Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

The Hidden Dangers of Comparing Investments to Indexes

Avoid tracking indexes over time! Brokerage firms benefit from your trades, not you. Money in motion creates fees. Watch the entire show here: https://cstu.io/e9bf37 YouTube channel = @ TheRealInvestmentShow

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9-27-24 Is Micro-Retirement Right for You?

Jonthan & Jonathan stand in for Danny & Rich with a preview of today's PCE report, and inklings of dissent within the Fed on the latest rate cut. The handwriting is on the wall for Savers; time to reassess strategies as interest rates fall. Ho will the election outcomes affect your financial planning? Worst-case scenario: a contested election (the markets hate uncertainty). With the ebb and flow of markets, we make adjustments on the fly,...

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Tax Cuts – An Examination Of The 2017 TCJA Impact

An analysis of Presidential Candidate Trump’s policy proposals recently suggests that tax cuts will increase the deficit. While the raw analysis is correct, as it subtracts the potential for reduced tax collections from the tariff revenue, it ignores the impact on economic growth. There is much rhetoric about the impact of tax cuts, mostly centering around “only benefitting the rich.” While it may seem that “the rich” are the ones who...

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Differences Between Dividends and Buybacks: What Every Investor Should Know

📈 Understanding dividends vs buybacks! 💰💸 Dividends = return of capital 🤝 Buybacks = no return to you 🤔 #Investing101 #FinancialLiteracy Watch the entire show here: https://cstu.io/27237a YouTube channel = @ TheRealInvestmentShow

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9-26-24 Bull Steepener Alert: How Agency REITs Can Supercharge Your Portfolio

Plenty of things to move markets this week, including economic numbers and multiple Fed members' commentaries on why they did what they did last week. Are there more cuts to come? Millennial Earnings Season and no buy backs will impact markets soon. Is the AI trade dead? Don't count on it. Micron turned in a strong earnings report, and the CIA's own AI investments(?) are doing verrry well. Markets' short term Cup & Handle formation confirmed...

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Master Basic Technical Analysis to Understand Market Movements

Want to understand technical analysis? Learn the basics like moving averages, RSI, and MACD. It's like a window into the market activity! 📊💰 #StockMarket Watch the entire show here: https://cstu.io/5314f7 YouTube channel = @ TheRealInvestmentShow

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9-25-24 Rate Cuts & Recession Fears: Will Politics Drive Your Portfolio Off a Cliff?

Could the S&P hit 6,000 by the end of the year? Some prognosticators are saying so, hyped on exuberance, but consumer confidence is suggesting otherwise, and the foreshadowing is not great for the White House incumbent. Consumer spending & sentiment is incongruent with market expectations. Markets remain bullish, and another "Cup & Handle" formation has appeared, suggesting higher market prices in 2025. Markets, however, are...

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Agency REITs For A Bull Steepener

In our recent two-part series on the yield curve (Part One  Part Two) we discussed the four predominant yield curve shifts and what they imply about economic activity and monetary policy. Additionally, given the current bullish steepening trend of the yield curve, we provided data on how prior bull steepening environments impacted various stock indexes, sectors, and factors. Missing from our analysis was a discussion of a specific type of REIT...

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How Expiring Tax Cuts Affect Federal Revenue and You

Tax cuts expiring soon can hit many individuals hard. Are fair shares paying most taxes? Stay informed! 💸💡 #taxes #government #finance Watch the entire show here: https://cstu.io/77daa3 YouTube channel = @ TheRealInvestmentShow

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9-24-24 Who Benefits Most from the Latest Fed Rate Cut?

Oil prices conitnue to weaken in the face of optimism from analysts now forecasting an 18% gain in earnings in 2025. One of them is wrong. Lance and Jonathan discuss market clarity, Fed rate cuts, and the impact on the markets. Markets trade on the effective Fed rates; what's the sweet spot among market sectors when rates are coming down? Lance reviews Gold behaviors during rate cutting cycles; big surges in Gold lead to longer-term bases. Why the...

