Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Weekly Market Pulse: Nothing To See Here. No, Really. Nothing.

2021-04-12

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2021-04-12

The answer to the question, “What should I do to my portfolio today (this week, this month)? is almost always nothing. Humans, and especially portfolio managers, have a hard time believing that doing nothing is the right response….to anything…or nothing. We are programmed to believe that success comes from doing things, not not doing things.

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The Trial of the Chicago 7: fact v drama | The Economist

2021-04-10

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“The Trial of the Chicago 7” has been nominated for six Oscars. Aaron Sorkin, the film’s screenwriter and director, speaks to The Economist about the tension between historical accuracy and compelling drama. 00:00 - The Trial of the Chicago 7 00:51 - Why is the story still so relevant? 01:34 - How to adapt real events into drama 02:40 - Why the film deviates from historical fact 04:41 - Historical accuracy v artistic truth 05:41 - Altering events...

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Rechecking On Bill And His Newfound Followers

2021-04-09

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2021-04-09

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury has obtained some bids. Not long ago the certain harbinger of bond rout doom, the long end maybe has joined the rest of the world in its global pause if somewhat later than it had begun elsewhere (including, importantly, its own TIPS real yield backyard).

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Real Dollar ‘Privilege’ On Display (again)

2021-04-08

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2021-04-08

Personal Income, 2014-2021
Twenty-fifteen was an important yet completely misunderstood year. The Fed was going to have to become hawkish, according to its models, yet oil prices crashed and the dollar continued to rise. Both of those things were described as “transitory” by Janet Yellen, and that they were helpful or positive (rising dollar means cleanest dirty shirt!), but domestically American policymakers’ clear lack of conviction and courage about that rate hike regime...

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How AI is transforming the creative industries | The Economist

2021-04-07

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Artificial intelligence is helping humans make new kinds of art. It is more likely to emerge as a collaborator than a competitor for those working in creative industries. Film supported by Mishcon de Reya Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter: https://econ.st/3dm9rp9 Find our most recent science and technology coverage: https://econ.st/2QTAukd Listen to Babbage, The Economist’s science and technology podcast: https://econ.st/3ftaPJf...

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Jeff Snider On Salomon Brothers, Repo Market, Velocity, Shadow Money, Banks, FED (RCS Ep 117)

2021-04-07

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Topics- Salomon Brothers, the eurodollar market, treasuries, collateral, derivative market: Jeff tells the story of what happened in the early 90s with the Treasury, Warren Buffett, FED, Primary Dealer Banks, Repo market. Velocity: money supply, shadow money, measuring the monetary system. Repo market as a real monetary market: missing data in the FED’s measurements. FED funds rate, banking system, monetary details.

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Don’t Be the Victim of These 20 IRA Mistakes

2021-04-06

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2021-04-06

Hey! It’s just an IRA. What is there to know? You put money in and it’s a tax deduction, you get to take it out after 59 ½ without paying a penalty, and at 72 the IRS makes you take some out. What else could there be? In reality, there’s a lot more.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Buy The Rumor, Sell The News

2021-04-05

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2021-04-05

There’s an old saying on Wall Street that one should “buy the rumor, sell the news”, a pithy way to express the efficient market theorem. By the time an event arrives, whatever it may be, the market will have fully digested the news and incorporated it into current prices. And then the market will move on to anticipating the next event, large or small. What prompts this review of Wall Street folk wisdom is the most recent employment report.

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What’s Changed and What Hasn’t in a Tumultuous Year

2021-04-05

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2021-04-05

Inequality is America's Monster Id, and we're continuing to fuel its future rampage daily. What's changed and what hasn't in the past year? What hasn't changed is easy: 1. Wealth / income inequality is still increasing. (see chart #1 below) 2. Wages / labor's share of the economy is still plummeting as financial speculation's share has soared. (see chart #2 below)

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Our “Wealth”: Cloud Castles in the Sky

2021-04-04

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2021-04-04

Buyers know there will always be a greater fool willing to pay more for an over-valued asset because the Fed has promised us it will always be the greater fool. I realize nobody wants to hear that most of their "wealth" is nothing more than wispy Cloud Castles in the Sky that will dissipate in the faintest zephyr, but there it is: that which was conjured out of thin air will return to thin air.

