even Trump Can't Kill The Rally Last week, we discussed how the rally had repaired much of the previous damage following the correction. As we noted: "This past week, the market continued its advance. There is little reason to be bearish with key overhead resistance levels broken. However, as …

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5-23-25 The CBO is About as Accurate as a Meteorologist

2025-05-23

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Malcolm Gladwell once wrote that weather forecasters are only good for about three days, after which, the accuracy are their predictions are no better than a coin toss. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) track record is no better. So how can the CBO reliably predict what the US economy will be like by 2055? Hosted by Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive...

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5-23-25 Debunking Bad Bond Narratives

2025-05-23

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Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz discuss whether or not bonds are a good buy now, with a composite bond market outlook, and the relationship of interest rates and bond prices. Headlines herald a bond auction that "goes badly." Bond auctions tell you absolutely nothing about what's going on with bonds. Another "scary" headline about the rising gap between USD-JPY and Ten Year yields: The reality is there is a somewhat loose...

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5-23-25 Are There Warts on The One Big Beautiful Bill?

2025-05-23

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Are there hidden flaws in the One Big Beautiful Spending Bill? Danny Ratliff & Jonathan Penn expose what they're not telling you, diving into the fine print of the 2025 federal spending bill. Is it as beautiful as they claim—or are there costly warts hidden beneath the surface? Danny & Jon break down the economic risks inherent in the politics and pork. 0:18 - Will Investors Pause for Memorial Day Weekend? 11:55 - Wart on the One Big...

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Why Are Yields Surging In Japan?

2025-05-23

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2025-05-23

The short answer is that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is letting the market set yields. For years, the BOJ has run an extremely loose monetary policy, including capping yields at extremely low levels and negative interest rates. Limited economic growth and disinflation made such a policy possible. However, inflationary pressures and a weak yen …

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The Anchoring Problem And How To Solve It

2025-05-23

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2025-05-23

Market perspective is essential in avoiding investing mistakes. With the media constantly pushing a “Markets In Turmoil” narrative, it’s no wonder that investor sentiment recently reached some of the lowest levels since the financial crisis. The following chart is the z-score of the retail and professional investor sentiment composite index of bullish sentiment. Notably, we …

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