Category Archive: 9a) Buy and Hold

(12/1/22) Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Wednesday implied concern about over-tightening the economy, a very different tack than was expressed just a month ago, when he said he WASN'T worried about over-tightening because the Fed had "tools to solve that problem." What's changed? Employment is showing signs of weakening, manufacturing is showing signs of slowing, so NOW he's worried about over-tightening. That's all market bulls needed to...

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(12/1/22) Is the Bull Market back? Fed Chairman Powell's somewhat dovish stance on Wednesday rallied markets to an over-3% gain, begging the question: What is Jerome Powell afraid of? Meanwhile, Markets have been consolidating for the past 6-months, and so remain. What markets DIDN'T hear was that rate hikes will continue at a slower pace, but WILL continue. Concerns about over-tightening overshadowed other issues, like the price-wage spiral, and...

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(11/30/22) A bevy of Economic reports could move markets today, but the biggest factor may well be what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has to say this afternoon. Personal Spending and the second estimate of Q3 GDP are released this morning. Powell's speech is the last public commentary before the Fed moves into a two-week blackout period ahead of their December 14 FOMC meeting, at which the next interest rate announcement will be made. Questions hoped...

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(11/30/22) The US beats Iran in World Soccer, and markets gird up for the last Fed speech of the year by Jerome Powell; that will be the big market mover today, in addition to economic releases of Q3 CPI and Home Sales; We looks at the concept of stock gifting for Christmas, along with the tax implications, qualified charitable donations, and end of year IRA contributions; other end-of-year hurdles include Required Minimum Distributions, and the...

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(11/29/22) Merriam-Webster's Word of the Year: "Gaslighting," which is what markets have been doing to investors all year. The Fed, however, has been very clear about its intention to continue to hike interest rates to stem the surging inflation. And yet...and yet, markets have continued to rally on hopes the Fed will "pivot." Markets finally got the message Monday and sold off. With the 20-DMA and the 100-DMA now very close...

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(11/29/22) Who's been gaslighting investors into thinking the Fed is going to suddenly pivot from its course of hiking rates to tame inflation? The Fed doesn't like it when markets rally, and the Fed has been clear more rate hikes are to come. Key to watch the VIX; why we're reducing exposure to energy stocks. The Fed is afraid inflation will become entrenched; we take a look at the history of markets and Fed responses; investors have been trained...

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(11/28/22) Markets rallied nicely in a holiday-shortened trading week with very light volume. Wednesday's release of the FOMC meeting minutes suggested the Fed would be reducing the pace of its interest rate hikes moving into next year. Markets continue in a very nicely defined uptrend. The 200-DMA will become a key level of resistance, keeping pressure on prices. Markets are getting over bought. The MACD Buy signal is getting over extended; any...

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(11/28/22) Was Black Friday a bust? It's make-or-break time for Wall Street: Retail Sales numbers are nominal, and do not taking into consideration inflation impact: 78% jump in lay-away purchasing; stocks are trying to re-price-in downwardly revised earnings estimates. FOMC Meeting Minutes tend to suggest a terminal interest rate of 5.25%. Why do retail sales matter? 70% of GDP; markets are trying to price-in "reversion to normalcy;" how...

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