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The UFO/Fed Connection

2021-04-02

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2021-04-02

M2 Money Stock, 1960-2020
Perhaps the aliens' keen interest in Earth's central bank magic and its potential for destruction results from a wager. You've probably noticed the recent uptick in UFO sightings and video recordings from aircraft of the extraordinary flight paths of these unidentified objects.

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The remote-working revolution: how to get it right | The Economist

2021-04-01

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It’s likely working from home is here to stay—for some workers, at least. But this “new normal” will have long-term implications for the relationship between employers and employees—from tax, to employment law, to physical and mental health. Read more of our coverage on business : https://econ.st/3weF8t0 Listen to our podcast “Homework: the future of the office”: https://econ.st/3ddJo3u How pandemic is affecting working mums:...

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Health, Wealth and What Kills Most of Us

2021-03-29

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2021-03-29

If health is wealth, and it most certainly is the highest form of wealth, then we would be well-served to take charge of our health-wealth in terms of what behaviors we can sustainably modify.

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Can vaccine passports kickstart the economy? | The Economist

2021-03-26

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Vaccine passports are likely to become a feature of everyday life as lockdowns are lifted across the world. But as “green passes” kick-start economies, what are the potential drawbacks? Read more of our coverage on coronavirus : https://econ.st/397Mkxq Listen to "The Jab", our new vaccine-related podcast series: https://econ.st/3w2ZiGC Listen to our daily podcast "The Intelligence": https://econ.st/3f7O1ic How well will...

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Israel’s election: what next for Netanyahu? | The Economist

2021-03-20

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Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, is campaigning in the country’s fourth election in two years—while also standing trial on corruption charges. Will this election mark a shift in Israel’s political landscape? 00:00 - Four elections in two years: why? 00:57 - How is Netanyahu polling? 01:59 - Netanyahu’s corruption charges 03:03 - What’s next for the corruption trial? 04:33 - What led to government collapse 05:34 - Where has Netanyahu...

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The future of shopping: what’s in store? | The Economist

2021-03-18

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The pandemic has upended the way people buy—online retail has soared as high-street shops and malls close. Brands are now racing to exploit one of the most important weapons in the battle for buyers: their customers’ data. Read our special report on the future of shopping here: https://econ.st/2Q8XQC2 Read more of our business coverage: https://econ.st/2OsXUw2 Listen to “Money Talks” weekly podcast on markets, the economy and business:...

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57a Jeff Snider Reacts Live to Paul Krugman Column

2021-03-17

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Will Stagnation Follow the Biden Boom? So asks New York Times columnist (and Nobel memorial prize winner) Paul Krugman. Jeff Snider listens and reacts to Krugman's lament that though the relief bill is done, recovery may be harder.

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Spending Here, Production There, and What Autos Have To Do With It

2021-03-17

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2021-03-17

US Retail Sales, 2016-2021
While the global inflation picture remains fixed at firmly normal (as in, disinflationary), US retail sales by contrast have been highly abnormal. You’d think given that, the consumer price part of the economic equation would, well, equate eventually price-wise.

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Ep 144- Yields Are Not Showing Inflation ft. Jeff Snider with Srivatsan Prakash

2021-03-16

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Jeff Snider is the Global Head of Research at Alhambra Investments, and well known for his disinflationary views and his Eurodollar University video. Here he talks about why yields' move higher isn't inflationary, why things are still not inflationary at all, and much more.

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Stimulus Addiction Disorder: The Debt-Disposable Earnings Pyramid

2021-03-16

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2021-03-16

The Debt - Disposable Earnings Pyramid
One glance at this chart explains why the status quo is locked on "run to fail" and will implode in a spectacular collapse of the unsustainable debt super-nova.. For those who suspect the status quo is unsustainable but aren't quite sure why, I've prepared a simple chart that explains the financial precariousness many sense.

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