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50 Basis Point Rate Cut – A Review And Outlook

Last week, the Federal Reserve made a significant move by cutting its overnight lending rate by 50 basis points. This marks the first rate cut since 2020, signaling the Fed is aggressively supporting the economy amid a backdrop of softening economic data. For investors, understanding how similar rate cuts have historically impacted markets and which sectors tend to benefit is key to navigating the months ahead. In this post, we will explore the...

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Allocating Tax Dollars: Ensuring Funding Truly Helps American Citizens

Fair share of taxes spurs debate on where it goes. Investing in infrastructure or supporting veterans? What's your take? #Taxation #Debate Watch the entire show here: https://cstu.io/4aa4be YouTube channel = @ TheRealInvestmentShow

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9-23-24 Will this Week’s Data Support Fed Rationale for Cutting Rates?

We're entering the last-half of September, which is typically the weaker period of an already, traditionally weak month in the markets. Earnings seasons is about to beging, and Q3 estimates have already been slashed; this isn't 1995, though: Is the Fed's rationaled for cutting raates going to be validated by this week's economic data? Markets ended slightly lower on Friday, but still holding onto breakout level. Lance relate's Mrs. Robert's most...

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Divergence in Market Metrics: Sales, Earnings, and Economic Surprises

Market data showing divergence between economic, sales, and earnings surprises. Earnings high, sales and economic data declining. How long can this last? 📊 #MarketInsights Watch the entire show here: https://cstu.io/c58161 YouTube channel = @ TheRealInvestmentShow

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Invest Smart: Understanding Yield Curve Normalization and Current Market Trends

Economic update: Yield curves are normalizing, with only one curve still inverted. Stay informed with our upcoming newsletter! 📈 #EconomicUpdate Watch the entire show here: https://cstu.io/aff84f YouTube channel = @ TheRealInvestmentShow

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The Challenges of Adjusting Corporate Tax Rates in Government Negotiations

🌟 Understanding the complexities of tax policies and negotiations in government. Watch to learn more! 💼💬 #taxes #government #negotiations Watch the entire show here: https://cstu.io/e18216 YouTube channel = @ TheRealInvestmentShow

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9-20-24 Fed Rate Shock: How the Latest Cut Could Ignite or Crash Your Investments

Was the Fed's 50bps rate cut a just a "calibration?' We are still not at the Fed's target for unemployment; the Fed's action was in response to conditions, not to help anyone politically. What will the Fed do next? The 50bps cut does nothing to help consumers. What is the neutral, real interest rate, now? Why a Fed rate cut is really bad news. How now to fund your goals: Time to trim exposure and move to cash, awaiting opportunities....

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Market Declines And The Problem Of Time

When stock markets rise, the bullish narrative tends to dominate, overlooking the potential impact of market declines. This oversight stems from two main problems: a basic misunderstanding of math and time’s critical role in investing. Every year, I receive the following chart as a counterargument when discussing the importance of managing risk during a portfolio’s life cycle. The chart shows that while the average bull market advance is 149%, the...

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Nvidia: Why Goldman Sachs Calls It The Most Important Company in the Market

Big news on Nvidia's earnings! 🚀 According to Goldman Sachs, Nvidia is the most important company in the market right now. AI focus is key! #Nvidia #AI Watch the entire show here: &t=2083s YouTube channel = @ TheRealInvestmentShow

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9-19-24 What Does the Fed’s 50-bps Rate Cut Mean for Your Money?

The markets were right: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a half percent on Wednesday, and markets initially climbed, then sold off to end negative for the day. But after pondering overnight, market futures indicated a strong start to Thursday's trading day. If markets rally and hold through Friday, they will be set to hit all time highs, once again. Will we see rotation into other sectors as a by product? The Fed is trying to position...

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